Towards the end of last season, as Manchester United's campaign crumbled from mediocrity to ignominy, Ralf Rangnick was asked whether the club could realistically hope to attract top-class players if they couldn't offer Champions League football in the season ahead.
"It would be better if we played Champions League next season, but (…) this is not a problem that only Manchester United has," the outgoing interim manager said. "This club is an attractive club and, with a new manager, a new approach and the way he wants to play, this is still a massively interesting club. The renewal of the contract of Bruno (Fernandes) showed that it's still possible."
It has been a difficult summer so far, dominated by the agitations of Cristiano Ronaldo and the troublesome pursuit of Frenkie de Jong. The only new signing to join Erik ten Hag's squad on the pre-season trip to Thailand and Australia is former Feyenoord full-back Tyrrell Malacia, but a deal to sign Christian Eriksen on a free transfer is well advanced and, finally, there were indications last night of a breakthrough in negotiations to sign Argentina defender Lisandro Martinez from Ajax.
Of course, it's still possible to sign top-class players. Yes, there are players who would be aghast at the thought of slumming it in the Europa League next season — and Cristiano Ronaldo, unsurprisingly, appears to be one of them. But it has long been a fallacy that the Champions League is the be-all and end-all when it comes to attracting talent.
United know this better than most. Ed Woodward, during his less than glorious period as executive vice-chairman, boasted that United "can do things in the transfer market that other clubs can only dream of".
That was in the summer of 2014 when, despite having no European football to offer in the coming campaign, United signed Angel Di Maria and Radamel Falcao, among others. Paul Pogba and Zlatan Ibrahimovic were lured to Old Trafford two years later to play in the Europa League.
It probably speaks volumes about life under the Glazer family's ownership in recent years that many of United's greatest shows of strength in the transfer market have been made from positions of weakness.
And maybe, looking back at those names and recalling the lack of impact those players made at Old Trafford (although Ibrahimovic, who at least lived up to expectations, still maintains he "conquered" the Premier League), it also serves as a warning.
Di Maria was a statement signing made with no clear idea how the newly-appointed Louis van Gaal was going to use him; Falcao was a deadline-day panic deal for a player coming off a serious ACL injury that was regretted within two months; Pogba's willingness to leave a dominant Juventus to rejoin a struggling United at the age of 23 only raised questions about his motivations and those of his management team.
But money has always been a persuasive factor — in football, as in life — and it always will be.
And there have been plenty of instances where talented players, having initially had their head turned by an enormous financial offer, have not just signed up for a financially aggressive "project" but have embraced and greatly enhanced it. Think of David Silva and Yaya Toure turning their back on Champions League football with Valencia and Barcelona respectively to join Manchester City in the summer of 2010. A decade later, City's "project" looked far more credible than Barcelona's does.
The word "project" is frequently derided when used in football circles, but City, leaving questions about their ownership model and their financial arrangements to one side, have demonstrated it can be more than a buzzword if there is a clear strategy and a coherent football culture behind it.
That is precisely what United have lacked in the nine years since Sir Alex Ferguson's retirement as manager left the club with such an enormous void in knowledge, authority and leadership. Since then, there has been the occasional fleeting glimpse of a plan under one manager or another at United, but there has been no semblance of a serious, enduring "project".
Incredibly, it took United until March last year, almost eight years into the post-Ferguson vacuum, to appoint a football director.
As for whether John Murtough is the transformative, visionary figure they needed, having been a constant presence behind the scenes since January 2014, there hasn't been too much so far — extending Ole Gunnar Solskjaer's contract last summer, trying to agree a new contract with a disengaged Pogba, signing Ronaldo, sacking Solskjaer last November with no succession plan, appointing Rangnick as an interim manager rather than as, well, a football director — to inspire the belief that much has changed.
This is what Rangnick was talking about once it became clear that there was no future for him in the kind of strategic consultant role the club had previously envisaged. Rangnick, now in charge of the Austria national team, spoke with ever-increasing candour about the need for United to focus not on A-list stars but on young, hungry players who would represent the fresher, more sustainable, more long-term approach the club badly needs.
"My opinion is the club should try to find future top players and try to develop them," Rangnick said in April. "We just need to look into the other top clubs in England and also in other countries in Europe — and what players did they sign in the past — and you get the answer."
But that tends to be a crowded market these days. "As soon as other clubs like Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester City are involved, you need some good reasons," Rangnick added. "Someone needs to explain to the players and that is why it is important what Erik (ten Hag) thinks. I know from Jurgen (Klopp) and Thomas (Tuchel), if they want players, they talk to them, and the same is probably true of Pep (Guardiola): Speak to (players) and find out about their mentality and character and if they are the right fit."
Precisely. This, again, is something United have lacked in recent times. "You need some good reasons".
An agent tells the story of discussing his client with several leading European clubs a few years ago.
He went from Germany to Spain to England, asking and fielding detailed questions from various clubs' sporting directors, general managers and head coaches. And then, when it came to Manchester United, he found himself in a room with a club executive who proceeded to talk at great length about what a move to Old Trafford would do for the player's commercial profile.
There are players — and agents — for whom these factors outweigh all others. Equally, there are players whose superstar profile has been as off-putting to some clubs as it has been alluring to United.
And the great contradiction here is that, when it comes to attracting A-list talent, superstars at the top of the game, no club in world football (with the possible exception of Paris Saint-Germain)has pulled off as many big-name deals as a dysfunctional United over the past eight years or so. You only needed to hear some of Woodward's proclamations on conference calls with shareholders to realise just how heavily this stuff weighed in the club's consideration.
But those, seemingly, aren't the deals United want right now.
Coming so soon after the marquee signings of Raphael Varane from Real Madrid and Ronaldo from Juventus, the appointment of Ten Hag seemed to herald a sudden but overdue change of direction.
Ten Hag is an ultra-serious coach whose football philosophy — fast, energetic, possession-based, intelligent — would appear, like Klopp's and Guardiola's, to require young, hungry players rather than grandees of the type United chased so often during the Woodward years. (This in turn invites questions about why on earth they would stand in Ronaldo's way if, at 37, he no longer wants to play for the club. But we digress.)
Yes, they have been trying to sign Frenkie de Jong from Barcelona, but that pursuit is based on Ten Hag's belief that the 25-year-old, who played under him at Ajax, is the perfect cornerstone for a desperately-needed rebuild in midfield. It looks like a move based on a football vision rather than a commercial vision or a reactive whim. For that small mercy, their supporters might be thankful.
But it is now mid-July and, while rival clubs are putting the finishing touches to their summer transfer business, United are encountering all-too-familiar frustrations. They have signed young left-back Tyrrell Malacia from Feyenoord and are increasingly hopeful of adding Ajax defender Lisandro Martinez, but this is a summer when their needs are pressing in several positions. They need more — and Ten Hag, it is abundantly clear, wants and expects more.
It was entirely foreseeable that the De Jong bid would be complicated. It was never going to be a straightforward deal.
For one thing, the player's preference has been to stay at Barcelona (and it is understood this would be the case even if we were talking about a club offering him Champions League football next season, rather than Europa League). For another, there is the wage issue that complicates both his continued presence at Camp Nou and his potential departure.
No doubt there will be uproar if, having pursued him for so long, United miss out on De Jong. If they are left scrambling around in search of an alternative before the deadline on September 1, that would not be a good look.
The reality is that United went into this extremely important transfer window with some notable gaps in their executive team as well as their squad. No United fan will mourn Woodward's departure, but by the time he left his role earlier this year he had far more experience in these areas than new chief executive Richard Arnold, whose longstanding preference has been to leave this side of the job to the experts.
This would be entirely sensible if Arnold could be certain that such expertise exists within Old Trafford these days. Photographs of him in Barcelona this week with Murtough only reinforced the suspicion that United have lacked a certain clout in their negotiations so far this summer.
The closest thing they have to an accomplished transfer negotiator is Matt Judge, another investment banker and, like Woodward and Arnold, Bristol University alumnus. But he is now in his final weeks at United, having resigned in April. He has been trying to negotiate transfers while working his notice period, assisted by solicitor Tom Keane, who has been working for the club in a consultancy role.
Questioning United's pulling power in the transfer market boils down to two separate issues.
One is about whether, after nine years of largely miserable existence post-Ferguson, the club are as attractive to potential signings as they undoubtedly should be. The other is whether, internally, they rival other clubs when it comes to working the market and completing transfers.
The De Jong deal — whether they complete it or not — should not be seen as the litmus test of that. It's complicated. There are external factors that will either facilitate or scupper United's bid. If it fails, the big question will be whether, given the obstacles that have been clear for some time, they have a suitable, achievable contingency plan.
Whether or not they succeed in signing De Jong, United have pulled off many dramatic transfer coups and big-name signings over the past decade. And rather than an endorsement, that catalogue of expensive A-list failures has ended up as an indictment of the club's lack of vision under the Glazers' ownership and Woodward's leadership.
For now, United appear to be operating in different territory with a different outlook. And rather than coming down to whether United can attract A-list talent — or fans "anticipating big names coming in the door", as former United defender Rio Ferdinand put it — it becomes a question of whether the club can persuade potential targets that their talent will flourish at Old Trafford, rather than wither.
The past decade has not exactly brought much encouragement in that regard.
United have not invested in up-and-coming talent often enough, and when they have — Memphis Depay and Anthony Martial under Van Gaal, Aaron Wan-Bissaka, Dan James and Donny van de Beek under Solskjaer — it has rarely gone well.
It is too early to judge Jadon Sancho (likewise Facundo Pellistri and Amad, the duo they rushed to sign upon missing out on Sancho in the summer of 2020) but the environment the England winger walked into last season after his move from Borussia Dortmund seemed far from ideal for any young player looking to fulfil his potential.
That has to change under Ten Hag.
The acquisition of Malacia seems to be a step in the right direction, as does the apparent enthusiasm of Martinez, but the bigger test of United's pulling power will come when they find themselves competing with clubs such as Liverpool, Manchester City, Bayern Munich and Real Madrid to sign players.
As a hypothetical example, let's take England midfielder Jude Bellingham, for whom Dortmund are expected to listen to offers next summer. Liverpool and Real will be jostling for position at the front of the queue and it would not be a great surprise if United fancied him too, given that Bellingham's range of technical and physical qualities would make him an attractive candidate for their midfield rebuild.
United made serious plays for both Bellingham and Erling Haaland in late 2019, only for the players, then at Birmingham City and Red Bull Salzburg respectively, to join Dortmund. There were many different factors at play with Haaland in particular — and United could be forgiven for feeling exasperated by the demands of his agent, the late Mino Raiola — but if the Norway striker felt his career would be better served by moving to Dortmund, it seems pretty clear he made the right decision.
This summer Haaland was on the move again and United were never in contention, having re-signed Ronaldo after 12 years in Madrid and Turin last summer. But even if United had been in the market for a top-class centre-forward — which they might have been had Ronaldo's intentions became clearer earlier in this window — could they have persuaded Haaland he should join them rather than neighbours City? Or convinced Darwin Nunez of Benfica that he would have better off at Old Trafford than Anfield?
When Bellingham leaves Dortmund, he will not be short of offers. So how do United put themselves into a position where they are in a position to make themselves more attractive to him than Liverpool or, say, City? The size of the club is one thing, the financial and commercial possibilities another, but if a player wants indications that he can fulfil his potential at United, while competing for the biggest prizes, something is going to have to change.
Ten Hag offers a way forward in a way that Solskjaer did not. He will expect to get far more out of Sancho, while integrating players such as Malacia and — he hopes — De Jong into a progressive team with a clear tactical identity.
That is an important step. Players need to be able to see something positive happening under Ten Hag, the way the likes of Sadio Mane, Mohamed Salah and Virgil van Dijk could see something positive happening under Klopp at Liverpool long before that team started winning trophies.
This is the approach United need to follow. It isn't about superstars or getting "big names through the door". It's about building an environment and a team framework in which talented players can consistently thrive and, in time, getting back into the Champions League and competing for and winning the biggest prizes. Or even the smaller prizes, given that five years have now passed since the club's last trophy.
Ten Hag brings the promise of a vision, new energy, hope and optimism, which was evident as they began their pre-season preparations by thrashing Liverpool 4-0 in Bangkok on Wednesday. But the job is a huge one and doubts persist about the quality and the strength of the structure around the new manager.
Is this regime capable of identifying and implementing the changes that are needed? For all the varied shortcomings of every United manager since Ferguson, all of them could justifiably point to failings behind the scenes. Can we really be sure that anything has changed?
The test for United in the transfer market is less about whether they can attract A-list talent — less than a year on from the re-signing of Ronaldo, which has brought goals but precious little gratification for player or club — and more about whether the Old Trafford hierarchy are capable of formulating a vision and following it through.
It isn't about one headline-grabbing deal that delights their commercial partners and investors by sending social media interactions throughout the roof. It's about, yes, a project.
That's what United need: a project. A project that can be as appealing and ultimately as successful as those that Klopp and Guardiola have built elsewhere in the north west over recent years. That requires vision, but it also requires knowledge of the market and the industry and, as Rangnick said, the ability to give players compelling reasons to choose United over their rivals.
There will always be players for whom the size of the club, the commercial profile and the contract will override all other concerns. But United have had enough of those in recent years and it seems they are going in a different direction under Ten Hag.
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