Premier League predictions: Flat-track bullies Man Utd to crumble at Newcastle

Our tipster Jones Knows takes aim at the Premier League, sprinkling his analysis over the weekend card and is all over Newcastle to beat Man Utd.

Arsenal vs Wolves, Saturday 3pm - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

In the words of Gary Neville, we are now approaching "the winter slog - where you get rid of the pretenders".

This is the period where Arsenal may just win the Premier League title for which they can be backed at 100/30 with Sky Bet. Mikel Arteta has developed a team built for the winter slog.

Full of grit. Full of defensive solidity.

And they just could be about to put a lengthy unbeaten run together. Wolves arrive with Arsenal unbeaten in their last 10 home games, winning eight and scoring 16 goals in their last four.

Suspensions to key midfield duo Joao Gomes and Mario Lemina, along with the continued absence of Pedro Neto should make this a potentially comfortable afternoon for Arsenal but we need to get creative to boost their win price of 1/4 with Sky Bet. There is a way to get us to near Evens by adding Wolves to be awarded more booking points than Arsenal through the Bet Builder.

Wolves have committed the most fouls (179) and racked up the second most yellow cards (40) this season while Arsenal's opponents have been shown more cards in all the last seven fixtures. Despite being a physical outfit and difficult to beat, the Gunners have been shown the fewest yellow cards this season (17). They are the gentle giants.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0

Brentford vs Luton, Saturday 3pm - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

With Brentford possessing the height and defensive metrics to negate Luton's main weapon from set pieces, it's hard to see how Rob Edwards' team can cause too many problems for the Bees. A home win is strongly fancied - but at 4/9 with Sky Bet it's a price I can let win without backing.

My eyes have been drawn to Luton skipper Tom Lockyer in the fouls committed and yellow card markets. Brentford's spunky attacking duo of Bryan Mbeumo and Yoane Wissa are real livewires, who between them since Ivan Toney's suspension are drawing a combined ratio of 3.2 fouls per 90 minutes and have drawn eight yellow cards for fouls in those 16 Premier League matches.

Lockyer does lack for pace and has been carded four times already this campaign, whilst committing nine fouls in his last seven appearances, where he made two or more fouls against Palace, Forest and Tottenham. Combing him to be carded (100/30 with Sky Bet) and to make two or more fouls (3/1 with Sky Bet) using the Bet Builder equates to a chunky 8/1 shot to attack.

SCORE PREDICTION: 3-0

Burnley vs Sheffield United, Saturday 3pm

Christmas trees are going up and still no Premier League manager has been sacked. Five managers had already departed at this stage last season so it's an unusual situation. You can still get 200/1 with Sky Bet on no Premier League manager being sacked this season.

There is a feeling that we might be at breaking point though with one of these two teams, whose managers are doing a fine job of eroding their impressive work of last season.

Sheffield United's shoots of recovery have quickly been trampled back down into the dirt with a woeful display at home to Bournemouth and Paul Heckingbottom must be feeling the heat, especially with someone of the stature of Chris Wilder waiting in the shadows. Burnley are a feeble side themselves, lacking any sort of leadership in key areas of the pitch but their process is on the up with a clear pattern of play to get their creative front three into dangerous areas. That should be enough to nick this. The 2/1 with Sky Bet for them to win to nil makes sense.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-0

Nottingham Forest vs Everton, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

We've got to the point with Premier League matches now where if over 2.5 goals are trading on the cusp of Evens it must be considered as a bet. The goals continue to flow at an astonishing rate.

With 130 games played this season, the total per game average stands at 3.11. If this ratio remains consistent to that level for the remainder, it's going to soar past the previous Premier League record of goals per game average which was recorded last season at 2.85. There are no signs of that rate slowing either as 15 of the last 20 matches have seen over 2.5 goals land which has taken the overall strike rate to 64 per cent for matches this season producing three or more goals. Again, that is way up on the usual Premier League average which sits at 52 per cent.

This trend does make the 5/4 with Sky Bet on both teams scoring and over 2.5 goals one of the best punts of the weekend.

Everton, who need to be picking up maximum points from fixtures of this nature now following their deduction, have a 68 per cent strike rate of their games in all competitions breaching the over 2.5 line. Meanwhile, Forest's games have seen a huge spike in goals over the last few weeks with 3.8 goals seen per 90 when assessing their last five fixtures. Goals look on the menu in a game that finished 2-2 last season.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2 | JONES KNOWS BEST BET: Both teams to score & over 2.5 goals (5/4 with Sky Bet - Bet Here!)

Newcastle vs Manchester United, Saturday 8pm - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

As someone who puts lots of emphasis on the underlying numbers when making assessments of teams with the belief that expected goals data, used correctly, can still identify big value plays in the market despite it being widely used now, I simply must back Newcastle at Evens with Sky Bet here.

Manchester United are the form team in the Premier League with five wins in six games but there's evidence to prove that this resurgence is based on fragile foundations, according to the data.

A collapse in Premier League form is coming if performance levels remain the same.

As my colleague Adam Smith explains in this fantastic data piece analysing United's decline, their underlying numbers firmly present them as a mid-table ranked team in the Premier League. United lost the 'expected goals battle' in wins over Everton, Fulham and Sheffield United with an aggregate total scoreline reading 4.81-3.98 in favour of the three relegation contenders. Yet, somehow, the market has them priced up with a 27 per cent chance (14/5 with Sky Bet) of grabbing three points at Newcastle - a team that have just dismantled Chelsea and beaten Arsenal at St James' Park meaning it's now just three loses in their last 27 home matches. They've shipped just four goals at home this season, too.

More so, United have failed to win away from home against a top-nine ranked side under Ten Hag in 10 attempts, to an aggregate score of 34-9. To my figures and ratings, Newcastle should be rated closer to 4/7 with Sky Bet to win this match, yet we can get Evens. Christmas may have come early.

SCORE PREDICTION: 3-1 | JONES KNOWS' BEST BET: Newcastle to win (Evens with Sky Bet - Bet Here!)

Bournemouth vs Aston Villa, Sunday 2pm

Bournemouth are red hot under Andoni Iraola - and there is a huge amount of juice everywhere you look regarding their prospects in this encounter. It's easy to make a case for the 5/4 with Sky Bet on them scoring two or more goals and the 5/6 on offer for them to avoid defeat against a very skinny Aston Villa, who haven't convinced me at all on the road this season.

Iraola has found the key to his unique hybrid press system in that Ryan Christie is being utilised perfectly in the centre of the pitch which is setting the platform for everything else to click around him. Christie has made four tackles in both the impressive victories over Newcastle and Sheffield United and although my enthusiasm for a tackles bet is usually low, I'm happy to row in on Christie's lines which look too big to me based on this new role.

You can get 7/1 with Sky Bet on him repeating the feat and registering four or more tackles while those that like to play a little bit more reserved should also note the 5/6 for two or more and 5/2 for three or more. Christie can be at the forefront of another sprightly Cherries showing that should continue their surge up the table.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1

Chelsea vs Brighton, Sunday 2pm

It would be very '2023 Chelsea' if a depleted Brighton, despite selling the Londoners £200m worth of players and having their manager poached, could win at Stamford Bridge.

However, Roberto De Zerbi's team are far from their usual barnstorming selves such is their injury-list and intense Europa League encounters. The suspension of Lewis Dunk is a massive issue, too, as Brighton have failed to win the last five games without him, including the recent 1-1 draw with Sheffield United.

A quick scan of their key metrics over the past five games showcases a struggle compared to the usual electric figure posted by a De Zerbi team. In that period the non-penalty expected goals data reads Brighton 5.67 vs 6.70 to the opposition and the shot count also paints a negative figure of 46 shots vs 76 shots faced. The eye-test backed that up on Thursday as they were very fortunate to leave AEK Athens with maximum points considering the chances created by the Greek side. They don't look like a De Zerbi side at the moment.

All this evidence makes this a very winnable fixture for Chelsea but the 8/11 with Sky Bet isn't a price I'm willing to play at considering the hot and cold nature of the Blues at home. I'd much rather back a bigger price for Chelsea to win by three or more goals at 5/1.

When Brighton get beat, it can escalate quickly into a thrashing as shown in heavy defeats to Everton and Aston Villa under De Zerbi. And in their last seven Premier League defeats, the aggregate score has been a whopping 25-7 in favour of the opposition.

SCORE PREDICTION: 4-1 | JONES KNOWS' BEST BET: Chelsea -2 handicap (5/1 with Sky Bet - Bet Here!)

Liverpool vs Fulham, Sunday 2pm

This might be a case of missing the wedding and attending the funeral but after raving about Trent Alexander-Arnold's goalscoring and shots prices for most of this season it would be rude not to bring to attention his prices this weekend with his confidence likely flowing after his first goal of the season at Manchester City.

It's time Alexander-Arnold upped his strike-rate in front of goal. Since undergoing the tactical tweak to play him more centrally, the England man has only scored twice in 22 appearances - a disappointing return of a player with his undoubted quality playing in such an attack-minded side. However, that goal at the Etihad should spark his already sparking shot numbers - he's had 10 in his last five games. So, the 4/6 with Sky Bet for him to register two or more shots looks a very solid play and the 13/2 anytime price is also worth a look in what looks a routine home win for Jurgen Klopp's men.

SCORE PREDICTION: 3-0

West Ham vs Crystal Palace, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

West Ham have won five of their last six games, duly cantered into the knockout stages of the Europa League, have a Carabao Cup quarter-final to look forward to and are just eight points off top four. So, why am I not remotely interested in the Evens with Sky Bet for them to beat a very ordinary and ambitionless Crystal Palace, who are missing their main man in Eberechi Eze.

This just reeks of a slow burner.

Palace are notorious for allowing games to drift and play risk-free football in the first halves with 10 of their 13 games seeing them fail to score this season. It's resulted in eight of those 13 matches going in at the break 0-0 and the 15/8 with Sky Bet on offer here for such a scenario does look like an edge to exploit.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1

Manchester City vs Tottenham, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

Tottenham are heavily odds-on to lose a fourth straight Premier League match for the first time in 19 years. Surely the manager must go. Bring Jose back. Or Antonio. This would never happen on their watch. Who wants fun anyway.

Joshing aside, Spurs could be gobbled up here by a damaging scoreline but from a punting perspective I'm all for following them to contribute towards what's likely to be a very high goals total. Tottenham to score two or more at 11/4 with Sky Bet stands out.

As Chelsea showed in the 4-4 draw with City, if you can take the game into chaotic mode then City can be vulnerable through their midfield where Rodri is being overworked. Spurs thrive on chaos and they top the charts in the Premier League for shots from open play and fast breaks this season (164).

Dejan Kulusevski also remains overpriced to score at 13/2. He has scored in both of Spurs' last trips to the Etihad Stadium and is getting into some dangerous scoring positions of late, notching against Chelsea and hitting the post in the 2-1 defeat to Aston Villa.

His positional play really caught my eye last Sunday as it seems Ange Postecoglou is negating the loss of creativity from James Maddison's injury by playing a front four with Kulusevski still playing off the left but with more instruction to play as a second striker. If this trend continues, then a player of his intelligence and skill is going to see a huge increase in his strike rate in front of goal - hopefully starting on Sunday.

SCORE PREDICTION: 4-2 | JONES KNOWS BEST BET: Dejan Kulusevski to score (13/2 with Sky Bet - Bet Here!)