Opta's simulation predicts Man Utd, Tottenham & Arsenal will be out of UCL

  /  autty

We should now be on the home straight and the finish line should be coming into view.

Instead, we find ourselves in early April and it is not possible to predict when the 2019/20 Premier League campaign will reach its conclusion.

With the brakes firmly on the season for the foreseeable future, data and statistical specialists Opta decided to run a simulator to predict how the rest of the season could pan out.

To get a final league table, Opta had to carry out numerous different tasks to reach a conclusion.

Firstly, they had to make an estimation for the outcome of each and every one of the Premier League's remaining fixtures, which is based on a team's attacking and defensive qualities, which are based on four years of historic restyle, though more weighting is given to more recent fixtures.

The next step is to take into account the quality of the opposition that a team scores or concedes against and rewards them accordingly. To do this, Opta used goal predictions from the possession distribution with the two teams' attacking and defending qualities as inputs.

Finally, they ran the simulation 10,000 times to estimate the chances of each team finishing in each league position in the table.

Their findings, unsurprisingly, suggested that Liverpool, who have won all but two of their league matches this season, would be crowned Premier League champions, securing the title with a record points tally of 101, with their nearest challengers, Manchester City, finishing in second place on 80 points.

The final Premier League table based on Opta's simulation:

1st: Liverpool - 101 pts

2nd: Manchester City - 80 pts

3rd: Leicester City - 67 pts

4th: Chelsea - 63 pts

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5th: Manchester United - 61 pts

6th: Tottenham Hotspur - 58 pts

7th: Wolverhampton Wanderers - 56 pts

8th: Arsenal - 56 pts

9th: Sheffield United - 55 pts

10th: Everton - 50 pts

11th: Burnley - 49 pts

12th: Crystal Palace - 49 pts

13th: Newcastle United - 46 pts

14th: Southampton - 44 pts

15th: West Ham United - 39 pts

16th: Brighton & Hove Albion - 37 pts

17th: Watford - 36 pts

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18th: Bournemouth - 36 pts

19th: Aston Villa - 32 pts

20th: Norwich City - 29 pts

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