Crystal Palace struggling but Aston Villa thriving, so does European football really hurt Premier League form?

  /  autty

It's a widely-held belief that European football hurts Premier League form, but is it true or is it a myth? We take a look in this week's edition of Between the Lines.

The latest round of Premier League games fed the narrative that teams tend to struggle directly after their European fixtures.

Chelsea and Arsenal played out a ragged 1-1 draw at Stamford Bridge on Sunday following their respective Champions League victories over Barcelona and Bayern Munich in midweek.

Spurs, Crystal Palace and Nottingham Forest also showed signs of fatigue as they were beaten by sides who had free midweeks in Fulham, Manchester United and Brighton respectively.

Of the nine Premier League teams in Europe, only Liverpool and Newcastle won comfortably, with Manchester City needing a stoppage-time goal to see off Leeds and Aston Villa scraping a one-goal win over bottom-of-the-table Wolves.

Mixed fortunes

But how have the Premier League's European representatives fared overall after their Champions League, Europa League and Conference League fixtures this season?

The chart below shows their fortunes have been mixed.

Crystal Palace, Nottingham Forest, Liverpool, Chelsea and Arsenal all have lower points-per-game averages after European nights compared to their other games.

But the other sides have fared much better, with Manchester City, Spurs, Newcastle and Aston Villa all recording higher points-per-game averages directly after their European assignments.

Only Burnley worse than Palace?

Having only won one of their six Premier League games after European fixtures this season, Palace have averaged just 0.8 points per game compared to 2.1 points per game in their other fixtures.

The 61-per-cent negative difference is the second-biggest for any Premier League side competing in Europe since the 2010/11 campaign.

Only Burnley in 2018/19 have seen a bigger negative difference in points per game after European fixtures. The Clarets drew one and lost three of their four games after Europa League fixtures that season as they failed to make it through the play-off rounds.

So why do sides like Burnley and Palace struggle?

A lack of squad depth is one issue when it comes to managing the extra workload presented by European qualification.

Oliver Glasner was outspoken on the subject after Palace's defeat to Manchester United on Sunday, bemoaning the club's failure to adequately strengthen their squad following their European qualification at the end of last season.

"We missed [the chance] to strengthen the depth of the squad in summer, and we knew the schedule, we knew that Ismaila [Sarr] would go to AFCON. Nothing happened, surprisingly," he said.

"When you play the first time in your history, European football, let's invest instead of save. We saved, and that's what we are facing."

Without rotation options trusted by Glasner, Palace have made fewer line-up changes than any other Premier League side this season, leading to fatigue among first-choice starters and contributing to their latest defeat.

It is worth noting that Forest, another side new to European competition in the Premier League era, have also struggled directly after their Europa League games this season.

Villa heeding previous lessons?

While Palace have recorded one of the biggest negative differences in points per game after European fixtures this season, Villa have recorded the biggest positive difference on record.

Unai Emery's side have won all five of their games directly after Europa League fixtures this season, which makes for a 167-per-cent increase on their points-per-game average in their other fixtures.

Unlike Palace and Forest, Villa have had two years to adapt to the extra demands having played in the Champions League and Conference League in the last two seasons.

Last season, they struggled in their games after the Champions League, only winning four out of 11. But lessons have been learned, with Emery making better use of his squad to keep his players fresh and keep them on track domestically.

Newcastle are also managing the workload better. The 100-per-cent positive difference to their points per game after Champions League fixtures this season is the third-biggest by any side since 2010/11.

Myth or reality?

While Palace, Forest, Villa and Newcastle offer extreme examples, there is little difference between results after European games compared to other games on average.

Since 2010/11, Premier League sides have averaged 1.76 points after European games compared to 1.79 points in other games.

The widely-held belief that Europe negatively impacts Premier League form is more myth than reality.

Read last week's Between the Lines

Last week we had a dig into Thomas Frank's "extreme" style overhaul at Tottenham and explained why the former Brentford head coach is struggling to make it click.

Related: Aston Villa Crystal Palace Oliver Glasner
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