The Numbers Game: Man City aiming to keep the pressure on Arsenal

Manchester City have some momentum.

A few short weeks ago, it looked as though Arsenal had the Premier League title all but wrapped up. 

But since then, the Gunners have lost to Man City in the EFL Cup final, and then were stunned by Southampton in the FA Cup.

The Gunners are still nine points clear at the top, and did get back on track by beating Sporting CP in the Champions League in midweek, but they may well be feeling the pressure.

All Man City can do, though, is keep on winning, and with Arsenal visiting the Etihad on April 19, this weekend's trip to face Chelsea is crucial for Pep Guardiola's team.

Here, we use Opta insights to preview Sunday's headline Premier League clash.

What's expected?

The Opta supercomputer does not hand City much of a chance of surpassing Arsenal to win the title, ranking their chances at just 2.7%.

However, the model is making them slight favourites to take three points at Stamford Bridge and keep their hopes alive.

Guardiola's team come out on top in 41.2% of the data-led sims, while Chelsea are victorious in 33.1%. There is a 25.7% probability of a draw.

Chelsea are winless in their last nine Premier League games against Man City (D3 L6) since a 2-1 away victory in May 2021.

City, on the other hand, have won four of their last five Premier League away games against Chelsea (D1), as many as they had in their previous 26 league visits to Stamford Bridge (D8 L14).

Rosenior under pressure?

There was no giant-killing as Chelsea thrashed Port Vale with ease in the FA Cup last weekend, cruising into a semi-final meeting with Leeds United thanks to a 7-0 victory.

Six different players netted for the Blues, with Port Vale's Jordan Lawrence-Gabriel also putting through his own net.

Chelsea have reached the FA Cup semi-finals for the 28th time, with only Manchester United (32) and Arsenal (30) reaching the final four of the competition on more occasions.

However, in the league, the Blues are facing a tough test in the race for European qualification, with back-to-back defeats prior to the international break meaning Liam Rosenior has come under some scrutiny.

Chelsea were particularly poor against Everton on March 21, as the Toffees claimed a 3-0 victory at Hill Dickinson Stadium.

The Blues sit in sixth, just two points above Brentford and Everton.

Opta's supercomputer is predicting Chelsea to finish sixth (27.3%), while they finish fifth in 24.1% of simulations and seventh in 16.5%, but there's no doubt the pressure is on Rosenior to deliver a higher standard of displays in the top flight than the Blues have been showing.

After winning each of their first four Premier League games under Rosenior, Chelsea have since won just one of their last six (D2 L3). Since the start of this period (a 2-2 draw with Leeds on February 10), only Leeds (four) and Tottenham (one) have fewer points in the competition than the Blues (five).

If Chelsea are to get back on course against City, then they will have to do so without Enzo Fernandez, as he completes his two-match, club-enforced suspension.

Fernandez has made more passes that have broken the opposition's defensive line than any player in the Premier League this season (41).

He has also made 36 line-breaking passes into the opposition's penalty area, a joint-high with Bruno Fernandes, while the Argentine's 51 chances created also tops Chelsea's squad in the Premier League.

Have run-in Man City arrived?

City already have one trophy under their belts now, and this is the time of year they just tend to come good.

In fact, City have won 28 of their last 31 Premier League games in the month of April (D2 L1).

Under Guardiola, they average 2.5 points per game in the competition in April (P38 W30 D5 L3), the highest rate of any team to play 15+ matches in a specific month under a manager; in second place is also Guardiola's City side in May (2.47).

Run-in City are a different beast, and Arsenal will be well aware of it. They will also be hoping for a helping hand from their London rivals.

We should expect a front-foot approach from not just City, but Chelsea, too.

City (51) and Chelsea (50) have had more shots following high turnovers than any other sides in the Premier League this season.

Indeed, in the reverse meeting between these two sides in January, City recorded 24 high turnovers against the Blues – the most by any team in a single Premier League match this season.

Integral to City's play this term has been Bernardo Silva, who looks set to depart the club at the end of the campaign.

Silva's next appearance in the Premier League, meanwhile, will be his 297th, setting a new record by a Portuguese player in the competition, surpassing Luís Boa Morte's 296.

After netting against West Ham last time out, Silva is aiming to score in back-to-back league appearances for Man City for the first time since March 2023.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Chelsea – Cole Palmer

With Fernandez absent for Chelsea, the creative onus will likely fall on former City attacker Palmer.

Despite playing only 20 Premier League games this season, Palmer is the Blues' second-highest scorer in the top flight with nine goals, behind only Joao Pedro (14).

He has registered 5.9 open-play shot-ending sequence involvements per 90 in the league this term, which ranks joint-third in Chelsea's squad. 

Man City – Erling Haaland

If City are to push Arsenal all the way for the title, they need Haaland back on top form.

Haaland comes into this game on the back of netting a hat-trick in City's 4-0 thrashing of Liverpool in the FA Cup last week.

However, after scoring 19 goals in 17 Premier League appearances prior to Christmas this season, Haaland has since scored just three in his last 12 for City – two of which have been penalties.

Indeed, before Christmas, he was averaging 0.89 non-penalty expected goals per 90 in the 2025-26 Premier League; since, this has dropped to 0.32.