Liverpool's problem needs creative solution but Klopp's tactics are not to blame

Football is a fickle sport. The system which had served Liverpool so well during their 44-match unbeaten run was placed firmly under the microscope as soon as Michael Oliver blew for full-time on Saturday. Watford had stunned the Premier League leaders, sweeping them aside in what turned out to be a comfortable 3-0 win.

In the space of 90 minutes, the Reds went from looking like a well-oiled machine to a team bereft of ideas. Jurgen Klopp's side had huffed and puffed in previous matches before eventually finding a match-winner. At Vicarage Road, however, it was a different story. No huffs and no puffs, Liverpool offered nothing going forward. And for fans, it was a concern and the latest in a series of underwhelming showings from the champions-elect.

Since the Premier League leaders returned from their winter break, they've looked out of sorts. The Reds followed up lacklustre performances against Norwich City and Atletico Madrid with a 3-2 win over West Ham United, but they needed a helping hand from goalkeeper Łukasz Fabiański. Liverpool have been the opposite of assured and confident.

Talk has, inevitably, turned to what has gone wrong.

The Naby Keita vs Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain debate took centre stage following the victory over West Ham. But with the former missing for the trip to Watford and the latter failing to deliver when thrust back into the starting XI, fingers were pointed elsewhere.

The loss of Jordan Henderson and Joe Gomez was offered up as an explanation for the humbling by the Hornets but the attack took the brunt of the criticism. The Reds have scored just four goals in their last three outings in the Premier League and their open-play expected goals per 90 has averaged out at 1.52. For context, in their previous 25 matches in the English top-flight, their average was 1.8. That might not seem like much of a difference but over the entirety of a 38-hame season, that is a swing of over 11 goals.

Furthermore, Liverpool as a team usually over-perform their expected numbers. For example, this season they had scored 2.4 goals per 90 up until the winter break. Since then, this average has dropped to 1.33. The Reds went from exceeding higher averages to struggling for par on lower ones.

But the blame can't be placed solely on Sadio Mane, Roberto Firmino and Mohamed Salah. Now when their supply line has been compromised. Trent Alexander-Arnold is the creator-in-chief for the Reds but in matches against Norwich and Watford, he struggled to impose himself in open play. In a bid to smother him, opposition managers are tasking their left-sided attacker with almost man-marking him. Credit to those players, they've been diligent in the defensive third.

In the still above, it is Roberto Pereyra putting pressure on the Liverpool No.66. His desire to get close to the right-back means Alexander-Arnold is rushed into releasing the ball quicker and his cross isn't as measured as it usually would be. The Argentina international blocks the attempt and Watford hold firm.

It seems straightforward but so many forward players usually fail to track runners.

It's a similar story above. Jordan Henderson sweeps the ball out wide from deep and Alexander-Arnold is able to gallop into space. But he's not alone. Rumoured Liverpool transfer target Todd Cantwell is tracking him and this allows Norwich left-back Jamal Lewis to remain in a central area and he's able to clear the cross.

It'd be naive, and wrong, to suggest that Klopp's tactics have been found out. But the opposition are getting a little braver in the way they look to limit Alexander-Arnold's influence.

To an extent, the 21-year-old has been nullified in certain games. Due to this, the midfield is once again being scrutinised. For a period of time, their creativity, or lack of, was a divisive topic. That talk died down when it became apparent that the system was geared towards getting the best out of the two full-backs. However, the showing against Watford has seen this jump to the top of the agenda once again.

Liverpool's expected goals total against Nigel Pearson's side was just 0.20. The midfield on the day was Fabinho, Gini Wijnaldum and Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain. All three have been accused of poor showings as of late and despite not being in the team to create, that is what they're being judged on when things don't go to plan.

Wijnaldum, the enigma, went from being the player whose impact can't be quantified to having his output called into question. He's not assisted a goal in the Premier League since the 2017/18 campaign. Likewise, Oxlade-Chamberlain was labelled the difference-maker against West Ham but following the defeat to Watford, his assist record was also called into question. The last time he assisted a team-mate in the Premier League was April 2018. Of course, he missed a year due to injury but since returning he's been amongst the goals but not the assists.

It isn't like either of them have just been unlucky. Oxlade-Chamberlain's open-play expected assist per 90 average is 0.07 this season, Wijnaldum's is 0.05. By comparison, Alexander-Arnold's is 0.21.

Liverpool's most creative midfielder in that regard is Keita, with his 0.27 average but he's rarely played and the sample size is tiny. Of those with 1,000 minutes or more, Henderson is the best for the Reds with an average of 0.16.

But the truth is, Klopp's midfield isn't there to create and judging them on that is always going to lead to disappointment. The Liverpool midfield is packed with enablers and facilitators. They're the players who allow Alexander-Arnold to do his thing. They cover areas to ensure Salah and Mane can be in central zones.

The Premier League leaders are reliant on their right-back for creativity. They do lean on Robertson on the left, too. But this isn't a negative. All teams rely on their creative players for creativity. There's a reason Manchester City look to Kevin de Bruyne for moments of inspiration. Manchester United are already dependant on Bruno Fernandes and James Maddison pulls the strings for Leicester City.

Liverpool are 22 points clear because of their style of football. Alexander-Arnold and Robertson have 19 Premier League assists between them this term because of the system used by Klopp. The Reds could be more creative in central areas but it'd come at the expense of creativity elsewhere. This team is all about balance and they've got it spot on for the past two seasons. One loss doesn't change that.