Arsenal vs Man City: Why this year's Carabao Cup matters like never before

This Sunday sees a Carabao Cup final like never before. This is the first time the two best teams in the country in terms of the league table have competed in this final. Never before has the first silverware of the season had so much riding on it.

It is often said the real season run-in begins after the March international break ends. Sunday's final, live on Sky Sports, is the last game before that break.

This will be the cliffhanger before the final act of Arsenal vs Man City starts. It will act as the precursor for the crucial Premier League game between the two on April 19. But in the wider context of these two teams' seasons, it will answer many remaining questions about the sides.

Arsenal come into the final on the brink of a defining period in their modern history. A first Premier League title beckons in 22 years thanks to a significant lead at the top of the table, and this final is one of four trophy avenues for the Gunners over the next eight weeks.

With the Gunners five wins away from the title and in the latter stages of the other three competitions, Arsenal are 14 victories from claiming a historic quadruple. But getting over the line has been the main sticking point of the last few seasons.

While Arsenal sit above City in the Premier League table, it is worth remembering that Mikel Arteta's side are the trophy searchers, with Pep Guardiola holding the experience of silverware, as they themselves chase a domestic treble.

"When you have been in this position and years without a trophy, it adds more necessity but also more drive," said Arteta in his press conference on Friday.

"That's something that we have, it's important for us and something we've been looking to achieve for a while."

Arsenal also head to Wembley for the first time in six years. City have been there 22 times since Guardiola took over. "Being there is an honour, and a big challenge," said Guardiola about that record this week, almost bragging about their record of reaching this stage.

Ultimately, this final also sits as an opportunity for Arsenal to claim a big win over City in the defining part of the season - something that has eluded them.

Arteta's Arsenal have a pretty good record over Guardiola's City, the Gunners unbeaten in the last six meetings. But Arsenal's wins over City in that period came in the autumn or winter; they are yet to claim a win over Guardiola in the spring since they emerged as title contenders three seasons ago.

In 2023, Arsenal lost 4-1 to City in the Premier League which effectively saw Arteta concede the title to Guardiola. In 2024, the Gunners went to the Etihad Stadium again and drew 0-0, which led to Rodri criticising their lack of winning mentality.

They did not play in this part of the season last year, so what will 2026 bring? This is normally the period where Arsenal 'bottle' it, according to their critics. This is the chance to shed those accusations.

"Trust me, we have that memory," says Bukayo Saka to Sky Sports. "We finished second three times in a row, everyone knows that.

"This year we have such a strong belief that we can do it. We have the quality. We have a great squad. That mix is what's making me believe.

"We have become good at blocking out outside noise. In the last few years people have had a lot to say about us and how we have played, set pieces, et cetera, so it has become numb to us now.

"It's the most important part of the season where trophies are won, and it's big games, and there's more on the line. But I feel like everyone's dealing with it well.

"We're just staying humble, staying grounded. We're letting people speak, and are taking it game by game, starting Sunday."

For City, this final sits as a chance to not only peg Arsenal down a notch in the crucial part of the season, but instil new energy into their own run-in.

The Champions League exit to Real Madrid has ruined their own quadruple hopes, with a run of one win in five matches across all competitions creating the narrative that this is not the City we're used to: one that is capable of a perfect, faultless run-in.

It may be too early to call this City's 'last chance' to gain momentum in their season, but defeat would surely rubber-stamp their status as the second-best team in the land behind Arsenal.

With rumours over Guardiola potentially leaving City this season refusing to go away, it could also present a 'full circle' moment for City's coach.

When Arsenal were last in the League Cup final in 2018, Guardiola marked victory over Arsene Wenger's Gunners in a poignant moment.

It was the City boss' first trophy in England - the first of 15 that have followed since - but was also a reminder to Wenger that the football he helped shape was moving in another direction. With Pep's football revolution in full swing, Arsenal's legendary manager departed football management a few months later.

For Guardiola, this final could represent a similar feeling that Wenger felt. With set pieces, direct football and transitions taking over, this is no longer Guardiola's game. He himself has admitted that over the last year or so. Defeat at Wembley and it could mark a new Arteta-defined era of Premier League football.

Victory for City, however, would show that Guardiola is still top dog. That this new City team, that has seen so much personnel change in the last 15 months, is capable of continuing his successful era. It could even convince Guardiola to see out the last year of his contract at the club.

"In many things, we are just underneath [the level required] and it will flourish," said Guardiola this week.

"I have the feeling we are close, but in other things we need a bit more time until people realise and the player realise that we're a strong team in many departments. In many things, we are close. In some areas the gap is not close, but in many aspects we are an extraordinary team."

This fixture was once presented as master vs apprentice between Arteta and Guardiola. That narrative has long gone. Now it takes the form of Guardiola the old dog, and Arteta's new tricks.