Arsenal to pip Man City to Premier League title, say FiveThirtyEight

Arsenal will pip Manchester City to the Premier League title, Manchester United will finish third and Liverpool will squeeze out Newcastle to make the Champions League.

Those are the latest predictions by American pollsters FiveThirtyEight as the English season approaches its mid-way point.

With the Gunners establishing a seven-point lead over City ahead of the midweek action, Gunners fans are starting to dream of a first title since 2004.

And this particular prediction table backs them to do it, saying Arsenal have a 50 per cent probability of lifting the trophy as opposed to City's 41 per cent.

Their estimated points tally come May puts Mikel Arteta's side on 85 and City on 83, suggesting a thrilling finale lies in store.

Arsenal stole a march over the New Year when they won 4-2 at Brighton hours after City were surprisingly held to a 1-1 draw at home by Everton.

The Gunners host third-placed Newcastle on Tuesday night in another stern test of their title ambitions, while City travel to Chelsea on Thursday.

The predictions make grim reading for Newcastle fans, however, who are tipped to drop out of the Champions League places with Man United and Liverpool snatching third and fourth respectively.

Erik ten Hag's improving side, who can strengthen their grip on a top four place if they beat Bournemouth at Old Trafford on Tuesday, are assigned a 58 per cent probability of qualifying for the Champions League.

FiveThirtyEight believe the race for fourth between Liverpool and Newcastle is marginal to say the least. In fact, they predict they'll both end up on 68 points with Liverpool's goal difference slightly better.

That outcome may be a little difficult to believe after Jurgen Klopp's side lost 3-1 at Brentford on Monday, a performance which exposed many weaknesses.

More understandable is their prediction that both Tottenham and Chelsea will miss out on Champions League football, ending up in sixth and seventh respectively.

The predictor places Spurs' chances of a Champions League spot at a meagre 20 per cent and Chelsea's at 14 per cent.

Both sides dropped points in their last games with Antonio Conte's future as Spurs manager looking more and more uncertain, while Graham Potter's honeymoon period at Stamford Bridge is well and truly over.

Brighton and Brentford are tipped for impressive top-half finishes, while the relegated trio will apparently be Nottingham Forest, Bournemouth and Wolves.

Forest have a 61 per cent chance of relegation, according to FiveThirtyEight, as their return to the Premier League proves to be short-lived.

Bournemouth, who are currently 15th, are given a 56 per cent chance of going down, while Wolves, second-bottom at the moment, are backed to go down by a single point in 18th.

That means a great escape for Southampton, who are currently popping up the division, while Everton, Leeds and West Ham are all left high and dry.

FiveThirtyEight, which takes its name from the number of electors in the United States electoral college, was created by analyst Nate Silver as a polling aggregation website.

They have been predicting the outcomes of major football leagues since 2017 using their specialist methodology.