City and Real Madrid set to lock horns once again in the Champions League

Death, taxes, and Real Madrid going up against Manchester City in the Champions League. Some things are just inevitable.

Once again, these two heavyweights will do battle in the knockout stages.

These two teams have gone up against each other in knockout ties in the past four campaigns.

This will, however, be the first time that any two sides have met in the knockout phase of the Champions League in five consecutive seasons.

So, there isn't really much new for the Citizens to learn about Los Blancos, or vice versa. It is second in LaLiga versus second in the Premier League, too.

Pep Guardiola's team were knocked out by Madrid in the play-off round last season, and they have already faced off this term.

City emerged 2-1 victors at the Santiago Bernabeu in the league phase. Rodrygo scored Madrid's goal in that game, but he will be absent for this tie, given that he is now out for the season due to an anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury. 

But which way will this battle between two European heavyweights go? Here, we preview the match by delving into the Opta insights surrounding the key players and storylines. 

What's expected?

Man City are made the favourites to win this match, with a 45.9% win probability.

Madrid's chances come in at 29.5%, while there is a 24.6% likelihood of a draw.

Overall, City are also the favourites to progress from the tie, with our model handing them a 69.0% chance of making the last eight.

And that could be down to the fact that only Bayern Munich (eight) and Juventus (seven) have won more Champions League games against Madrid than City (five). 

But of the last six meetings between these teams, it is an even split of two City wins, two Madrid victories and two draws.

The Citizens have, however, been eliminated from the Champions League by Madrid on four occasions, the only side to knock them out more than twice.

That includes in each of the last two seasons, in the 2023-24 quarter-finals and the 2024-25 knockout phase play-offs.

Vinicius to star for injury-hit Madrid?

Kylian Mbappe, who netted four times in last season's play-off tie, is a doubt to face City, though he was involved in Madrid training on Monday. 

Mbappe has missed Madrid's last three games due to a knee issue, but he could make a timely return to face one of his favoured European opponents. 

The France star has scored more Champions League goals against Man City than any other opponent (seven).

Among teams still remaining in the 2025-26 edition and prior to the round of 16 ties, the two players who have accounted for the highest share of their side's goals in the Champions League this term are Mbappe (54% - 13/24) and City's Erling Haaland (47% - 7/15).

Jude Bellingham is another injury concern for Los Blancos, who got back on track after successive LaLiga defeats by beating Celta Vigo 2-1 on Friday thanks to Federico Valverde's last-gasp goal.

So, the onus could well be on Vinicius Junior to do the damage for Alvaro Arbeloa's team.

The Brazilian is on 25 Champions League assists. He needs two more to match the tally of assists in the competition managed by Man City great Kevin De Bruyne, Madrid legend Raul, and his former Los Blancos team-mate Karim Benzema (all 27).

And Arbeloa's free-scoring team could pose City's defence a stern test. The last away team to keep a clean sheet in a Champions League knockout stage game away to Madrid was Barcelona, who were then managed by current Man City boss Guardiola (2-0 win), back in April 2011.

Since then, the Spanish side have scored in 39 in a row, averaging 2.2 goals per match (86 in total).

But Los Blancos have their own man mountain in between the sticks in Thibaut Courtois. Since (and including) the 2022 final against Liverpool, he has only conceded 39 goals (excl. OGs) from 53.2 xG on target faced in the Champions League. This positive differential (+14.2) is the highest of any goalkeeper in the competition in this period.

Guardiola out for glory on landmark European outing

This will mark Guardiola's 190th Champions League match as a manager, equalling Alex Ferguson's total in the competition.

Following this fixture, Guardiola will only trail former Madrid boss Carlo Ancelotti (218) on the list of most Champions League games by managers.

The Spaniard has won 117 games in the competition, trailing only Ancelotti (124), and Madrid (15) are the team Guardiola has faced the most in the competition. 

Guardiola has claimed more wins against Shakhtar Donetsk (eight) than any other team, with Madrid (six) next. Los Blancos are, however, the team that have inflicted the most Champions League defeats on Guardiola, getting the better of him on five occasions. 

But we could be in for a clash of styles over this two-legged encounter.

Coming into the round of 16 ties, City have scored the most goals following build-up sequences (six) in the Champions League this season, while no side has netted more following direct attacks than Madrid (four – level with Benfica). Los Blancos are also ranked first for total direct attacks (31) this term.

City are seven points off Premier League leaders Arsenal, and while Guardiola has not given up on the title hunt, it may well be that European glory is more likely than a domestic triumph.

According to the Opta supercomputer, City are fourth favourites to win the Champions League (11.1%). Remarkably, Madrid's chances are ranked at just 1.9%.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Real Madrid - Kylian Mbappe

Mbappe has already netted 13 times in the competition this term, meaning he is just four short of Cristiano Ronaldo's single-season record of 17.

Mbappe's 14 direct goal involvements in the 2025-26 Champions League is also the most of any player, ahead of Anthony Gordon's 12.

And the Frenchman has been in incredible form in 2026. Prior to his injury, Mbappe had failed to score or assist in just one of his eight starts since the turn of the year.

Manchester City - Erling Haaland

Since the start of the 2019-20 edition, which was Haaland's first in the competition, only four players have registered 50+ goal involvements in the Champions League.

Three of whom play for either Madrid (Mbappee 71, Vinicius Junior 55) or City (Erling Haaland 61), along with Barcelona's Robert Lewandowski (63).