Journalist: Over a third of premier league clubs are for sale, but buyers are scarce

A report from Miguel Delaney of The Independent claims that over a third of Premier League clubs are now up for sale; despite the ongoing Manchester City case, this significant change could potentially solve a major problem in English football.

Miguel Delaney's report states that over the past few weeks, people on the Premier League board have noticed a very clear change. Previously, discussions revolved around wanting to buy clubs but finding few available; now, the conversation has shifted to wanting to sell clubs.

The current assessment is that at least eight clubs – over a third of the league total – have been formally or informally put up for sale in some form.

Some of these already have formal prospectuses, while others have owners willing to listen to offers. Some would consider an outright sale, while others are only willing to divest a minority stake. However, the current problem is that there are too few buyers. The market has changed, but this could lead to a broader restructuring.

This might depend on a larger story, specifically the impact of recent developments in the Manchester City case, a factor that runs through all these changes. Just a few months ago, the Jeff Bezos consortium's investment in Liverpool was seen as the peak of high-level acquisitions.

At the time, the Premier League was seen as an attractive area for investment because it was not strongly correlated with global markets, helping to diversify investment portfolios; this was built upon the surge in club acquisitions by American institutional funds after the COVID-19 pandemic.

Now, many of the same factors are beginning to work in reverse. The previous wave of major acquisitions has turned into a major sell-off. At least, it has turned into an attempt to sell off.

A source told The Independent that, on an "absolute level," no one is buying now, and the market has "stagnated." However, some sporadic minority equity deals are still progressing, provided they indeed have "value."

An experienced source emphasized that this is partly "due to circumstances." Before Christmas, it was impossible for the independent football regulator to approve any deals, so there was very little activity.

Others in the industry point out that, due to ongoing global uncertainty, billionaires are no longer as willing to invest as before. Nowadays, they prefer to invest their capital in American sports. The Kroenke family, owners of Arsenal, finalized a $4 billion deal to acquire the Los Angeles Angels in September, while Josh Kushner and Bob Iger closed a record-breaking $12.5 billion Los Angeles Lakers deal in August.

Crises in the Gulf region and other concerns may affect the flow of football funds, as a large amount of investment comes from that area. Now, many corners of football are indirectly affected by it.

Rumors that the Saudi Public Investment Fund is willing to sell Newcastle United have been circulating for at least two years.

However, perhaps more importantly, many buyers believe that English football is now in the exact opposite situation compared to five years ago.

During that acquisition wave, it was seen as "a growth trend," which is typically considered the most suitable type of business for such investors to enter.

Now, most clubs' revenues are not growing, and English football is considered to have "peaked."

The next round of broadcasting rights cycles may make this very clear, as in the Premier League's last broadcasting contract, single-match broadcasting revenue declined for the first time in history.

The current expectation is that domestic broadcasting rights prices will remain largely unchanged, while international broadcasting rights prices will slightly decrease – unless a streaming giant unexpectedly enters the fray.

All of this only further reinforces the feeling that Brentford, Brighton & Hove Albion, and AFC Bournemouth are performing well because they all have excellent operational and strategic departments.

Many are waiting to see how that case ends, especially as it might also force Abu Dhabi to sell the club.

Regardless of the outcome, the nature of the Manchester City matter itself is believed to be destined to bring about some form of restructuring.

Even at the most basic level, the almost guaranteed Champions League qualification spots could be disrupted, and this change could last for several years. Financial forecasts would also be rewritten.

But if Manchester City's appeal unexpectedly succeeds, they will once again be at the center of it all, and may even be more confident as a result.

Many potential owners and investors want to see how this ultimately plays out before deciding whether to act.

Another aspect is that this could trigger forced sales and further lead to a larger discussion about state capital or state-linked capital ownership.

If such acquisitions are restricted, the market will change accordingly, and the overall ceiling will be lowered.

All of this runs parallel to another deeper idea: the introduction of an independent football regulator, coinciding with the Manchester City case, itself presents a rare opportunity for a complete overhaul. And not just an overhaul.

But given that both these developments revolve around the core principles of English football, what truly needs reflection is what the sport actually wants to be; what clubs and owners should be; and what their roles are.

The current increased focus on executives and acquisitions further clarifies the environment we are in.

English football has moved from the player era before 1945, to the manager era before 2003, and has now entered the owner era. This means that the figures who can most influence the sport have changed.

The most telling example of this is if an entire era of clubs with self-sustaining capabilities and large fan bases is completely determined by their respective owners, then something is clearly wrong.

In a well-functioning sport, the future of football should not be dictated by this.

Conversely, just look at Manchester United under the Glazer family, Newcastle United under Mike Ashley and perhaps his successor, Liverpool under Tom Hicks and George Gillett... the examples are numerous.

National sports should not depend on which one-percenter happens to choose you, especially after the independent football regulator has legally recognized the social importance of the sport.

This is precisely why, despite much controversy, any future financial regulation should not rely on owner investment.

One of the biggest problems in English football right now is the £300 million annual commercial revenue gap between the wealthiest clubs and others.

Sources told The Independent that the existing system makes this gap almost impossible to bridge, creating a "subsurface competitive imbalance gap."

The ensuing wage inflation pushes the entire football financial system upwards, forcing clubs into high-risk capital investments and bringing ever-increasing pressure.

This pressure, in turn, forces fan-owned clubs like AFC Wimbledon to consider selling shares to private investors, despite the independent football regulator explicitly encouraging fan ownership.

The system overseen by the regulator actually seems to run counter to this. Coupled with all other issues, this should be a signal: now is the best time for a restructuring.