Worrying Roberto Firmino pattern that spells danger for Liverpool

Liverpool slumped to a defeat which was both stunning and unexpected on Saturday evening, when they lost 3-0 at Watford .

While the rarity of unbeaten seasons always suggested the Reds might lose a match at some point in their final 11 league games of 2019/20, few would've predicted it would occur in either this fixture or by such a wide margin.

This was only the seventh Premier League game in which Liverpool have conceded three second half goals without reply, and only the fourth of those where they didn't also go down to 10 or nine men.

Roy Evans' Reds lost 4-1 at Stamford Bridge in 1998 having been level at the break, Arsenal turned round one of the final matches of Gerard Houllier's reign to win 4-2 in 2004, and Jürgen Klopp's Liverpool lost 3-2 at Southampton in 2016 having been two up at half time.

Two of the Saints' goals that day were scored by a certain Sadio Mané, but there was little chance of him getting on the score sheet at Vicarage Road on Saturday. The Senegalese international didn't have a single attempt a goal.

It's not the first time it's happened, but it's only the seventh league game for Liverpool in which Mané played 90 minutes and didn't have a shot. To make matters worse, he didn't create any chances either. Of the five league games where he played the full match but did not set up or take a shot, this was the first which wasn't against one of the Manchester clubs.

He wasn't alone. Roberto Firmino didn't directly contribute to a goal attempt either. When looking through Bobby's previous attack-free matches, an interesting pattern comes to light.

There have been three Liverpool league matches where Firmino played at least 77 minutes and didn't create a chance or take a shot. This was one example, as was the Reds' previous 3-0 defeat at Watford in 2015. The other instance was an infamous 4-1 loss against Tottenham at Wembley in 2017.

What do you notice? The three matches in question are three of the four in the league where Klopp's Liverpool have lost by at least three goals. The only other instance, at Manchester City, occurred when Mané was sent off in the first half.

It has been clear for many years how important Firmino is to Liverpool. While correlation is not causation, history suggests that if he plays the majority of the match and doesn't contribute to a goal attempt, the Reds really struggle.

Liverpool did at least manage to get two shots out of Mohamed Salah in this match, but they were low quality opportunities. Factor in expected goals to quantify the quality of attack, and the Reds' number 11 has only had one worse league game: the 1-0 loss at Stamford Bridge in 2018, which followed four days after a Champions League final. We can forgive a poor performance there, even if Salah was booked for diving that day.

Watford defended superbly, massively limiting the impact of the front three. Any touches they had in the centre of the box – within the width of the six yard box – were mostly limited to the edge of the penalty area, with the only instance further forward being when Salah was caught offside in the 52nd minute.

With the front three so impotent in attack, Liverpool were going to struggle to create any chances of note. Their seven shots in total were collectively worth just 0.2 expected goals, which makes it their worst attacking performance in a league game under Klopp, at least in the opinion of the Understat website.

It's not like they didn't have enough of the ball in attacking areas. Liverpool had completed an average of 121 final third passes per league match prior to this game, and were successful with 153 here. Similarly, the Reds' 18 passes in the Watford box bettered their season average of 14.

Perhaps more tellingly, as it's normally such a strong part of their arsenal, Liverpool wasted 25 of the 26 crosses they attempted. Trent Alexander-Arnold – the player who has completed the most crosses in the Premier League this season – didn't succeed with any of his 10 attempts, while Andy Robertson drew a blank from his eight.

Being bad in attack is one thing, but it's still possible to hold firm at the back and take a point. Sadly for the Reds, their defence performed worse than their front line.

For the first time this season, Liverpool made three Opta-defined defensive errors which led to shots, with Salah, Alisson Becker and Alexander-Arnold the guilty parties. Dejan Lovren may have escaped censure from the stat collectors, but he had a poor game too. The Croatian only won six of his 12 aerial duels with Troy Deeney, and was repeatedly dragged out of position in his personal battle with Watford's frontman .

With none of Liverpool's midfielders making more than a single tackle throughout the match, the below par performances all round coalesced into an abysmal outing. Watford became the first team since Manchester City in the ill-fated and aforementioned 5-0 to have six clear-cut chances against Liverpool in the league. Had they not missed three of them, the damage would have been even worse.

In a season where ever more impressive records have been set on an almost weekly basis, Liverpool plumbed the depths to set some new negative ones on Saturday evening. The only good news is the Reds have never lost two successive league games during Klopp's time in charge. They will need to bounce back well from this unlikely but thoroughly merited heavy beating.