LIV's drop-off holds lessons for Slot as fatigue takes toll against Newcastle

Arne Slot rejected the idea that Liverpool's Carabao Cup final loss to Newcastle was down to fatigue, saying it had "nothing to do with running" in his post-match press conference. Instead, he highlighted his side's failure to win enough duels.

It is in those physical battles, though, that the signs of tiredness have become most apparent. In the last fortnight, Liverpool have registered three of their five lowest duel success rates all season.

The issue was most pronounced away against Paris Saint-Germain, when Liverpool won just 32.5 per cent of the game's duels, the club's lowest success rate on record in the Champions League. In the second leg of that tie at Anfield, and against Newcastle at Wembley on Sunday, their success rate was 42.7 per cent.

The dip can be traced back further in the Premier League. Before the turn of the year, Liverpool won more than 50 per cent of their duels in nine games out of 18. They have only done so in two out of 11 since. Slot might not admit it but his side have lost their physical edge.

"Liverpool's legs have run out of steam," as Sky Sports pundit Jamie Carragher put it on Sunday. "Set-piece wise, duels in the middle of the park and for pace, Liverpool couldn't cope."

Happily for Slot, there has been no meaningful impact to their results in the Premier League. Performance levels have fluctuated but Liverpool remain unbeaten since the 1-0 loss to Nottingham Forest in September. Their 12-point lead over Arsenal at the top of the table should allow them to win the title with room to spare.

That feat alone would of course constitute a triumphant first season in charge for Slot. Few fancied his Liverpool side as title winners back in August. But if he is to repeat their success next term, and go the distance in the cup competitions too, he will need to heed the lessons of their dip.

He could argue, with some justification, that his conservative approach to rotation has helped Liverpool build their commanding position at the top of the Premier League. He has leaned heavily on his best players, yes. But they have delivered, mostly staying fit and putting Liverpool on track for a 90-point campaign.

There were always questions, though, over the sustainability of such a policy and the recent slump highlights the dangers.

Liverpool's average of 1.76 line-up changes per game in the Premier League is the seventh-lowest in the division this season and makes them an outlier compared to recent title winners. The last seven sides to have won the title, dating back to Manchester City in 2017/18 have averaged 2.79 line-up changes per game.

Those sides were able to maintain freshness until the end, in most cases, but Liverpool now find themselves with too many players having played too many minutes. Virgil van Dijk, Mohamed Salah, Ryan Gravenberch and Alexis Mac Allister have all played more than 3,000. There are others not far behind them.

In fact, with Dominik Szoboszlai, Trent Alexander-Arnold, Andy Robertson, Luis Diaz and Ibrahima Konate also close to that threshold, Liverpool have nine players in the top 50 for minutes played by Premier League players in all competitions this season.

No other side has more than six.

Some, of course, such as Salah and Van Dijk, are accustomed to such a heavy workload. But even they are not immune to fatigue, as their recent form shows, and it is new to others.

Gravenberch's minutes have increased by a whopping 46 per cent this season. With two months of the campaign still to go, Konate has already played more minutes than he did in the whole of last term. Mac Allister is on course to comfortably exceed his total for last season too.

All of those players, like Van Dijk and even Salah, have looked understandably heavy-legged at times recently and struggled to maintain their consistency in the second half of the season.

It is no coincidence that those behind them in the pecking order, far fresher having been used so sparingly over the course of the campaign, have made the biggest contributions in recent weeks.

Liverpool's winning goal in Paris came from Darwin Nunez setting up Harvey Elliott. Substitutes combined for their goal at Wembley too, with Elliott playing the pass to release Federico Chiesa.

Elliott, though, has played a paltry 583 minutes in all competitions this season, down from 2,786 last term, while Chiesa has played even fewer, on 387 following his arrival from Juventus in August.

It might simply be the case that Slot doesn't rate the majority of his squad players. They are not his players, after all, with Chiesa the only signing made since he succeeded Jurgen Klopp.

He will hope for a chance to reconfigure his squad this summer. The transfer window is likely to be key, especially amid the continuing uncertainty around the futures of Salah, Van Dijk and Alexander-Arnold. But Slot might have to re-think aspects of his own approach too. It is to his credit that Liverpool's Premier League success already looks inevitable. The next challenge will be to sustain it.