Numbers: Leaders Arsenal aiming to grow the gap by beating lowly Wolves

Arsenal went into the November international break with a healthy lead at the top of the Premier League.

But despite winning two of their four games since then, a draw with Chelsea and a defeat to Aston Villa within their past three outings was all it took for the gap to be closed.

That minor wobble has seen Arsenal's lead cut to just two points ahead of Mikel Arteta's team hosting lowly Wolves on Saturday.

Manchester City are hot on the Gunners' heels, while Villa are just three points behind following Emiliano Buendia's last-gasp heroics last weekend.

The fixture list has been kind to Arsenal, though, as Wolves are winless in the league this season and remain rooted to the bottom with just two points.

With Villa and Man City not in action until Sunday, Arteta will view this as the ideal opportunity for his team to get back on track domestically, following a big win over Club Brugge in the Champions League.

Using Opta insights, we look ahead to a clash between top and bottom.

What's expected?

This will be the 42nd Premier League match between the top side and the bottom side, with the league leaders winning 30 of the previous 41 (D7 L4).

Wolves, though, are responsible for two of the bottom side's four victories, beating Manchester United at Molineux in both January 2004 and February 2011.

However, after their 4-1 thrashing at the hands of United on Monday, Wolves are hardly in a position to feel confident of making that three such wins.

Arsenal have scored in each of their last 35 meetings with Wolves in all competitions, since a 1-0 home loss in February 1979.

In English football history, only Wrexham against Darlington have had a longer scoring streak across all competitions (49 between 1929 and 1961).

Wolves have won just one of their last 14 away league games against Arsenal (D4 L9), losing the last four in a row since a 2-1 victory in November 2020.

Arsenal have won their last eight Premier League games against Wolves, their longest winning run against an opponent since a run of 10 against Burnley from 2010 to 2019.

Unsurprisingly, then, Opta's supercomputer makes Arsenal the big favourites, handing them a win probability of 85.4%.

Wolves' chances of victory are ranked at a miniscule 5.3%, while the likelihood of a draw is 9.3%.

Arsenal's big chance to get back on course

Going up against Chelsea and Villa on the road in the space of six days, with a home game against Brentford wedged in between, was always going to be a test of Arsenal's credentials.

They took four points from those three games, but City took nine from their last three league outings, hence the gap between them closing.

However, Arteta will point to his stretched squad, with the absences of defenders Gabriel Magalhaes and William Saliba keenly felt.

And even though they still have the best defence in the Premier League this season with only nine goals conceded, Arsenal have shipped six goals in their last five league games, double the amount they did in their first 10 this term.

Wolves, though, do not possess the attacking quality of a Chelsea or Villa, and if Arsenal are to end their wait for Premier League glory this season, these are the kinds of games they need to be able to win with relative ease.

Arsenal are renowned, of course, for their set-piece proficiency. Indeed, 12 of Arsenal's first 17 Premier League goals this season had come from set-piece situations (eight corners, two penalties, two free-kicks).

However, since Viktor Gyokeres scored a header against Burnley on November 1, the Gunners' last 11 league goals have all come from open play, so it is not just defending set-pieces that Wolves have to worry about.

And Arsenal have been a machine on home turf this season.

They are looking to win five consecutive home Premier League matches for the first time since between January and April 2024.

The Gunners have also won their last seven at the Emirates against teams starting the day in the bottom three of the Premier League, since drawing 3-3 with Southampton in April 2023.

Wolves heading to the second tier

Wolves defender Emmanuel Agbadou told the club's media channels that the players have not given up hope of staying up this season.

But the odds are stacked against Wolves.

Rob Edwards' appointment has not yet had the desired effect of seeing Wolves claim their first league win of the season; in fact, they have lost all four of his games in charge since he took over last month.

Wolves sit eight points behind 19th-place Burnley and some 13 points adrift of safety.

The Opta supercomputer hands them a 99.1% chance of going down.

Only QPR in 2012-13 (16) and Sheffield United in 2020-21 (17) have had longer winless runs from the start of a Premier League campaign than this Wolves team.

Meanwhile, Wolves' two points are a joint-low after 15 games in top-flight history, level with the Blades from 2020-21.

Stretching back to last season, Wolves are winless in 19 Premier League games and have lost their last eight in a row.

Both runs are their joint-longest in their league history, also going 19 without a win between December 1984 and April 1985, and losing eight in a row between December 1981 and February 1982.

So, is there any hope for Wolves?

Well, according to Opta's expected points model, Wolves should actually be on 15 right now, and sit in 18th place. While they have scored just eight goals, that is from 13.2 expected goals (xG). They have shipped 33 goals, despite conceding chances worth only 23.5 xG against.

But those underlying metrics will come as little solace to Wolves fans at this stage, especially given Arsenal are outperforming their 26.2 xG, albeit not by much (28 goals scored).

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Arsenal – Noni Madueke

Madueke has scored four goals in his two Premier League starts against Wolves, including a hat-trick for Chelsea at Molineux last season.

The winger scored twice as Arsenal beat Brugge 3-0 in the Champions League on Wednesday, and that performance, combined with his form against Wolves, should put him in contention to start in this one.

He is the first player in Arsenal's history to score each of his first three goals for the club in the European Cup/Champions League.

However, Madueke is yet to score or provide an assist for the Gunners in the Premier League. Given Wolves' issues, he will be licking his lips should he get the nod.

Wolves – Jean-Ricner Bellegarde

Bellegarde scored against United, drawing Wolves level before the Red Devils cruised to victory in the second half.

It was his first Premier League goal in 27 appearances, since netting against Villa on February 1, while it was Wolves' first goal in 599 minutes of league action.

Only Jorgen Strand Larsen (12) and Marshall Munetsi (12) have had more shots (excluding blocks) in the league for Wolves this season than Bellegarde (10), so the latter is at least offering a threat from midfield.