Manchester United vs Newcastle best bet: Back penalties in Carabao Cup final

The stakes are so high in the Carabao Cup final that the game may slip into "must not lose" territory and Jones Knows is backing penalties at 5/1.

How did we get on last weekend?

Profits made over the Christmas period are being frittered away as chasing some longer prices last weekend was always going to be tough to generate a return. The Kai Havertz to assist a Joao Felix goal vs Southampton at 12/1 only got a 45 minute run for its money after Graham Potter decides to shuffle his pack. This bet will land when Chelsea start to turn performances into wins - even potentially this weekend at Tottenham where you can get 18/1 for your money.

We were not far away in tipping up Willian to score in a Fulham win at Brighton at 14/1. Half of that job was done, Fulham were 4/1 for the win, but it was Manor Solomon that scored from the left-wing position.

Not much jumped off the page in terms of value this weekend. So, it's all eggs in the Carabao Cup final basket.

P+L = +8

1pt on Manchester United vs Newcastle to go all the way to penalties (5/1 with Sky Bet - Bet Here!)

This Carabao Cup final feels more important than most years.

It's been exactly six years since Manchester United last landed a major trophy whilst Newcastle have not won a major domestic trophy in nearly 68 years. Winning this game could just trigger the start of something very special for both clubs, who have performed above expectations this season.

What has provided the backbone for the two teams this season is their ability to stave off defeats even when performance levels have dropped. In their last 54 games combined both have lost just two games each, including in that run the 0-0 Premier League draw between the teams at Old Trafford.

You get the impression the stakes are so high and occasion so big that this may turn into a "must not lose" type of football match rather than a risk-taking, free-flowing one. I've sat through enough Championship final play-off matches at Wembley to know how such an atmosphere can hinder a game exploding into life.

Six of the last 15 League Cup finals have gone to extra-time - with the last five finals that have gone to extra-time also gone to penalties. This one stands a fantastic chance of going the same way. Take the 5/1 with Sky Bet on either team winning on penalties.