Our tipster Jones Knows provides his betting insight and analysis as Liverpool travel to Aston Villa on Monday Night Football.
Aston Villa vs Liverpool, Monday 8pm, live on Sky Sports
Liverpool look a great bet here.
Villa will be drained from their trip to Greece on Thursday where they were bitterly disappointing, and Unai Emery has really struggled to contain Jurgen Klopp's teams in the past. Since beating Liverpool in the 2016 Europa League Final with Sevilla, Emery is winless in nine matches vs Klopp, conceding three or more goals in six of those nine matches, including in the reverse fixture this season that Liverpool won 3-0, and the game at Villa Park last season that ended 3-1 to Liverpool.
Villa have spent 153 nights in the Premier League top four this season so probably deserve their Champions League qualification on that basis, but they are limping over the line. They are becoming a very easy team to score against.
Over the last 15 Premier League games, they've averaged a per-90 expected goals against figure of 1.91 which is the fourth worst in the Premier League - even worse than Sheffield United. When assessing their big chance conceded data it gets worse - in the last 15 games only Luton have offered up more "big chances" as defined by Opta - that's 42 in 15 games to an average of 2.8 per game.
And Liverpool are the kings of creating those big chances - no team have created more this season than their 95.
Backing Liverpool to win and over 2.5 goals at 11/10 with Sky Bet looks a winner in waiting.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-3
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