Our tipster Jones Knows thinks there will be a goals, cards and corner frenzy across the festive period and wants to back this 22/1 shot.
How did our bets do last week?
Martin Atkinson. Why do you do the things you do?
Our 5/1 double last Sunday of Wolves avoiding defeat at Chelsea (won) and under 30 booking points in Newcastle vs Manchester City (lost) went down the pan in strange fashion. For 82 minutes of the clash at St James' Park, the game played out as expected with a low probability of cards. There were none shown in that period. However, Atkinson had an eight-minute spell midway through the first half where he brandished three yellow cards. The match ended on 30 booking points meaning our bet was a loser.
Bah humbug.
I'm hoping to revive some Christmas cheer this week. I've always subconsciously associated Boxing Day football matches with entertainment. I'm not entirely sure where that theory has generated from as for most of my adult life the day has been a working one for me. While others tuck into cold meats, I'm usually setting up camp in cold press boxes around the country. My brain seems to tell me that festive cheer in the stands at what is usually a feel-good time of the year does help a football match spark into life.
So, I asked our friends at Opta to run the numbers for the last five seasons on Boxing Day in the Premier League to see whether there was any basis to my theory of above-average entertainment. The results were in fact promising.
From 40 games played on Boxing Day in the last five seasons, the average goals per game rises from the norm of 2.7 goals to 2.9, while there is perhaps more fire in the bellies of the players when assessing the amount of yellow cards shown. That rises from the overall average of 3.2 cards per game to 3.7 per game on Boxing Day. Maybe there is something in the turkey that gets players hot under the collar or perhaps those one away from a booking are keen for some time off over a hectic period. Whatever way you look at it, those stats do certainly encourage those looking to back cards and goals over this busy period of football.
With that in mind, I've taken a bit of a swing and two of the Premier League fixtures producing goals, cards and corners, are all wrapped up in a tasty 22/1 shot with Sky Bet.
P+L = +36
Over 2.5 goals, 10+ corners & 40+ booking points in Man City vs Leicester & Newcastle vs Man Utd (22/1 with Sky Bet - Bet Here!)
Leicester are usually reliable at having a go when travelling to the big boys and I think they can play their part in a high-scoring, cards-fest at the Etihad Stadium in the Boxing Day atmosphere.
This fixture goes against the grain usually for Manchester City and Leicester fixtures where cards are concerned. Both clubs rank low for yellow cards over the past five seasons but when they face off at the Etihad Stadium, their styles turn the game into a card frenzy. Since the start of the 2016-17 season, Man City vs Leicester at the Etihad has produced an average of 4.8 cards per 90 minutes. Only City vs Liverpool has a higher average when it comes to games City have played at home (three meetings minimum).
When you add in referee Chris Kavanagh's liking for a card, this game should see plenty of action in that regard. In 12 games this season across the Premier League and Sky Bet Championship, referee Kavanagh is averaging 4.3 yellow cards per 90 minutes. Goals, cards and corners should be on the menu.
When that hopefully lands, it's then onto Monday Night Football.
Newcastle's horrific defence but dangerous attack should make this an open, fun-filled game played in a feisty atmosphere at St James' Park, which has been in fine fettle despite results not going their way still. Eddie Howe's men have conceded 41 Premier League goals - only three teams in Premier League history have conceded more after 18 games. In his seven games so far, Howe has made very little impact on Newcastle's defensive shortcomings. That is likely to continue in this game and for the remainder of the season with this squad.
Since Howe arrived, the Toon's more adventurous attacking approach can be seen through the amount of corners being won. In matches against Brentford (8), Burnley (10) and Leicester (6) they have soared past their allocated lines set by Sky Bet and even to win three against Manchester City was another sign of good intent.
Early signs are from Ralf Rangnick's United is that they will offer space down the flanks to opposition teams and that is seen by their corner conceded count against Norwich (9) and Crystal Palace (6). Yes, it's a small sample size but I'm happy to back that theory while prices remain in our favour. This game should surpass the 10 corners line and hopefully help the 22/1 shot over the line.
Juhbdeilz
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