Lewandowski? Vardy? Dybala? How Manchester United could replace Ronaldo

Although Cristiano Ronaldo's impact, influence and future at Manchester United may be up for debate, all of the club's fans can agree that Erik ten Hag will need to use this summer to future-proof his attack.

Here are a few options to replace a player often called irreplaceable…

The obvious replacement(s)

The most obvious way to replace Ronaldo is to bring in a striker of Ten Hag's choosing. As we've covered here, the new United manager has used a variety of players as the No 9 and is not afraid to change his tactical approach to get the best out of the man leading the line. For example, during the Champions League knockout stages of 2018-19, he used Dusan Tadic as a false nine, which created space for his team-mates.

There is no fixed idea of what a "Ten Hag striker" is, but if the United manager wished to replace Ronaldo with an out-and-out centre-forward then Napoli's Victor Osimhen is a worthy candidate.

Using smarterscout data — which gives players a rating from zero to 99, relating to either how often they do a given action compared with others playing in their position (such as the ball recoveries and interceptions) or how effective they are (such as how well they progress the ball upfield) — we can take a closer look at the Nigeria forward.

Osimhen is one of the most sought-after young strikers in Europe, known for his dribbling (look at his carry and dribble volume of 91 out of 99 in the pizza chart below) and his propensity to get a shot away (shot volume, 99 out of 99).

Then check out his shot map below. One thing is clear: give Osimhen the ball and he's going to take a lot of shots (4.1 shots per 90) and try to make things happen. That's a valuable addition to a United team that was often short of confidence and quality in 2021-22.

At the time of writing, Napoli are believed to be an outside candidate for Ronaldo's signature. A direct swap would be an administrative headache, but if Ronaldo were to end up in Naples, it may give United a headstart in any negotiations for Osimhen.

Tammy Abraham would be another outstanding choice for United and Ten Hag, but is only one year into a five-year contract at Roma and would be harder to extricate.

If United did move on Ronaldo and his hefty wages this summer, they could have some extra spending money for a striker of Osimhen or Abraham's quality.

The short-term fix

Jose Mourinho had Zlatan Ibrahimovic and Ole Gunnar Solskjaer had Odion Ighalo, Edinson Cavani and Ronaldo. Since Sir Alex Ferguson's retirement, United have signed several strikers in their 30s as short-term fixes for attacking needs.

The success of each veteran is varied, but if Ten Hag wants such a player, then Jamie Vardy, who has no new contract offer from Leicester City and only one year left to run on his deal, should be considered.

The 35-year-old scored 15 goals in the Premier League last season and is a proven talent. He runs the channels and hassles defenders effectively (defending impact 66 out of 99), makes lots of short dribbles around the goal (carry and dribble volume 58 out of 99) and has a knack for being at the right place at the right time (receptions in the opposition box 89 out of 99).

Vardy does not contribute to Leicester's build-up as much as he used to (xG from ball progression 28 out of 99) but he is still hugely effective at finishing team moves with a goal. His shot map for last season is a good illustration of the nous he brings to a side. This is a man who knows where the goal is and prefers to shoot when close to it.

Vardy's goalscoring record is also of interest, with the striker often outstripping his expected goals (xG) — showing how he is likely to make the most of the chances he has. On the graphic below, the blue shows when he has outperformed his xG.

He is best suited to a team that wants to attack directly and would be a decent short-term fix for United if Ten Hag needs a striker to help him navigate a tricky first season.

The Chelsea negotiations

Here's what we know: Todd Boehly, Chelsea's new co-owner, met with Ronaldo's agent, Jorge Mendes last month. On Monday, July 4 The Athletic reported Chelsea are now considering a move for the striker.

How Ronaldo fits in Thomas Tuchel's side is a difficult question. A more fun one is, "Who should United ask Chelsea for in exchange?"

This brings us to 20-year-old striker Armando Broja.

The Albania international signed a five-year contract at Stamford Bridge before heading out to Southampton last season and became a valuable tool in Ralph Hasenhuttl's high-pressing 4-2-2-2 system. His punchy dribbling style (carry & dribble volume 84 out of 99 and xG from ball progression 57 out of 99) was key to how Southampton advanced the ball up the field during games, and his active threat in the air (aerial duels quantity 93 out of 99) was valuable in both penalty areas.

Broja's shot map is solid for a striker in their first Premier League season at a bottom-half club. Southampton have had long-standing difficulties creating and finishing chances, but Broja's tenacity around goal gave them a fighting chance in their scrappier games. Earlier this week, The Athletic reported that Everton had made a move to sign Broja. He would be a good fit to replace the attacking quality and drive Richarlison brought to Frank Lampard's side.

If we look at where Broja aims his shots, we can see he prefers to shoot low to the left of the goal. Naturally right-footed, Broja opts to strike the ball hard, and with plenty of top-spin, similar to Danny Ings and Harry Kane.

If Broja was included in any exchange for Ronaldo, he'd be a useful squad option, rather than the immediate starting striker for 2022-23.

Another Chelsea player United could ask for is Callum Hudson-Odoi, who could play several positions.

Hudson-Odoi played limited Premier League minutes under Tuchel last season and was often used as one of the inside forwards of a 3-4-2-1. As such, the below image — with limited minutes — compares him to other attacking midfielders, rather than wingers.

He is an active dribbler (carry & dribble volume, 87 out of 99) who will most likely keep his passing neat and tidy (link-up play volume 86 out of 99 and ball retention 78 out of 99). However, he can be inconsistent in the final third (nearly all of his mediocre scores are in the blue segment) and in his defensive duties (the high disrupting opposition moves rating suggests Hudson-Odoi knows the importance of tracking back and defending, his other scores in red suggest he is not always effective in doing so).

With Chelsea interested in securing Raheem Sterling and Raphinha, Hudson-Odoi's Chelsea career is at a crossroads. Being included in a part-exchange deal could offer him a new direction at United.

The Wildcard Options

If you're of the belief that United should attempt something drastic when replacing Ronaldo, might we suggest Robert Lewandowski?

Lewandowski's ability to find space in and around the penalty area (receptions in the opposition's box 86 out of 99) and consistently get a shot away at the soonest opportunity (shot volume 99 out of 99) mean he is a striker who can be depended upon. He tends to finish other players' moves rather than create free-flowing dribbles of his own but, such is his exceptional finishing ability, it is not an issue for a side that can dominate possession like Bayern Munich.

His shot map for 2021-22 is quite the sight. Few players in the world take this many shots on goal (4.7 per 90). Fewer still take this many good shots. In his own words, "the situation determines your finish."

Even when Lewandowski has an off year and "merely" matches his xG rate, he's still one of the best goalscorers in the world — scoring approximately one non-penalty goal per game across the last three seasons.

Convincing Lewandowski to spend a year in the Europa League rather than Champions League will be a struggle but he has publicly stated his desire to leave Bayern Munich this summer and is thought to be of interest to Barcelona. Lewandowski is one of the best strikers in the world and is likely to stay that way for at least another season.

If you believe that United should shun traditional No 9s and instead try to restore the improvisational attacks of the 2020-21 campaign, then might we recommend a Ten Hag reunion with Ajax winger Antony?

Previously covered in a "Shopping for Ten Hag" shortlist, Antony could serve as a secondary goalscorer and creator alongside Bruno Fernandes and Jadon Sancho in an attacking midfield trio. Factor in the arrival of Christian Eriksen, and the possible signing of Frenkie de Jong and United's midfield would be of such an attacking quality that Marcus Rashford or Anthony Martial become viable options as central strikers.

Ronaldo performed well on an individual level last season but served as a (limited) fixed point in what had previously been a more fluid and free-moving attack. Ten Hag could replace his goalscoring efforts with a younger, more collective approach.

The nice problem scenario

If you're of the belief that United have a habit of making expensive eye-grabbing decisions instead of sensible ones, then let us talk about Paulo Dybala, who is a free agent.

The 28-year-old is an anachronistic figure, who might have predominately played as a second striker in a pairing if he emerged in the mid-1990s. In his most recent season for Juventus, however, he played somewhere between the striker and the No 10 position, in a similar manner to Dele Alli's best years for Tottenham Hotspur.

Like Dele at Tottenham or Fernandes at United now, Dybala remains a talented enigma. He is a talented passer (link-up play volume 73 out of 99 and progressive passing 75 out of 99) and can shoot well, but his true talents come from his off-the-ball movement, especially in relation to a striker ahead of him. He prefers the ball to feet and drifts left to right when in central areas.

Dybala can be a frustrating figure, someone who needs the team built around him to properly flourish, but also someone who, even at his best, garnishes games rather than dominates them.

(We can only apologise if reading that sentence leads you to think about a recently departed United player.)

His shot map for last season can best be described as wasteful. The Argentinian has a very good ball-striking technique, but gambles on it far too often, attempting long-range, low-quality efforts from distance that often waste possession.

He's also a streaky finisher who can need extended runs in a team to build match sharpness and become a more instinctive finisher. When Dybala is good, he's really good. When he's not, he can look out of place and out of step with his team.

Inter Milan are said to be reluctant to match Dybala's considerable wage package. The striker's injury history (he had six injury breaks in 2021-22, missing 16 games) and age (he will turn 29 just before the World Cup) also invite caution.

So what happens next?

There is no perfect way to replace Ronaldo. The 37-year-old may not be the player he once was, but he commands attention in a way few footballers will ever match. His wage considerations, coupled with his style of play, mean there will always be a limited pool of suitors of his signature and this will likely be a long-running story this summer.

United would be wise to cut through any distractions Ronaldo may bring and instead plan for the future of their attack without him.

United have survived Ronaldo's departure once. They can do it again.