Arsenal have reasons for hope in attacking shoot-out with City for PL title

Welcome to The Radar, a Sky Sports column in which Nick Wright uses a blend of data and opinion to shed light on need-to-know stories from up and down the Premier League. This week:

🔴 Can Arsenal outgun Man City?
◼️ Newcastle's blunt attack post-Isak
🔍 A player to watch this weekend

Attacking encouragement for Arsenal?

Pep Guardiola insists Manchester City are prioritising points over goal difference in their title fight with Arsenal. "It's just a question of winning games," he said. But with the two sides only separated by goals scored, there is no doubting it's potential significance.

For that reason, the 1-0 win over Burnley that sent Manchester City top actually offered Arsenal some encouragement. Mikel Arteta's side also need to win, above all. But that alone might not be enough. Tuesday's result could have been much worse for them.

Guardiola pointed out that improving goal difference is not solely an attacking endeavour. "It is to score and not concede, not just one side," he said to Sky Sports. For Arsenal, though, there is no doubt where the bigger question marks lie.

Can they raise their game in attack?

Arteta might point out they have only scored three goals fewer than Manchester City. It is hardly a yawning gap, thanks in part to their far superior return from set-pieces. Arsenal have scored a Premier League-high 21 non-penalty set-piece goals to City's eight.

Arteta will hope that set-piece supply line reopens in the weeks ahead following a run of only one set-piece goal in four Premier League games since they scored twice from corners in their win over Chelsea at the Emirates Stadium at the start of March.

But the bigger margin for improvement lies in open-play and, on that front, he can feel encouraged by his side's efforts at the Etihad Stadium, despite the result. Arsenal generated a higher total of open-play expected goals than City at 1.32 to 0.98.

Kai Havertz spurned their best chances to make it count, seeing a one-on-one chance saved by Gianluigi Donnarumma then heading agonisingly over the bar from Leandro Trossard's cross in stoppage time having earlier scored his side's equaliser.

But his return as Arsenal's No 9 was a major factor in their improvement. Havertz excelled as a focal point, holding the ball up, helping to bring Arsenal up the pitch and linking the play, all while providing a considerable threat in the Manchester City box, even if, by the end, he should have scored more than once.

His total of five shots in the game was the highest by an opposition striker at the Etihad Stadium all season.

It was only Havertz's second Premier League start up front this term and it coincided with the return of another player who has experienced an injury-hit campaign for Arsenal.

Martin Odegaard created more chances than anyone else in the game. His inclusion alongside, rather than instead of, Eberechi Eze helped transform Arsenal's technical level in attack.

The club must do all they can to keep those players fit for their final five Premier League fixtures, along with Bukayo Saka, who, according to Arteta, is ready to follow Havertz and Odegaard in returning from injury in Saturday's game against Newcastle, live on Sky Sports.

Remarkably, Havertz, Odegaard and Saka have not started a Premier League game together since the 5-1 win over Crystal Palace in December 2024, nearly a year and a half ago.

But since Havertz's arrival at the start of the season before that, the side's record with and without all three of them highlights their collective importance, particularly in open play.

Arsenal's set-piece threat is consistent whether they start or not, according to the underlying numbers, with the Gunners averaging exactly 0.45 expected goals from set-pieces per game both with and without them. But there is a gap in open-play creativity.

Arsenal average 1.47 open-play expected goals with all three Havertz, Odegaard and Saka starting compared to only 1.11 when one or more of the trio is absent from the team.

Getting them on the pitch together is the biggest challenge for Arsenal but it is not a guaranteed fix. Saka, seemingly impacted by injuries, has only scored two goals in his last 14 Premier League appearances. Odegaard has only scored one in his last 21.

Those players need to rediscover their cutting edge and the supporting cast need to step up too. Noni Madueke and Gabriel Martinelli only have three Premier League goals between them this season. Leandro Trossard is without one in his last 13 games.

Viktor Gyokeres has his limitations but ranks as Arsenal's top scorer, with 12 Premier League goals, and may yet be useful in upcoming games against lower-ranking opponents, with nine of his goals having come against teams in the bottom half.

Boosting their goal difference certainly seems to be in the minds of the Arsenal players, judging by comments from Martinelli to Sky Sports this week. "I would say yes," he said.

"When you go to the game, you just want to win it, but when the game is going on and you're winning, you think, 'let's go out and score more goals', because we know it's going to be tight."

Arsenal may yet have the tools come out on top.

Newcastle's bluntness

While Arsenal's attack might quietly be giving them cause for optimism, Newcastle's remains a headache for Eddie Howe.

The Magpies are averaging their fewest goals per game, at 1.41, since the 2021/22 campaign, when they finished 11th.

They head to the Emirates Stadium even worse off in the Premier League table, in 14th, following a third straight loss last weekend against Bournemouth. Their problems are not limited to the top-end of the pitch but last summer's attacking rebuild keeps looking worse.

Nick Woltemade and Yoane Wissa, signed for a combined £124m, have not scored in 24 Premier League games between them, with Howe now minded to use Denmark U21 international William Osula ahead of them as his first-choice No 9.

Osula is showing potential having scored in consecutive games. But Alexander Isak passed the 20-mark in each of his last two seasons at Newcastle. This time around, despite the huge investment in their attack, their top scorer is Bruno Guimaraes on nine.

Player Radar: Who else to keep an eye on

Brentford's goalless draw with Fulham last weekend was far from a classic but Mikkel Damsgaard produced some eye-catching moments for the hosts and could cause problems for Manchester United on Monday Night Football.

Live Radar: What's on Sky this weekend?

Sunderland face Nottingham Forest on Friday Night Football, live on Sky Sports Premier League and Sky Sports Main Event from 7pm ahead of the 8pm kick-off.

Arsenal and Newcastle go head to head in the Saturday Night Football game, with coverage starting on Sky Sports Premier League and Sky Sports Main Event from 5pm ahead of the 5.30pm kick-off.

On Monday Night Football, Man Utd take on Brentford. Coverage begins at 6.30pm on Sky Sports Premier League and Sky Sports Main Event ahead of the 8pm kick-off time.

Read last week's Radar column

Last week's column was a prescient one as it dissected Arsenal's technical issue and argued that Kai Havertz had to start against Manchester City at the Etihad Stadium.