EPL predictions: Villa to beat Everton & close gap on leaders Arsenal

Our football betting expert Jones Knows provides his insight across the Premier League weekend.

Aston Villa vs Everton, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports - PLAY SUPER 6!

David Moyes' record away from home against top-level opposition is horrendous.

Going all the way back to his West Ham days, his record away at Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester City reads 20 losses from 21 games. It's a brutal return.

Those games tend to follow the same script too: sit deep, limit damage, slow the tempo and hope to stay in the contest for as long as possible. Now, this fixture doesn't technically fall into that bracket - but at what point do we start calling Aston Villa an elite home side?

Villa Park has become a fortress. They've won their last 11 home games, a run that includes statement victories over Arsenal and Manchester City. The intensity, structure and belief Unai Emery has created is right up there with the very best in the league.

Moyes' away games are rarely chaotic, though. Since returning to Everton, just two of his 20 away matches have gone over 3.5 goals, with the average sitting at just 1.8 goals per 90. That's why combining a Villa win and under 3.5 goals makes sense at 11/10 with Sky Bet.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0

Brighton vs Bournemouth, Monday 8pm, live on Sky Sports

Bournemouth's away games this season are bonkers. They're averaging 4.8 goals per game on the road. Nope, not a typo. Yes, almost five goals per game.

The markets are fully aligned for goals in this one though, which naturally pushes us toward the anytime goalscorer angle.

And who better to target than Kaoru Mitoma? The Japanese winger is starting to look like his old sparky, nightmare-for-defenders self. His movement, bursts in behind and instinct for goal are all back in evidence - as shown by his goal vs Manchester City.

History gives us even more confidence. Mitoma has scored five goals in his last six games against Bournemouth - that bit of a psychological edge over the opposition isn't factored into the prices at 5/2 with Sky Bet.