Premier League betting: Back fast Brentford start and Leicester to trouble Liverpool with 6/1 double

Jones Knows has an array of best bets to attack across the next set of fixtures with a 6/1 double advised on the Friday night games.

How did we get on last time?

I declared my theory on there being under the market expectation of first-half goals on Boxing Day as an "educated guess" as we entered the unknown of how players and teams would react after the World Cup break. Well, in hindsight, get rid of the educated part. The Premier League began with a bang as the elite players returned in fine nick as games produced plenty of fireworks and goals in the first half of matches. My punt of 11/4 with Sky Bet on there being under a total of 10.5 first-half goals in the 10 Premier League fixtures ended up a laughable one as there were 17.

So, two points went into the bin. We all have to pay a bit of idiot tax from time to time and this was my contribution.

What Boxing Day did show me was that the Premier League has picked up where it left off with teams remaining in a similar mood and performance level to a month or so ago. This should give punters confidence to get stuck in on any potential betting angles. It certainly has for me. Time to get down to business with 4.5 points being laid down.

P+L = +3.5

1pt on Brentford two or more first half shots on target vs West Ham and Leicester to score & have four or more shots on target vs Liverpool (6/1 with Sky Bet - Bet Here!)

I've got confidence in both Brentford and Leicester showing attacking intent on Friday night in their respective away games where their shots on target prices look juicy enough to attack to me.

Brentford's opponents West Ham are becoming a very reliable beast when it comes to slow starts at home and it's time to start profiting from this lack of early urgency from David Moyes' men. In their last seven home games across all competitions, the Hammers have shipped 20 shots on target before the break - working out an average of 2.85 per first half.

On what could turn into a very nervy and potentially fractious Friday night for Moyes and his players in front of a disgruntled crowd against a side that did the double over them last season, I'm all over taking the price with Sky Bet for Brentford to have two or more shots on target in the first half. It's a bet that has landed against the Hammers in their last seven home games.

Double that up with Leicester to threaten at Liverpool, who might be on a run of three straight wins - their best run of the season - but back to their relentless and ruthless best they are most certainly not. This defence remains vulnerable.

In three of the last four seasons where Liverpool posted 92 or more points in the Premier League, they were averaging just 2.8 shots on target on their goal per game. The contrast now is stark. Take the last last nine games for example, and they are averaging 5.67 shots on target conceded per match.

And Leicester arrive as the top Premier League scorers away from home with 16 goals. That statistic is no fluke looking at the underlying numbers which shows Brendan Rodgers' side have had the third most shots on target on the road (41) and have posted the highest expected goals tally (12.3) of all Premier League teams away from home.

The bets that stick out to me are both teams to score as Liverpool have kept just four clean sheets in their last 19 games and Leicester's shots-on-target prospects where four or more are priced up very appealingly considering Liverpool's recent shots on target faced line.

1pt on Bukayo Saka to score first in Brighton vs Arsenal (8/1 with Sky Bet - Bet Here!)

Bukayo Saka to score first at 8/1 is a must back considering his performance level against West Ham on Boxing Day. I think we might be dealing with one of the best players in world football on current form.

Saka has taken his game to the next level in the last 12 months, as seen in the World Cup where he was England's most potent attacker. He comes into this game in the form of his life, scoring four goals in his last five appearances for club and country. A player of his intelligence, quality, goalscoring ability and the fact he's the Arsenal penalty taker equates to that 8/1 looking distinctly large.

2pts on Willy Boly or Joe Worrall to have one or more shots vs Chelsea and Aston Villa to win or draw vs Tottenham (3/1 with Sky Bet - Bet Here!)

Nice feel to this New Year's Day double. I'm a huge believer in Antonio Conte's methods but his contract situation with the Tottenham board added to his team's woeful intensity early on in games is going to bite them at some point. And when assessing the match prices here, the market is too skewed in favour of Spurs, who are so skinny at 8/13 with Sky Bet to beat an improving Aston Villa.

And, I thought Chelsea looked shaky when defending their box under pressure from corners and free-kicks against Bournemouth with the Cherries creating a healthy 0.29 worth of expected goals via set pieces with Lloyd Kelly and Dominic Solanke both missing the target from close range. Since Graham Potter took charge, Chelsea's overall defensive metrics from set pieces are nosediving. They have shipped 33 shots from such scenarios to an expected goals backdrop of 3.18 - only six teams have a worse output from the day Potter took over.

With that in mind, it's certainly worth looking at the Forest centre-backs to threaten.

Since Joe Worrall and Wily Boly have been paired together four games ago, they have had eight shots between them and that's not including Boly's disallowed goal against Manchester United.

Worrall is 13/8 with Sky Bet and Boly is 2/1 to have at least one shot in the player shots market. Both look big.

0.5pts on Brentford two or more first half shots on target vs West Ham, Leicester to score and have four shots on target v Liverpool, Boly or Worrall to have one shot vs Chelsea and Aston Villa to win or draw vs Tottenham (28/1 with Sky Bet - Bet Here!)

Why not combine all four best bets for a jackpot play? We must dream.