Cause of Germany's striker crisis and potential solutions to Joachim Low

In a recent interview for "Augsburger Allgemeine", Germany U21 national coach Stefan Kuntz raised his concern regarding current youth development system in Germany...

"We are falling behind in terms of youth development compared to top nations," says Kuntz. "We focused too much on possession football and tactics but neglected some of the football basics: how to win duels, take advantage out of set-pieces and winning headers and the handling of one-on-one situations. Those are some of the missing qualities in our youth players."

When fans and media are questioning why Germany have failed to produce a top centre forward since Mario Gomez emerged in 2006, Kuntz’s statement gave everyone a brief idea of the fundamental issues within Germany.

The rise of possession oriented football is probably a cause and the false 9 experiment is just a cover up of these problems. As a matter of fact, the False 9 experiments can potential make the striker problem worse.

Last top class striker emerged in Germany was the rise of Mario Gomez in 2006/2007 season, 12 years ago

When your team are holding 70% possession each game, only playing pass-and-move, avoiding crosses and duels, require your strikers to drop deep into midfield for build-up game……the requirements you want from your strikers will be different.

On the other hand, when such tactics are widely used at youth level, young strikers would be less comfortable in terms of winning duels and playing with combativeness inside the penalty box.

Young strikers in Germany just don’t get used to that intensity and they aren’t trained that way, so how can Germany produce a traditional centre forward under such circumstances? 

Youth players look up to skillful players such as Iniesta or Messi, but you also need other elements to enhance your game. People failed to realize that you can’t win with 11 Iniestas on the pitch, and there are so many missing qualities in Germany’s games nowadays.

Other than strikers, defensive midfielders are another area required tough mentality, physicality and mobility. Germany have failed to produce such traditional “6” in years as well because of these missing qualities.

Youth players are encouraged to play possession based football, keeping high percentage of possession per match, avoiding duels and body contacts. As a result, our young midfielders do not have such training and practice in matches. 

Remember, difficult circumstances can temper one's will and ability.

Germany's U21 national coach Stefan Kuntz is not impressed with current Germany's youth development system

Former Dortmund and Leverkusen youth coach Peter Hyballa, who recently worked in DFB (Deutschland Fussball Bund), also expressed his concerns when he was interview by “Der Sportbuzzer” last week.

Hyballa thinks Clubs are placing too much tactical emphasis on youth matches, making U19 leagues like Mini-professional leagues (“Mini-Profifußball”). Every team have similar approach and this somewhat limit the hidden potential of young talents when they are restricted by tactics.

Youth players in Germany are not allowed to dribble, to cross and to make risky passes, coaches have become increasingly conservative. 

So Now, what can Germany do?

There are short-term solutions, but options are very limited. There are not too many strikers who can provide the missing qualities for Die Mannschaft. In recent years, Joachim Loew has tried "striker" options such as Kruse, Wagner, Reus, Stindl, Timo Werner, Petersen, Volland, Mario Goetze or the debutant against Netherlands in Mark Uth.

Nevertheless, Loew and his staff have failed to find the real solution at this problematic position. These used strikers have different issues : some are not exactly the type Germany need, some have disciplinary problems and some simply do not have adequate quality for the National Team.

Among the top 5 scorers in Bundesliga last season, 4 of them are German strikers. Germany do not lack strikers, but they lack certain qualities up front

The problem with Germany is not lacking strikers, in fact over 10 teams in Bundesliga start with strikers with German nationality. Furthermore, among the top 5 scorers in Bundesliga last season, 4 of them are German strikers: Nils Petersen, Kevin Volland, Mark Uth and Niclas Füllkrug. 

The problem with Germany is not having the strikers who can provide an X-factor and the qualities a traditional striker is required to have.

When everyone is talking about having a "Klose clone", i'd say we would be lucky enough to find a new Mario Gomez, a traditional targetman. Germany need someone who can play back-to-goal, can win duels against big defenders, can win headers, provide a "pivot" function to diverse scoring threats.

Best example is Olivier Giroud from France during 2018 World Cup, he is not a prolific striker by any means but he has his importance and function in France's attacking system; Mario Gomez always makes a positive impact when he was on the pitch with Germany as well.

These examples have somehow proven that you don't need a top class striker in the starting lineup, you just need certain qualities. 

The importance of targetmen is so much more than being an aerial threat or scoring threat alone. Consider die Nationalmannschaft desperately need someone who can do the dirty work up front, we need to target someone with a combination of size, aerial threat, pace, composure and finishing.

I would recommend two players out of the national pool. 

Niclas Füllkrug

The first recommended player is Niclas Füllkrug who plays for Hannover 96.  Niclas Füllkrug is a 25 year old centre forward who had a injury riddled career before his move to 2.Bundesliga side Nürnberg back in 2015, but managed to develop steadily since then. 

Last season,  Füllkrug managed to score 14 goals out of 26 starting appearances last season, finished as the league's 3rd top scorer along with Volland and Mark Uth.

Niclas Füllkrug can provide some of the missing qualities in this national team: He is tall (Standing at 189cm) and strong, very good at aerial duels and is a decent finisher.

Füllkrug had 170 aerial duels won in 2017/2018 season, ranked 4th in the entire Bundesliga, only behind Hannover teammate Salif Sane, Naldo (Schalke) and Caiuby (Augsburg).

This season thus far, Füllkrug is having as many as 42 aerial duels won, currently ranked 2nd in the league; on top of that, Füllkrug has 3 goals in 8 games for Hannover, a decent scoring rate given Hannover are a struggling side with less support from midfield. 

Borussia Mönchengladbach were interested in signing Füllkrug this summer, which was confirmed by Hannover's chairman Martin Kind. Borussia Mönchengladbach even wanted to break their transfer record for Füllkrug's service, but Füllkrug controversially rejected the move and extended his contract with Hannover until 2022 instead.

Füllkrug said Hannover's support to him during these years is a main factor why he rejected a move to other clubs after his breakout season. 

As Mario Gomez and Sandro Wagner have both retired from international football, 25 year-old Füllkrug is one of the very few young traditional targetmen in Germany's national pool.

Füllkrug's game is simple: win duels or headers, play back-to-goal and look for scoring opportunities. Probably something Germany need desperately on paper.

Davie Selke, a 23 year-old centre forward from Hertha Berlin, has similar strengths compared to Füllkrug. Standing at 194cm, Selke is not only a traditional centre forward but also reasonably mobile and quick.

Despite missing 7 matchdays in the beginning of last season, Selke still managed to score 10 goals in 27 appearances. Considered that as a decent achievement given the fact that he lacked match practice in his Leipzig days.

This season, Selke also injured himself during pre-season and out until mid-October. He is now recovered but has lost his place to the on-form veteran striker Vedad Ibisevic, Selke's progress during the season has to be closely monitored.

After the disappointing 3-0 defeat against Holland, Germany's football legend Klaus Fischer and current Under-21 national team coach Stefan Kuntz have both stated that Davie Selke is someone they expected to contribute for the national team. 

Wild Suggestion - Kai Havertz

19 year-old Kai Havertz from Leverkusen is a complete package. He has everything you want in footballer: size, aerial ability, pace, composure, vision, technique and finishing ability. 

Havertz has recently recorded a top speed of 35.02km/hr (21.76mph), which makes him the fastest player in Bundesliga so far this season. The boy wonder from Leverkusen also won the most aerial duels (89) among all the youth players (21 or below) in Europe's top 5 leagues in 2016/2017 season.

That was particularly impressive consider he was just 17 years old during that season and the other aerially dominant youngsters such as Christenen(85), Soyuncu(85) and Sanabria(76) are almost 3 years older than him. 

Standing at 188cm, Havertz is easily an aerial threat

Everything sounds perfect but wait......isn't Havertz an attacking midfielder? He is in his young career so everything is possible but i am talking about his potential to become an all-round striker for the future.

Let's don't forget even elite strikers such as Robert Lewandowski, Luis Suarez, Firmino and Diego Costa started their career at other positions before they became centre forwards. Still remember the days when Lewandowski first joined Dortmund in 2010, he was an attacking midfielder until Klopp converted him into an all-round striker.

In fact, in this season's Europa League group match against Ludogorets, young Havertz scored a goal which was incredibly "Lewandowksi-esuqe": played back-to-goal, keep close control in tight space, quick turn then the ball went straight at the far post with his supposedly weaker right foot. 

Remember Germany DO NOT lack strikers, there are plenty of German strikers starting in the league. What Germany lack is certain qualities in attack. In spite of being an attacking midfielder now, if Havertz gets to the box more frequently, his function can still be similar to strikers'.

Havertz himself should also be aware of his development in the long run. The attacking midfielder position (or we called the "10") is no longer a popular position in modern football. Teams tend to play with a 4-3-3(same as 4-1-4-1) or 3-4-3 formation these days.

Take Real Madrid and Barcelona as examples, they always play a defensive midfielder (a "6", such as Casemiro or Busquets) behind two central midfielders or box-to-box midfielders (two "8"s, such as Kroos and Modric). A reason behind this is to strengthen the core during midfield battles.  

Or even a traditional 4-4-2 formation, coaches tend to prefer having two defensively capable midfielders in the middle. Such trend is making the traditional "10"  obsolete. Less and less teams are playing 4-2-3-1 formation nowadays.

Bayer Leverkusen tried a 4-3-3 formation earlier this season. Coach Heiko Herrlich used Havertz as a central midfielder (an "8") but the outcome was not encouraging. Havertz is an attacking talent, pulling him away from the final third and exposing his defensive weaknesses was not a clever decision. 

erhaps Herrlich has noticed this as well, so he moved Havertz at more advanced position later on. 

If 4-3-3 or 3-4-3 is the preferred formation from Joachim Loew, to utilize Havert's strengths fully, Havertz has to play as one of the three attackers up front. Given Havertz's complete package, i do see his potential in becoming an all-round striker for Germany.

As a matter of fact, former Leverkusen coach Roger Schmidt and Germany Under-18 youth national team coach  Meikel Schönweitz  have both used Havertz as striker, but in a two-striker formation.

Havertz was used as striker for the Germany youth national team and Leverkusen. He shouldn't be too unfamiliar with the position

Standing at 188cm, Havertz has the ideal height for a centre forward; he is pacy, skilled, composed and clinical. Havertz is slightly lightweight at the moment, but its normal given his young age.

If the 19 year-old is able to gain another 5-6 kilograms of muscle, his physicality and combativeness can improve and makes him more comfortable playing back-to-goal and inside the penalty box against big defenders.  Havertz is not too far off at 82kg, but there is still room for improvement.   

Neglecting the importance of physicality and combativeness, is a big reason why Thomas Müller, Andre Schürrle and Marco Reus have failed to perform when they were given chance at the centre forward position.

They have not been asked to improve this area of their game simply because their coaches do not think they needed to.

How About Others?

Had Sandro Wagner didn't retire from international football, he might be a short-term solution at the striker position. By 2020, he will be 32. Not the youngest apparently but should still be serviceable.

If we look at the bigger picture, most of the world class strikers such as Lewandowski, Aguero, Mandzukic, Cavani, Suarez, Higuain, Giroud, Benzema and Diego Costa are all at similar age.

The striker drought doesn't just apply on Germany, but many other countries worldwide. Loew has publicly stated that a return of Sandro Wagner to the national team is impossible, so this is a less likely scenario. 

Mark Uth had his international debut against Netherlands, he showed that he is just another versatile forward who plays up top. We could not see anything separates him from the "False 9s" Loew had tried in the past.

He needs to improve his physicality and combativeness, currently he isn't strong enough to win duels and playing back-to-goal against top defenders.

Mark Uth's weaknesses can also apply on Nils Petersen, who was called up to Germany's World Cup preliminary roster, both have decent scoring instinct and height but are not complete enough as they lack qualities in other requires areas.

Strikers tried by Loew, all failed to make real impact due to different problems

Lars Stindl and Max Kruse are good strikers in Bundesliga, but both are not the type of strikers Germany need desperately. They are very technical and both are reasonably consistent performers, but they cannot bring any new elements to the current setup.

Volland and Maximilian Philipp have similar issues, they are not  exactly the most fearsome attackers inside the box.  These false 9s are versatile and technical enough to play every attacking position, but they lack specific qualities to enhance Germany's attack.

We have produced more than enough versatile forwards in the last couple of years, but we wouldn't produce too many tough-nosed, physical and dynamic strikers to provide something different since Miroslav Klose and Mario Gomez. 

Timo Werner? Thought he will be used as a winger in national team from now on. Nonetheless, he lacks technical ability to take-on defenders, which makes him rather limited on the flanks. He needs significant amount of space in order to utilise his only weapon: pace.

Timo Werner is a counter attacker, nothing more and nothing less. A striker who can only contribute under counter situations? We all know Germany's opponents at top level won't all us to have too many opportunities to play counter.

What worried me is Timo Werner was a decent aerial threat earlier in his career, he only had 0.6 aerial duels won per match last season and 0.4 aerial duels won per match this season thus far. If Werner has lost his aerial ability as statistics shown, he is extremely limited as an attacker at international level.  

In conclusion, Germany DO NOT lack strikers, but they lack strikers who can help them to play with more directness. International football is significantly different to club football, training period is short and it is difficult to establish an attacking system.

Sometimes you have to think about playing simple and direct. When your attackers are physical and dynamic enough to win duels and headers, that facilitates your game and making things easier. Football is all about options and Germany's problem is a lack of options.

Germany should consider giving up possession approach and forgetting about using possession to avoid duels and one-on-one situations. Youth players should be encouraged to take on defenders, to fight and take risks.

They need such difficult situations to temper their potential and will. Especially for young players from the age of 15 to 19, they shouldn't be restricted by tactics.

Fiete Arp

Strikers talents such as David Otto (Hoffenheim, 19), Fiete Arp (Hamburger SV, 18), Jesaja Herrmann (Vfl Wolfsburg, 18), Ware Pakia (Dortmund, 16), Nick Woltemade (Werder Bremen, 16) and Emrehan Gedikli (Bayer Leverkusen, 15) are widely considered as top striker prospects in Germany.

They are all trained to be technical, tactically aware and versatile.  But they should also focus on individual training rather than system training alone, certain qualities were completely neglected in German football in the last 8-10 years.

It takes time for our youth program to catch up or else we will fall further behind in the youth department. Meanwhile, we can see why French and English youngsters are preferred over young German in Bundesliga nowadays.

Fiete Arp and Emrehan Gedikli, both considered as the biggest striker prospects in Germany

Clubs want specialists at each position but Germany are not producing them: they focus too much on versatility and tactics. 

All these missing qualities and elements (physicality, aerial ability, strong will and combativeness) are why Germany have failed to produce a top class strikers in many years.

Germany do not lack strikers, they lack strikers with the required qualities. We can only hope Fullkrug and a transformed Havertz can be our short-term solutions.