Premier League relegation predictions – according to the data

Things are getting serious at the bottom of the Premier League table.

Just eight points separate Southampton (20th) and Crystal Palace (12th), with clubs so desperate to avoid the drop that six of the bottom ten sides have changed managers this season — and Southampton doing so twice.

The financial incentive to stay in the division is huge, but with 15 games to go, who looks most likely to be playing Championship football next season?

Let's turn to FiveThirtyEight's predicted league table. Its model forecasts the outcome of each of the remaining fixtures based on the strength of the respective teams. From those predictions, FiveThirtyEight runs simulations to play out the remaining league season 20,000 times to calculate an overall predicted final table.

Southampton and Bournemouth fans, look away now. Both clubs have a greater than 60 per cent chance of relegation according to FiveThirtyEight's model, with Everton the side most likely to join them by after missing out on safety by a single point (36 points).

A look at the league-wide expected goal difference (xGD) per 90 minutes — which considers the quality of chances each team creates and concedes — tells an interesting story.

West Ham United could feel the most hard done by, as they have generated as many opportunities as they have conceded (0 xGD), despite currently being in the relegation zone.

Meanwhile, Crystal Palace might feel lucky to have picked up as many points as they have, given their underlying numbers at both ends of the pitch compared with their peers.

With this zoomed-out view, there may be some misleading output at the season level. A single, anomalous game could skew the average xGD, or a certain side's output might be influenced by their game state — we're looking at you, Leeds United.

It is also very tricky to quantify momentum within a club, with managerial changes meaning some clubs' outlooks might appear rosier than others in the final third of the season.

Let's take a closer look at those who are most threatened by relegation to see if we can spot any patterns. We'll run through what we can learn from each piece of data but if there are any unfamiliar stats that need a bit more explaining, check out our handy guide.

Southampton

Current position: 20th

Predicted position: 20th

Though Southampton did manage a 1-0 win over Chelsea last weekend, it was in the category of “smash and grab” when considering the chances generated by both sides — and it was still not enough to lift them off the foot of the table.

After a move for Jesse Marsch failed to materialise, Southampton remain without a permanent manager following one of the shortest reigns in Premier League history from Nathan Jones.

Assistant Ruben Selles has held the fort well in the short term, but the main task for any Southampton coach is to improve their attack. An average of 0.8 goals scored per 90 is relegation form, but a more alarming statistic is the average quality of the shots they are taking.

An xG per shot of 0.09 is the lowest in the division, and highlights how tough the Saints are finding it to work the ball into good areas. While he has bailed them out on more than one occasion this season, James Ward-Prowse won't bang in the free kicks from 25 yards every game.

The positive news for Southampton is that their defensive numbers have improved as the season has progressed, but their attack has flatlined — rarely deviating from an xG of one per game.

Doomed is a strong word, but Southampton could do with more results like Saturday's victory at Stamford Bridge. They have some very tricky fixtures to negotiate in the coming weeks, and the hope will be that they don't become cut adrift before it's too late.

Remaining league fixtures

Leeds (A), Leicester (H), Man United (A), Brentford (H), Tottenham (H), West Ham (A), Man City (H), Crystal Palace (H), Arsenal (A), Bournemouth (H), Newcastle (A), Nottingham Forest (A), Fulham (H), Brighton (A), Liverpool (H)

Bournemouth

Current position: 17th

Predicted position: 19th

Realistically, Bournemouth know their place within the Premier League hierarchy. They average the lowest possession, take the fewest shots per 90, and have the lowest pressing intensity in the division.

However, you can be sure they will not go down without a fight. Bournemouth managed a six-game unbeaten run after the dismissal of Scott Parker last August, but after Gary O'Neil's permanent appointment as head coach in November, they went on a nine-game winless run in all competitions.

Obviously, Bournemouth need to improve in front of goal. With Dominic Solanke coming off the back of a 29-goal season in the Championship, a return of just three goals this campaign is a huge disappointment.

The trajectory of Bournemouth's expected goals across a 10-game rolling average gives reason to be positive if they can keep it going. With Solanke returning from his recent injury struggles, now would be a good time for him to hit some form and convert those chances.

The season has had more troughs than peaks, but just one loss in four Premier League games shows they are still finding ways to pick up points. After a tough run before March's international break, Bournemouth have some favourable fixtures against fellow bottom-half sides.

Do not write them off yet.

Remaining fixtures

Man City (H), Arsenal (A), Liverpool (H), Aston Villa (A), Fulham (H), Brighton (H), Leicester (A), Tottenham (A), West Ham (H), Southampton (A), Leeds United (H), Chelsea (H), Crystal Palace (A), Man United (H), Everton (A)

Everton

Current position: 16th

Predicted position: 18th

The atmosphere at Everton looks a lot more positive than one month ago, having picked up six points from a possible nine under new manager Sean Dyche.

Aside from a brief attacking uptick at the end of last season, Frank Lampard did little to change Everton's fortunes at either end of the pitch as they continued to concede opportunities at a higher rate than they generated across his 12 months at Goodison Park.

It is too early to predict how well Dyche will do in the remainder of the season, but one stylistic factor he has inherited — which aligns with his principles from his time at Burnley — is a side that is willing to play it long and progress the ball upfield quickly.

Making this an effective form of attack requires runners off the ball and a solid defensive foundation — two things Everton haven't frequently shown this season.

Everton do often play long passes but their territorial dominance — shown by their field tilt — is one of the lowest in the league, which suggests that they are looking to get it forward but the ball is not sticking.

An injury-prone Dominic Calvert-Lewin has not helped remedy that issue.

If Dyche can get those long balls to stick, Everton will improve their shot count, which is the second-worst in the division. Maximising set pieces — as Dyche has already proven in Everton's 1-0 win against Arsenal — will also go a long way to helping those offensive numbers.

Though FiveThirtyEight's model has predicted Everton are the third-most likely team to be relegated, the tide can turn very quickly with a few good results, particularly under a new manager looking to implement his style of play.

Remaining fixtures

Aston Villa (H), Arsenal (A), Nottingham Forest (A), Brentford (H), Chelsea (A), Tottenham (H), Man United (A), Fulham (H), Crystal Palace (A), Newcastle (H), Leicester (A), Brighton (A), Man City (H), Wolves (A), Bournemouth (H)

Leeds United

Current position: 19th

Predicted position: 17th

Former Watford boss Javi Gracia has been confirmed as Leeds' new head coach this week. They are in the relegation zone, but it feels as though their issues are actually the most obvious to fix.

Leeds' game has been built on intensity, high pressing, and maximising transitional moments with vertical play — as can be seen by their 'passes per defensive action' (PPDA) and 'attack speed' (how fast they progress the ball up the pitch) in particular.

However, what was deemed to be their strength ended up being their weakness under Marsch, as his side became dangerously poor in defending those transitional moments.

As you can see below, there was an encouraging uptick in Leeds's attack at the start of the season — culminating in just two losses in their first seven Premier League games — but their defence has simply been too porous. No team has spent less time in a winning game state than Leeds this season — just 11 per cent of their total minutes in the Premier League.

Gracia has been known to implement a style associated with the Red Bull stable 4-2-2-2 while managing Watford — although under a different guise — but Leeds will benefit from playing with greater control in and out of possession.

Gracia begins his Leeds reign with a huge game at home to Southampton this weekend. If he can start with a bang, Leeds might gain some momentum at just the right time.

Remaining fixtures

Southampton (H), Chelsea (A), Brighton (H), Wolves (A), Arsenal (A), Crystal Palace (H), Liverpool (H), Fulham (A), Leicester (H), Bournemouth (A), Manchester City (A), Newcastle (H), West Ham (A), Tottenham (H)

Nottingham Forest

Current position: 13th

Predicted position: 16th

Forest made a dismal start to life in the Premier League, with seven losses in their first 10 games after a summer of upheaval for their squad.

However, things now look far more optimistic, with a coherent plan under Steve Cooper. The players have developed an understanding, and they have had some brilliant sequences of play in recent weeks, exemplified by their impressive goal against Manchester City last weekend.

They are creating more and conceding fewer chances each week, losing only once in their last seven league games.

However, Forest's form is notably contrasting when playing away from home.

Despite collecting 19 points at the City Ground — the joint-ninth-best home record in the league — they have picked up just six points away. A look at the underlying numbers suggests that the process has been largely the same home and away, but Forest's three goals scored from an xG of 9.8 points to some poor finishing and a bit of bad luck on their travels.

Defensive injury issues have not helped them, but FiveThirtyEight's model tips Forest to avoid the drop — just.

Remaining fixtures

West Ham (A), Everton (H), Tottenham (A), Newcastle (H), Wolves (H), Leeds (A), Aston Villa (A), Man United (H), Liverpool (A), Brighton (H), Brentford (A), Southampton (H), Chelsea (A), Arsenal (H), Crystal Palace (A)

Current position: 15th

Predicted position: 15th

There have been positive signs since Julen Lopetegui arrived at Molineux, but Wolves' main issue is clear — no team has scored fewer than their 17 goals.

Fortunately for Lopetegui, there are plenty of teams with a worse defensive record, as Wolves' 13.6 shots conceded per 90 is good enough for the 12th best in the league. However, there are some obvious clues why they're not able to find the back of the net.

First, only Forest have a higher share of their shots from outside the box than Wolves' 39 per cent, with midfielder Ruben Neves among the most likely to try his luck from range.

This goes hand in hand with Wolves' average shot quality, with an xG per shot of 0.09 being the second-worst in the league — reinforcing that they are not working the ball into good areas to score.

They're not creating much in the way of chances, and the quality of their chances conceded has been steadily increasing in recent weeks.

Are there reasons to be concerned? Probably not with the calibre of manager they have in the dugout. Wolves have some favourable fixtures coming up in the next few weeks that could see them pull away from the relegation zone — if their strikers start to fire.

Remaining fixtures

Fulham (A), Liverpool (A), Tottenham (H), Newcastle (A), Leeds (H), Nottingham Forest (A), Chelsea (H), Brentford (H), Leicester (A), Crystal Palace (H), Brighton (A), Aston Villa (H), Man United (A), Everton (H), Arsenal (A)

West Ham United

Current position: 18th

Predicted position: 14th

There is an obvious pattern among all clubs fighting relegation — they don't score enough goals and their away form is poor.

Both of those factors apply to West Ham United, as their 19 goals scored is the third-worst in the league with only six points picked up on their travels all season — the joint-worst away record.

To West Ham's credit, their underlying numbers suggest they can feel aggrieved to have not scored more with the opportunities they have created. A non-penalty return of 15 goals from 24.9 xG is the biggest underperformance of any side in the league, as they have lacked a clinical goalscorer this season.

On average, West Ham are creating as many chances as they are conceding in the Premier League, with a defensive record that is not indicative of a side battling relegation.

However, the performances have been largely disappointing, not helped by a lack of cohesion between West Ham's key players. The reality is David Moyes' side sit in the relegation zone, and do not have time to feel sorry for themselves.

Moyes is set to stay in charge for their must-win clash with Forest, and their remaining fixture list looks more positive than some of their relegation peers.

FiveThirtyEight's model has them to stay clear of relegation, and you can see why.

Remaining fixtures

Nottingham Forest (H), Brighton (A), Aston Villa (H), Man City (A), Southampton (H), Newcastle (H), Fulham (A), Arsenal (H), Bournemouth (A), Liverpool (H), Crystal Palace (A), Man United (H), Brentford (A), Leeds (H), Leicester (A)

Leicester City

Current position: 14th

Predicted position: 13th

Unlike many other sides in the bottom half, Leicester have enough attacking potency to create chances each game. Harvey Barnes' pace and power, new signing Tete's quick feet, and James Maddison's eye for a pass give Leicester enough firepower — as shown by their 1.3 xG per 90, which is better than most of the other sides in the bottom half.

Their issue is that they are leaky at the back. Leicester's 1.8 xG conceded per 90 is the worst in the league, with only Bournemouth conceding more than their 41 goals in the Premier League this season.

Across a 10-game rolling average, Leicester are yet to consistently create better opportunities than they concede this season, which shows that their underlying numbers do reflect their league position.

After recruiting well in the January transfer window, you would still put Leicester in the category of “they'll be fine”. Brendan Rodgers should expect a double-figure points return from their upcoming string of fixtures against Southampton, Chelsea, Brentford, Crystal Palace and Bournemouth, but nothing is guaranteed.

FiveThirtyEight's model gives them just an eight per cent chance of going down — but Leicester must be wary not to sleepwalk through the final third of the season.

Remaining league fixtures

Arsenal (H), Southampton (A), Chelsea (H), Brentford (A), Crystal Palace (A), Aston Villa (H), Bournemouth (H), Man City (A), Wolves (H), Leeds (A), Everton (H), Fulham (A), Liverpool (H), Newcastle (A), West Ham (H)

Crystal Palace

Current position: 12th

Predicted position: 12th

Palace look like they should have more than enough to avoid getting dragged into the relegation places, but they have not pulled away quite enough yet.

Patrick Vieira will be disappointed with his side's ability to see out games — no team has conceded more result-altering goals in the 90th minute or later than Palace since the start of last season.

In truth, Palace's vital signs do belong to a bottom-half team. Their defensive performances have improved throughout the season, but their attack continues to be blunt. Only Bournemouth average lower than Palace's 0.9 xG per 90.

Leaning on Wilfried Zaha, Michael Olise and Eberechi Eze for creativity is one thing, but Palace are also reliant on the trio for goal output from midfield and wide areas. Odsonne Edouard is the only other Palace player to score more than one Premier League goal this season.

The positive news is that their remaining fixtures are more favourable than their bottom-half opponents.

In fact, using FiveThirtyEight's SPI ratings — which essentially provide a number for each team's overall strength — Palace have the fourth-easiest run-in among all Premier League teams, which should give them confidence.

Remaining fixtures

Liverpool (H), Aston Villa (A), Man City (H), Brighton (A), Arsenal (A), Leicester (H), Leeds (A), Southampton (A), Everton (H), Wolves (A), West Ham (H), Tottenham (A), Bournemouth (H), Fulham (A), Nottingham Forest (H)