EPL predictions: Brighton can end West Ham's UCL hope; wins for Man City

Jones Knows provides his Super 6 predictions and betting insights for all Premier League encounters and the FA Cup final. Find out what he's backing.

Newcastle vs Manchester City, Friday 8pm, live on Sky Sports

It seems strange to think there was a time this season where Manchester City - congratulations to them - weren't fancied to win the Premier League. After nine games - as all the talk surrounding Jose Mourinho masterclasses after Spurs' 2-0 win over City - Pep's boys were 10th in the table yet the bookmakers rarely took any chances with them - even at that stage they were only 11/4 with Sky Bet to win it. A fine price looking back if you were shrewd enough. There isn't much to get excited about in the outright match betting with City trading at 2/9 with Sky Bet - I don't need to tell you they will most likely win this match.

I'll go card hunting instead.

Fernandinho has been channelling his inner Scott McTominay in the past two games, making seven fouls - some of them very borderline - without picking up a yellow card. They don't come more wily than the Brazilian. However, faced with marking Allan Saint-Maximin in this encounter should bring the chances of him picking up a yellow card very much into play. The flying Frenchman has drawn yellow cards off Ozan Kabak, Fabinho and Granit Xhaka in his last three appearances. Fernandinho won't be able to resist a nibble. Back him at 100/30 with Sky Bet.

JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 0-1

BETTING ANGLE: Fernandinho to be carded (100/30 with Sky Bet)

Burnley vs Leeds, Saturday 12.30pm

Should be a fun watch, this game.

Burnley are pressing much higher lately in attack and it's reaping the rewards with Chris Wood and Matej Vydra seeing much more service. In their last seven games, only Leicester and Chelsea have created a higher expected goals figure per game than Burnley and their return of 13 actual goals from that run of fixtures is very healthy too. Burnley to score exactly two goals in this one makes appeal at 5/2 with Sky Bet.

Some punters/tipsters love tackling the tackles markets offered up by Sky Bet. I find it a bit too volatile for my liking but Leeds are pretty trustworthy in that department. Robin Koch has stepped in at the base of their midfield in the last two games, replacing Kalvin Phillips, and it's a position that always is rife for a high tackle count with the amount of work Marcelo Bielsa demands from players in that particular position.

Phillips for example averages 2.65 tackles per game. In the two games Koch has played, he racked up five vs Brighton and three vs Tottenham. I'm not sure the bookmakers have adjusted their lines accordingly so I'm happy to play him to make four or more tackles at 9/2 with Sky Bet as he goes into battle with the Burnley midfield.

JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 2-2

BETTING ANGLE: Robin Koch to make four or more tackles (9/2 with Sky Bet)

Southampton vs Fulham, Saturday 3.00pm, live on Sky Sports - Play Super 6 here!

Strap on those punting boots. Southampton are a fine bet here to take all three points.

The table officially has Saints 13 points better than Fulham but the gap between them is larger than that when you analyse the key metrics and reliability of players in key moments. Ralph Hasenhuttl, who should be the front-runner for the Spurs job, has a fine record at beating teams towards the bottom of the league with his up-tempo style. Eight of Southampton's 11 Premier League wins this season have come against teams in the bottom eight.

Fulham will be here for the taking.

Scott Parker, who has been linked with the Spurs job, has overseen six defeats in their last seven and their relegation was confirmed in another limp display against Burnley. Parker spoke of some "big decisions" being made over the next month or two and it has to be a worry that motivation within his squad will be low for the remaining games, especially with the amount of loan players in his team.

When Saints win, Danny Ings usually scores. No player to have scored more than 20 goals in the last two seasons - he has scored 34 - in the Premier League has a more deadly conversion rate than the Southampton striker - a whopping 32.08 per cent. To put that into context, Harry Kane is working at a 24 per cent rate. Ings has a point to prove ahead of Gareth Southgate's Euro 2020 squad announcement and must be backed this weekend to score in a home win.

SUPER 6 PREDICTION: 2-0

BETTING ANGLE: Danny Ings to score and Southampton to win (13/5 with Sky Bet)

FA Cup Final: Chelsea vs Leicester, Saturday 5.15pm - Play Super 6 here!

Those that like backing cards have endured a frustrating period behind closed doors as referees have become more lenient without the pressure of a crowd roaring them on to delve into their pockets. Michael Oliver has got the nod for this one and he will undertaking his duties with 20,000 fans inside Wembley. The added edge of an atmosphere in a one-off game environment where cynical fouls are more likely to be seen, should result in a card friendly game.

And I want to back Wilfred Ndidi to get one at 3/1 with Sky Bet. He's having another magnificent season in the engine room but he's being asked to play with more dynamism in a midfield two and the fouls have been racking up. Since the start of April, no player has made more fouls in the Premier League than Ndidi (19), picking up two bookings along the way.

Furthermore, in what I would define as "elite encounters", Chelsea's style of breaking through their midfield into their front three is causing opposition players to make fouls. In the two legs vs Real Madrid in the Champions League, the Spanish side picked up nine bookings in total whilst Manchester City were carded five times across their meetings recently and Porto seven times. Cards are on the menu in a Chelsea win.

SUPER 6 PREDICTION: 2-1

BETTING ANGLE: Wilfred Ndidi to be carded (3/1 with Sky Bet)

Brighton vs West Ham, Saturday 8.00pm, live on Sky Sports - Play Super 6 here!

The door has come ajar again for West Ham in their pursuit of a top-four finish but this isn't an ideal fixture.

Expectation will be on them here to leave with three points but in truth there really isn't much between the teams despite their league positions. Brighton are underrated, West Ham overrated. Plus, the Hammers looked quite clueless in the final third when tasked with breaking down a well organised back five against Everton. They will face a similar problem here.

I was keen on backing the hosts but yet again the markets have them firmly on side with only 15/8 with Sky Bet available. The price is tight enough,

With such little juice in the outright match prices, my eyes have wandered to the shots market where I'll be backing my old friend Yves Bissouma. Punts on him to score in recent weeks have gone astray but he's been peppering the opposition goal with efforts that have admittedly varied in quality. But that's the beauty with backing these type of shots bets, it doesn't matter if it's blocked, speculative or downright rubbish, a shot is a shot. The Evens for him to fire two shots at goal, something he's done in four of his last five matches, is appealing.

SUPER 6 PREDICTION: 1-0

BETTING ANGLE: Yves Bissouma to have two or more shots (Evens with Sky Bet)

Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa, Sunday 12pm, live on Sky Sports - Play Super 6 here!

Palace's season is predictably fizzling out under Roy Hodgson - as it did last season when the club assured their safety. Only two wins against relegated West Brom and Sheffield United are all they have to show from their last 10 matches. I'd be against them here with Villa a decent odds-against poke at 13/10 with Sky Bet especially with Jack Grealish back.

Meanwhile, you sense that Wilfried Zaha will be relishing a change of direction this summer - whether that would be at Crystal Palace under a new manager or moving onto pastures new.

His tendency to lash out with a flailing arm is going to get him into trouble with VAR sooner rather than later. He was booked in stoppage time for an altercation with Jack Stephens against Southampton for such an offence. Villa will be out to test his nerve. With that in mind, the 66/1 with Sky Bet for him to be red carded has a chance.

SUPER 6 PREDICTION: 1-2

BETTING ANGLE: Wilfried Zaha to be sent off (66/1 with Sky Bet)

Tottenham vs Wolves, Sunday 2.05pm, live on Sky Sports - Play Super 6 here!

I nearly spat my coffee out when seeing what price Tottenham were here. How anyone could seriously back them at 1/2 with Sky Bet - it has to be up there as one of the worst prices of the season against a team that have won on their last two visits to playing Spurs away from home.

I don't like trusting teams that rely on individuals. Cohesion, teamwork and spirit remains such an underrated aspect of trying to analyse the functionality of a team. And, as we've seen for months now, Tottenham's can be questioned even despite the removal of Jose Mourinho.

The brilliance of Harry Kane and Heung Min-Son continues to paper over the cracks at the club. Their deadly finishing means Spurs have the best shot conversion (15.3 per cent) in the Premier League despite averaging only 11.4 shots per game as a team - which is the lowest Tottenham have averaged in a Premier League season since Opta started keeping records in 2003/04.

This means there is value to be had getting Wolves very much on our side. The 6/4 for Wolves to win or draw is a solid price for those that like a short one but I'll be playing Nuno's boys to win the game by one goal at 7/1 with Sky Bet. A one-goal margin victory has copped in 10 of Wolves' 12 wins this season.

SUPER 6 PREDICTION: 0-1

BETTING ANGLE: Wolves to win by exactly one goal (7/1 with Sky Bet)

West Brom vs Liverpool, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports - Play Super 6 here!

One of the keys to making profitable betting decisions on player shots markets surrounds how confident said player is. If he's in-form, then he's more likely to feel comfortable in taking on the greedy shot option. The problem is, confidence can't be measured so it's a subjective area. However, it's a pretty safe suggestion to deem that Trent Alexander-Arnold is a confident boy at the moment.

He was the best player on the pitch in the win over Manchester United, grabbing an assist and registering four shots on goal. West Brom, with nothing to play for, should make this an open game of football which will be music to the ears of Jurgen Klopp. Shots should be on the menu and I like the Alexander-Arnold angle for him to have two or more on goal at 6/4 with Sky Bet in another high-scoring Liverpool away win.

SUPER 6 PREDICTION: 1-3

BETTING ANGLE: Trent Alexander-Arnold to have two or more shots (6/4 with Sky Bet)

Everton vs Sheffield United, Sunday 8.00pm

The way Sheffield United played in their 2-0 defeat to Crystal Palace, who have effectively put their cue on the rack for the season was an insult to what Chris Wilder had built at the club. It could be a long road back to the big time for the Blades.

Their toothless football shouldn't give an Everton defence that have shut out West Ham, Aston Villa and Arsenal in the past three weeks too much to sweat about. The 11/10 with Sky Bet for Everton to win to nil looks a solid play.

I'm also interested in the first goal method to be a header at 9/2. Here we'll have Dominic Calvert-Lewin on our side, who is only 21/10 to score a header outright, plus Everton's threat from set pieces with Michael Keane and Ben Godfrey.

JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 2-0

BETTING ANGLE: First goal method to be a header (9/2 with Sky Bet)