Amorim's tactics: Will 3-4-3 formation ever work for head coach at Old Trafford

🔴 Why Amorim's 3-4-3 system can bring results
🔴 But analysts say system LEAST suited to squad
🔴 Coaching opposites: Transition underestimated
🔴 Is there the time and patience for it to succeed?

When Arsenal visit Manchester United on Sunday, it will mark two years to the day since Mikel Arteta last faced a Ruben Amorim side away from home. Amorim's Sporting would go on to dump Arsenal out of the Champions League over two legs.

It was an impressive accomplishment, achieved against the odds given that Sporting's turnover at the time was less than a third of Arsenal's. It was deserved too, a savvy performance over three-and-a-half hours of football, winning the tie on penalties.

"Our players were very smart," said Amorim of the 2-2 draw in Lisbon. Arteta lamented the performance, determined to learn lessons. "It is not worth playing the balls that we played especially against a team that wants to press the way they did," he said.

But Sporting, playing Amorim's trademark 3-4-3, won out at the Emirates Stadium, creating more chances despite finishing the game with 10 players after Manuel Ugarte was sent off in extra-time. Tactically, Amorim's system had confounded the Gunners.

Arsenal's full-backs were lured into places they did not want to go, Francisco Trincao and Marcus Edwards, now of Burnley, outfoxing Ben White and Oleksandr Zinchenko. Ricardo Esgaio, now 31 and still uncapped, wreaked havoc raiding from right wing-back.

It turned into an "open transition game that we did not want to play" complained Arteta afterwards. "We did not have the capacity to dominate the game and take the game where we want it." Jose Mourinho sent a congratulatory text to Amorim in the aftermath.

Can the system ever work in England?

All of which feels worth mentioning given that two years on, as Amorim struggles to imprint his ideas at Old Trafford, it is not just the Portuguese coach being criticised but the formation itself. Some pundits have expressed reservations, others sheer horror.

"It is a peculiar system," said Gary Neville. On Sky Sports News, Stephen Warnock is more emphatic. "I don't like the system. I don't think it works." Jamie O'Hara? "I don't think it will ever work. I just don't think that formation works in the Premier League."

It is true that Antonio Conte's Chelsea are the only team to win the Premier League title playing this way. It is also true that no Premier League title favourites have ever played this way - so the system could be said to have delivered one more title than expected.

There is an argument, perhaps, that the increased physicality of the Premier League makes it more challenging for wing-backs to patrol an entire flank. The reputation of 3-4-3 in English football is primarily that of a system to stifle, to contain and to counter.

That view is even supported by the evidence of Amorim's few successes since taking over at United. The better efforts have come in those games where the onus was not on them to 'make the game' - away against Manchester City, Arsenal and Liverpool.

Beyond these shores, it is not seen quite the same way. Reigning Bundesliga champions Bayer Leverkusen have adopted a back three this season. The only team to beat them last season, Atalanta, are chasing a historic title using a variation of a 3-4-3 formation.

Amorim's own Sporting had no problem dominating games playing this way. In fact, they boasted the only 100 per cent home record in Europe's six strongest leagues last season. Turning United into an ersatz Sporting is proving far harder than some thought.

But maybe not with these players…

When Manchester United were beaten on Boxing Day by a Wolves side rooted in the relegation zone, both teams were playing the exact same formation. Amorim noted the key difference. "Their squad was built for this system," he pointed out afterwards.

The same could be said of Crystal Palace when they came to Old Trafford and left with the three points. Tyrick Mitchell and Daniel Munoz showed how to play the wing-back role. Jean-Philippe Mateta starred up front. It was Kobbie Mainoo who started there for United.

Both Wolves and Palace had natural wing-backs and wide forwards comfortable when moving inside. United did not. "You are asking for specialists throughout the team," said Neville of the 3-4-3. "It is not like other systems which are a bit more forgiving."

Amorim has persisted, not deviating from his plan once. At home to Brighton in January, 3-1 down and chasing the game, he still did not throw on a forward. "If I do that it is going to be more difficult for them to understand the way we play," he reasoned afterwards.

There were those at Old Trafford who did anticipate the scale of this problem. Maybe even Amorim himself, who would surely have preferred the job last summer or next. Some recognised it would be more complicated than simply hiring the best coach available.

There are data analysis companies that flagged these issues at the time - and since. The company PLAIER, powered by artificial intelligence, is used by multiple Premier League clubs to assess the balance of their squads and the required improvements.

They identified 3-4-3 as one of the formations least suited to the make-up of the United squad, predicting the challenges ahead. As recently as the game against Everton, their simulations ranked 3-4-3 as only the eighth most effective formation to get a result.

That is just one company. How about the analysts at Coach Inside, used by clubs to specifically assess prospective coaches and their ability to fit within their organisation. They predicted Liverpool's relatively seamless transition from Jurgen Klopp to Arne Slot.

This season there is an 85 per cent compatibility between the style of football being adopted by Slot and that of Klopp last season. In contrast, the compatibility rating between Amorim and predecessor Erik ten Hag is way down at a measly 30 per cent.

"The thing is with the managers and the styles, it is not like they have come in and they have similar styles," Harry Maguire told Sky Sports. "They are the total opposite in terms of what they want and what they demand. So the transition period is going to be tough."

Of course, the circumstances at the two clubs were rather different. At United, Ten Hag, unlike Klopp, had been sacked. Continuity was not desirable. The aim of United's new leadership team was to disrupt, to begin to alter the trajectory of the entire football club.

A new formation unsuited to players acquired at great expense? All part of the cost of hiring Europe's next big thing. But even the more cautious - the now departed Dan Ashworth reportedly among them - may not have expected it to be this tricky.

In Amorim's native Portugal, speaking to an assortment of his fellow coaches there, sympathy is the overwhelming sentiment. But there is frustration too. A feeling that management is not just about imprinting ideas but making the most of what is available.

As one experienced Portuguese coach, who has faced Amorim many times, puts it, anyone can go to the fridge thinking they would like to eat an omelette, but if you look inside that fridge and find there are no eggs then do you really proceed with your plans?

Another points out that while the profile of United is higher than other clubs, this situation is not so rare. Porto have just hired Martin Anselmi, switching to 3-4-3, and are struggling. Sporting abandoned Amorim's 3-4-3 for 4-4-2 and results dipped alarmingly.

Will Amorim be given time to fix it?

It will take time and transfers to adjust. They still have players foisted into those specialist wing-back roles. They have Matthijs de Ligt - a summer signing, remember - coping admirably in a wider role. Bruno Fernandes finds himself being shifted around.

Already United supporters will wonder whether there is the will or the means to commit to the changes required to reconstruct this squad in Amorim's image. Can a club this size really bet it all on this 40-year-old coach from Portugal, however well regarded?

Sir Alex Ferguson needed years to get it right, that is true. But that was two generations ago. As recently as 2012, the shelf life of a Premier League manager was four years. The has now dipped below two. Amorim has had one window but he may need many more.

Ralf Rangnick called for open-heart surgery and that has never been more obvious - but United will be wary of killing the patient in the process. What is clear is that Amorim's comments about Arteta when they first met in 2023 now feel more relevant than ever.

"Arteta is an example because he was able to withstand the pressure, which is unbearable for a team in the Premier League. Now he is bearing the fruits. It is important for fans to understand that to pick up the fruits from your work, you have to wait."

The question is whether all this will be worth the wait for United.