In a competition as exciting as the Premier League, with fantastic footballers fighting it out week in week out, it is remarkable that the signing of one player can generate such anticipation.
But Erling Haaland is that man. His arrival at Manchester City has fans, pundits and analysts licking their lips and wondering just what the Norwegian striker and his new team-mates will be capable of.
The £51million signing touched down in Manchester last week and is set to be unveiled, and will be available for a full pre-season with City, following the international break and a holiday.
Top-flight rivals could be forgiven for fearing the worst: City netted 99 goals last season as they claimed the Premier League title, and now they’ve bought an irrepressible, 6ft 4in goal machine.
There is plenty to be afraid of when Haaland, who has scored 62 league goals in 67 appearances for Borussia Dortmund, is on the field. His performances place him in the top one per cent for goals per game and touches in the opposition box in Europe's top five leagues.
But as Timo Werner has found out at Chelsea, the Premier League is a tougher test than the German Bundesliga.
So, how will Haaland, who will be paid £375,000 per week, enhance City, and what can rivals can do to limit his threat? Sportsmail asked Analytics FC, data epperts who work with Premier League clubs, to run the rule over the ‘beast' (according to Jurgen Klopp), using their TransferLab scouting platform.
He shoots… and scores
Erling Haaland has an eye-popping goalscoring record.
He averages one goal per game over his career, and he is both the youngest and the fastest player to reach 20 Champions League goals, doing so in just 14 games at 20 years old.
Behind the jaw-dropping stats is a tried and trusted method, which Haaland has perfected. In short, like the irrepressible Gary Lineker in the 1980s, Haaland gives himself the best chance of success by occupying areas of the pitch where he is most likely to score.
‘He is a high volume shot taker,’ analyst Yash Thakur told Sportsmail. ‘This doesn’t mean he scrimps on efficiency. He tests the goalkeeper regularly; he has put up a shots-on-target percentage of just under 50% since joining Dortmund.’
The Norwegian averages 3.56 shots per 90 and converts every fourth effort into a goal. For comparison, Haaland’s conversion rate is better than those of Kylian Mbappe, Karim Benzema and Robert Lewandowski.
And the 21-year-old consistently outperforms expectations – he netted 22 times for Dortmund last season, against an expected goals figure of just 15. This means he is not relying only on team-mates putting the ball on a plate, he is turning poor chances into goals.
Penalty box predator
Football, as we are all know, is a simple game. At the elite level, studies show more than 70 per cent of goals are scored from within the penalty box, hence that is where the most prolific strikers do their work.
And Haaland has made the penalty area his office. On average, he nets from just 12 metres from the goal.
‘Looking at the location of his shots at Dortmund, Haaland manages to regularly shoot from high-value areas in front of the frame of the goal, highlighting his decision making and thoughtful shot selection,’ said Thakur.
The graphic illustrating Haaland’s shooting pattern peppers the penalty area and rarely strays outside the box. In fact, 95% of his goals this season have come in that part of the pitch.
The Norwegian international, who has 17 caps and 15 goals so far, has also displayed a range of finishes, from piledrivers to deft chips, and he is adept at putting the ball beyond the keeper’s reach.
‘These attributes should translate well to a Manchester City side that regularly creates a high volume of high-quality chances,’ adds Thakur. ‘Haaland will have plenty of service to thrive.’
Filling the void
City work opponents exceptionally hard in wide areas. They use their domination of the ball to manufacture opportunities to cross from the byline or down the sides of the penalty area.
They are patient on the ball, creating triangles down the flanks with repeated runners into those areas. This movement is hard for defenders to pick up and it taxes the concentration of the best players over 90-plus minutes.
The result is City attempted more crosses (550) than anyone else in Europe last season. They dominate crosses from the byline area in the Premier League too.
These cut backs and passes into the penalty area set up chances in the high-value scoring zones, where Haaland loves to work, unlike most of City's forward players since the departure of the great striker Sergio Aguero.
‘This should connect well with having a disruptive presence in the box who can occupy centre-backs and pull them away to vacate space or play on their blindsides to meet a cross,’ says Thakur.
‘Haaland will fill the void of a central presence in the box for City.’
Fast-moving unit…
At 13 stone 12 pounds, Haaland is a ‘big unit’, but as well as strong, he is fast and clever in his movement, which makes him more than a handful for defenders.
The former Dortmund marksman was clocked at 35.94km/h in the Bundesliga last season, making him the fifth fastest player in the league. That would put him in or around the top 10 in the Premier League, and faster than most defenders, with the exception of Antonio Rudiger, who is on his way out of Chelsea.
‘Haaland’s movement is arguably his most destructive weapon,’ says Thakur. ‘He uses a combination of start-stop movements that catch defenders off balance, using his quick acceleration to gain valuable yards on them.
‘He always manages to maintain a distance from his markers to allow him the extra yard to turn or ask questions of them using his double movements.’
Haaland is not a target man in the traditional, English sense, but he will be a fantastic target for Kevin De Bruyne and Co’s pinpoint passing.
He uses his speed and smart movement to work the channels between the full back and centre back and consistently manages to get in behind backlines.
This is a play City like to employ, too. They have attempted 63 through-balls in the 2021-22 season. Only Liverpool and PSG have attempted more. It perfectly plays into the strengths of Haaland.
How to stop Erling Haaland… catch him early
The best hope may simply be to play City early in the season.
Haaland is a terrific player, Pep Guardiola an unbelievable coach and City’s players among the best in the world, but it will take time to adapt to changes in the league and playing style.
‘In the 21-22 season, City have often used (Phil) Foden, (Raheem) Sterling or (Gabriel) Jesus as the striker, players that tend to drift out wide to pull out defenders and vacate space for City’s offensive No 8s to attack the box,’ explains Thakur.
‘Fluidity among the forwards has been an incessant part of Guardiola’s side this season.
‘Haaland isn’t a creative striker who would drift out wide or drop deep consistently to create opportunities for his team-mates or be heavily involved in the build-up phases of the game.
‘His monopoly is in occupying those central areas. This may negatively impact some of the existing fluidity in the City side.’
The other unknown is how well Haaland will adapt to the relentless physical demand of the Premier League.
He has missed 16 games for Dortmund this season due to muscular problems in the 2021-22 season alone. In the 18 months before that, he missed 12 games
The ability to play often and with high intensity will be crucial within the pressing and counter pressing style adopted in a Guardiola side.
And don’t play his game…
Easier said than done. Haaland can shred defensive lines with his movement and he is devastating in and around the penalty area, but it is hard to nullify both of these contrasting threats.
Most teams may conclude they have to stop Haaland running in behind as a priority, so they will employ a low block to deny him the space to gallop into.
By forcing him to receive the ball with his back to goal, well-drilled Premier League sides can play on a relative weakness.
‘His first touch isn’t as polished and his aerial control in such situations can still improve,’ said Thakur.
In addition, while he links the play well, it is not yet a standout skill for Haaland. Opponents may hope to isolate him with his back to goal and kill the danger before it develops.
The low-block has proved a challenge for Timo Werner to overcome since his £53m move to Chelsea in 2020. At RB Leipzig his game was built on his pace to run beyond the defensive lines, which brought him 34 goals in his final season in the Bundesliga. Werner has come nowhere near that in England.
‘How Haaland copes with those defensive set-ups which do not allow space in behind could be decisive in how impactful he will be in the Premier League,’ said Thakur.
However, a key difference between Haaland and Werner is the ex-Dortmund striker’s ability in the box.
If opponents concede space to City, they will use it to work opportunities to cross and pass from the ‘half-space’ alongside the penalty area to create chances in front of goal, which plays to Haaland’s other great strength. Given an opportunity to shoot, he will. And he rarely misses.
sehjbains
112
Thanks @autty and @afy This analysis is just too deep
dalizzy
51
shoutout to us who didn't read all the article
litdeiopsy
24
Am I the only one that went straight to the comment section 🤣😂😂
yoeaceirsy
21
I don’t think BENZEMA IS A PURE STRIKER.he is a baller like R9 .He performs magic on the pitch like Beckpamp 😎.Scores crucial goods .