Amid the drumbeat of another frenzied transfer window, it was easy to overlook the deal Nottingham Forest struck in mid-July for a player with little profile in the English game.
Now, with Forest within touching distance of their first FA Cup final since 1991, the football world is asking just how they managed to sign a centre back as good as Nikola Milenkovic for as little as £10.1million.
Forest had spent so haphazardly in the first six months after promotion that they became a laughing stock in recruitment circles. No longer.
At the City Ground, they have been getting these things right for some time now and Milenkovic is just one example of the shrewd transfer policy behind an outstanding campaign for Nuno Espirito Santo’s side. Though facing Manchester City in a high-stakes match at Wembley is one of football’s toughest tasks, Forest must feel anything is possible with Milenkovic and Murillo at the heart of their back line.
Yet how did they nab Milenkovic, and how was he available for such a reasonable price? The story starts with Vincenzo Italiano, one of Italy’s brightest coaches but whose time at Fiorentina saw Milenkovic lose a little stardust in the eyes of top clubs.
The 27-year-old has the attributes of a traditional centre back. An outstanding marker who is excellent in the air, Milenkovic nevertheless lacks a little pace. This was not a problem from 2017-2021, when Milenkovic established himself as one of the best defenders in Italy and started to attract interest across Serie A and beyond.
Yet when Italiano arrived in 2021, Milenkovic’s job became more complicated. Italiano belongs to the generation of coaches who idolise Pep Guardiola and was committed to operating with a high defensive line.
Though Milenkovic remained a regular under Italiano, making an impressive 131 appearances during his tenure, the style simply did not suit him.
West Ham had come close to striking a deal for Milenkovic during the summer, Italiano was hired and perhaps it would have been better for the Serb had he moved — especially as West Ham beat Fiorentina in the Europa Conference League final two years later.
Watching Milenkovic in Italiano’s system, the leading clubs stalled. They decided they needed more than a pure defender and focused instead on ball-playing centre backs who are comfortable stepping into midfield. Juventus had liked Milenkovic for a long time but wanted to play a progressive game under new coach Thiago Motta (since sacked). Champions Inter Milan also decided to pass. More fool them.
Forest’s recruitment team, led by George Syrianos and Ross Wilson, understood that Milenkovic would be perfect for Nuno’s idea of football — the exact opposite to Italiano’s. For starters, they needed to improve at defending set-pieces after conceding 23 goals that way last term. This season, they have let in only seven.
In Murillo, Nuno already had a centre back who could advance with the ball. He needed a foil who could dominate in the air, stick closely to the centre forward and win duels. Due also to his outstanding injury record, Milenkovic was top of all Forest’s lists and with Fiorentina needing to sell, Forest were able to negotiate an outstanding price.
Nuno has no interest in having the ball all the time, and Forest’s average possession count of 39.8 per cent is the lowest in the Premier League this term. Rather than urging them towards the halfway line, Nuno wants his defenders to prioritise keeping the ball out of the net. Sure enough, with Milenkovic marshalling the back line, Forest have let in 39 goals this season, with only Liverpool and Arsenal conceding fewer.
According to Opta statistics, Milenkovic has won nearly 72 per cent of his aerial battles this season, placing him second behind James Tarkowski and above third-placed Virgil van Dijk. He also ranks in the top 10 for clearances and ability to stop an onrushing opponent in his tracks.
Milenkovic’s value is as great off the pitch as on it. His desire to win is so great that casual table-tennis matches between players at Forest’s training ground take on the intensity of a gold-medal contest at the Olympics when Milenkovic plays. ‘The Serbian people do not play for enjoyment,’ he has said. ‘They play to win.’ Even without that edge, Milenkovic is an intimidating presence. He is 6ft 5in tall and has a steely gaze.
Morgan Gibbs-White is one of the alpha males of this Forest team and after a mix-up with Milenkovic during a recent game, the attacking midfielder decided to let rip at his colleague. Not surprisingly, Gibbs-White backed down a little when Milenkovic responded in kind. He would not be the only one.
Even though this is Milenkovic’s first season in the Premier League, he speaks English well. Growing up, he idolised Nemanja Vidic, the outstanding Serbian centre back who won 15 trophies in eight and a half years with Manchester United.
The day before games he will study clips on an iPad of the players he is likely to be marking. Milenkovic will doubtless be happy to scroll past the videos of Erling Haaland, who misses the game through injury, though the nippy Omar Marmoush will provide a different sort of challenge.
Gibbs-White is a target for Manchester City and, if he leaves, Milenkovic will be a contender to lead the team when Ryan Yates is off the pitch. He has displayed the same leadership qualities at Forest that endeared him to supporters at Fiorentina. Milenkovic is still appreciated in Florence for signing a new five-year deal in summer 2022 that ensured his value was protected, even though few expected him to see out the contract.
Milenkovic’s value now is far higher than the sum Forest paid for him. Beat City on Sunday and those clubs who ignored him will feel even more annoyed with themselves.