Our top tipster Lewis Jones, aka Jones Knows, provides his analysis and betting insight ahead of the Monday Night Football between Leeds and Newcastle.
Leeds United vs Newcastle United, Monday 8pm, live on Sky Sports
Newcastle's draw with Bournemouth was a little reminder that this rebuild under Matthias Jaissle could be quite volatile at times. The Toon have scored six goals from an expected goals return of just three and have faced the most shots of any team this season, hinting at an overperformance.
Leeds are a reliable team to bet on. You know exactly what you're going to get. Usually that means Daniel Farke's team avoiding defeat which is what they've done in 11 of their last 12 Premier League games. They defend with great organisation and attack with authority. They are 11/8 with Sky Bet to win.
I do like that home win but I also like the prospects of Matias Fernandez-Pardo drawing cards for Newcastle. He could be in line for his first start having come off the bench in the last two games in all competitions. The £51m signing was Lille's main man in Ligue 1 last season and drew 15 cards in just over 3,000 minutes of action - an impressive strike rate.
This leaves Ethan Ampadu vulnerable to card at 3/1 with Sky Bet based on his record of being booked 10 times last season.
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I sure hope you are wrong. I’ll take a 2-0 Newcastle win.