The World Cup round of 16 kicks off on Saturday and our tipster Jones Knows takes to the prediction chair to dig out some juicy betting angles.
Argentina vs Australia, Saturday 7pm - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
One of my World Cup heroes has been Aussie brute Harry Souttar, who embodied the spirit within his team with some huge performances to repel allcomers. However, this might be just one step too far.
Dealing with Martin Braithwaite is one thing, coping with Lionel Messi is another. The markets have priced this one as, arguably, the most one-sided World Cup knockout match in history with Argentina 1/5 with Sky Bet to win in 90 minutes. It's been a wacky tournament but if Australia knock out Argentina then we can certainly tell the World Cup 'to go home, you are drunk'.
It's not a great betting heat with such skinny odds on all Argentina-based bets but those looking for an angle to get with them at a respectable price may want to take the 5/6 with Sky Bet on an Argentina win and under 3.5 goals. Every one of their last 11 wins in competitive matches have fallen under the 3.5 line, including both of their wins at this World Cup. Job done and move on could be the tactic.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0
France vs Poland, Sunday 3pm - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
No matter how much my heart wants to find a sustainable and logical angle to back Poland so potentially England have a cakewalk of a quarter-final, my head just can't sanction it. It's a bit of a mystery how the Poles are even still in the competition.
Saudi Arabia win aside, in the other two matches they failed to score and looking at the expected goals data that wasn't a surprise. In matches against Mexico and Argentina they created a total non-penalty expected goals tally of 0.47. Wojciech Szczesny and Robert Lewandowski will need to have games of their lives to stop a very exciting French team that lacks strength in depth but has the most dangerous first-choice attack in the competition.
With goals predicted, the French front four of Kylian Mbappe, Olivier Giroud, Antonie Griezmann and Ousmane Dembele are all runners in the goalscorer markets. Dembele is the biggest price of all four at 9/4 to score anytime with Sky Bet and that looks a little chunky considering he's looked 'on it' at this tournament. In his two starts, he's had four shots to an expected goals return of 0.42. He can score in a France win.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0
England vs Senegal, Sunday 7pm
In what is likely to be a cagey encounter, set-pieces are going to play a huge part for England.
Gareth Southgate completely understands the importance of set-pieces at tournaments. I'd assume he'd be well aware of just how many goals come via this method at a World Cup during this stage. In the last 48 last-16 games, 31 goals have been scored via a set piece - that doesn't include penalties. It's a per-game average of 0.6, meaning there is a goal scored from a corner or free-kick situation every two games.
England are one of the most dominant sides from such scenarios, scoring 11 of their 29 non-penalty goals in major tournaments under Southgate from set-pieces. Harry Maguire has been responsible for two of those goals and England's force of nature is taken to score a header in this one at a massive 16/1 with Sky Bet.
Maguire has seven goals in 51 caps for his country and is the target of every set-piece pumped into the England box, meaning you get a great run for your money when he pulls on the England shirt. Senegal conceded from a corner in their win over Ecuador and you can bet your life on Southgate hatching a plan with Maguire at the forefront to exploit any area of weakness in the opposition back line.
lawalidris
19
but England are so better that they look like WC favourites I don't see anything other than elimination waiting for Senegal bro coming as a neutral fan😀
I am actually a fan of England but I am being sentimental because of my African root.