Southgate is concerned about the supply line of English talent – should he be?

“The numbers are the numbers. They're not going up.”

Gareth Southgate did not cut a positive figure when discussing England's talent pool during last week's press conference.

As reported by The Athletic's David Ornstein, Southgate has met new sports minister Lucy Frazer to discuss the issue of a lack of homegrown talent in the Premier League — declaring that the share of league minutes played by English players is on the decline.

“It has been around 32 per cent but that's down from 35 per cent when I took over (in 2016) and 38 per cent in the years before, so the graph is clear — there's no argument about that.”

Statistics can be used to corroborate an argument, but they also come with a duty of care.

Southgate is correct insofar as the numbers he referenced are not going up, but the picture is a little more nuanced — quite frankly, it's confusing.

The wider trends do not provide significant evidence to suggest the share of English players in the Premier League is declining at a notable rate compared with previous years. Yes, it's true this share has dramatically decreased since the inaugural Premier League season in 1992-93, but does Southgate's grievance hold much weight at the moment?

From the 2002-03 season onwards, the percentage of minutes played by English players has hovered between 29 per cent and 39 per cent and rarely deviated by more than five percentage points year-on-year.

So, why raise the issue now? Well, Southgate's comments come at a time when England are arguably going through their most consistent period on the international stage, reaching a quarter-final, a final and a semi-final in their last three major tournaments.

We could make the facetious argument that England had an extremely high ratio of home-grown English players in the top division in the 1970s, yet still failed to qualify for two consecutive World Cups (in 1974 and 1978). However, the expectations across the whole England setup have understandably increased in the past decade.

From Southgate's role as the FA's head of elite development in 2011 to his time as England Under-21 manager, through to his spell as senior manager, England have enjoyed an unprecedented amount of youth success — winning the Under-20 World Cup in 2017, the Under-17 World Cup in 2017, and the Under-19 European Championship in 2017 and 2022.

The bar is set higher and Southgate doesn't want to see it drop.

“We are shorter than the other big nations on depth of selection. In certain positions, those numbers are deteriorating rapidly in the Premier League. That's not a concern for me in the next 18 months but in the next four or five years' time we have to be really careful.”

As The Athletic have recently analysed, the Premier League's share of domestic talent is notably lower than the rest of Europe's top five leagues, with none of the remaining divisions having less than 40 per cent of native players within the whole cohort.

The nation that most closely echoes Southgate's sentiments is Italy, with national manager Roberto Mancini declaring the low share of Italian players in Serie A as a “serious problem”.

For all national managers, the blend of domestic players and foreign imports needs to be finely balanced to promote the best talent. Restricting the number of non-native players could serve to dilute the overall quality of the league, thus providing a poorer competitive experience — particularly those who are making their way into the first team.

Opportunities for young English players must be nurtured and while there is concern that such opportunities are increasingly limited by the influx of foreign imports, the trend until last season suggests the Premier League is only behind France's Ligue 1 (albeit a fair distance) when considering the share of minutes that under-21 national players have played in Europe's top five leagues.

The influence of Brexit on transfers — where players need sufficient governing body endorsement (GBE) points to obtain a work permit to play in the Premier League — was intended to give greater opportunity to English talent.

However, a report from football analytics specialists Analytics FC suggests these regulations have not had a significant impact when it comes to domestic playing time.

That may change in the coming years, where restrictions on signing foreign players under the age of 18 are likely to provide a greater pathway for English talent. Nevertheless, it is important to consider the balance of player quality versus player quantity when assessing the competitiveness of talent towards the national team.

For example, looking at the so-called 'big six' clubs — Manchester City, Manchester United, Liverpool, Chelsea, Arsenal, and Tottenham Hotspur — can act as a good barometer when assessing the quality of English talent.

This season, 26 per cent of the minutes played among the big six clubs have been from English players — the highest proportion since 2013-14. As Southgate notes, some positions call for greater alarm than others. England are stacked in wide attacking areas — as Phil Foden, Jack Grealish, Marcus Rashford (before getting injured) and Bukayo Saka are all in the current squad with the likes of Jadon Sancho and Raheem Sterling ready to step in.

In other positions, the talent pool is perceived to be a little more sparse.

“I think we've got four left-footed left-backs in the league at the moment so will have to start looking in the Championship or elsewhere.”

Southgate is not necessarily wrong in his assessment, but the situation is complex, position-dependent and nuanced — meaning the numbers must be assessed accordingly.

It is crucial to interrogate data over long periods to pull out key trends from which to compare. How much do Southgate's figures point to a systemic issue? How much do those figures reflect statistical variance between seasons?

Context is key — particularly from a data perspective.

While international managers commenting on the limitations of their selection pool is not new, Southgate suggesting England's numbers are “deteriorating rapidly” feels like a bit of a stretch.