The Numbers Game: Tottenham aim for second in London derby versus Chelsea

It has been something of a strange start to the season for Tottenham.

They have not won a home Premier League game since beating Burnley 3-0 on the opening day of the campaign, with Bournemouth, Wolves and Aston Villa all earning results at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium since then.

But 13 points from a possible 15 on the road have helped Thomas Frank's team occupy third place in the Premier League table, and if they can overcome Chelsea, they will climb another place into second, ahead of Bournemouth facing Manchester City on Sunday.

Enzo Maresca's Blues have been inconsistent this term, with a 2-1 Premier League defeat to Sunderland and a nervy 4-3 EFL Cup win at Wolves doing little to stem criticism of the Italian.

But Chelsea do possess an excellent record against Spurs, and they would move level on points with their London rivals with a victory on Saturday.

Ahead of the game, we dive into the Opta data to pick out the players and storylines to watch.

What's expected? 

The Opta supercomputer is backing Chelsea ahead of Saturday's game, but not by an overwhelming margin.

Across our 10,000 pre-match simulations, Chelsea were victorious in 38.9%, with Spurs winning 35.1% and 26% being drawn.

And in the supercomputer's season predictions, Chelsea are assigned a 28.2% chance of finishing in the top four, compared to Spurs' 18.5%. 

Spurs are only given a 1.1% chance of winning the title despite their current position, with Arsenal (68.2%) huge favourites, and Manchester City (12.9%), Liverpool (9.6%), Chelsea (1.9%), Aston Villa (1.7%) and even Bournemouth (1.4%) also receiving more backing from the supercomputer. 

Chelsea may have lost three of their last five Premier League matches, but they have an excellent record at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.

They have won on five of their six trips to the venue in the Premier League (one defeat) – the most victories any visiting team has achieved there.

Their only loss came by a 2-0 scoreline, when Cristian Stellini filled in for Antonio Conte in the Spurs dugout in February 2023.

That defeat is also the only loss Chelsea have suffered in their last 13 Premier League meetings with Tottenham overall, winning 10 and drawing two in that span.

Meanwhile, Frank has lost just two of his eight Premier League games against Chelsea, all with Brentford (three wins, three draws). 

However, all three of his victories against them have come at Stamford Bridge, with the Dane winless in his four home games versus the Blues (three draws, one defeat).

Spurs eye home statement 

Last weekend, Spurs became the first team to defeat Everton at Hill Dickinson Stadium, with Micky van de Ven scoring two headers and Pape Matar Sarr adding one of his own in a 3-0 victory.

Though they were eliminated from the EFL Cup by Newcastle United at St. James Park on Wednesday, Spurs have fared far better on their travels this term, earning four wins and a draw on the road in the Premier League.

Their 13 away points are the most of any team in the division, and no other team to have played five road games has taken more than seven (Man City, Crystal Palace and Sunderland).

If Spurs are to cement a spot in the top four or even harbour hopes of a surprise title push, they will have to improve at home, with only West Ham (zero), Wolves (one) and Nottingham Forest (three) winning fewer points on their own turf than their four.

One avenue to success could be set-pieces. Frank was known for his use of dead balls at Brentford, and there are already signs of his Spurs team picking up that strength. 

Only Arsenal (seven) and Chelsea (six) have scored more Premier League goals from corners this season than Tottenham's five, while they have also scored five headed goals. 

At 29.4% of their total goals, it is the highest percentage of headed goals they have scored in a season since 1998-99, when 34% of their goals came via headers (16/47).

Spurs have also generated 35.15% of their total expected goals (3.54 xG) this season from set-pieces – the fifth-highest percentage in the Premier League, behind Sunderland (43%), Arsenal (38%), Chelsea (37%) and Newcastle (35%).

Young Chelsea must show more maturity

There have been murmurs of discontent around Stamford Bridge lately, with Chelsea suffering more defeats in their last five Premier League matches (three) than they did in their previous 16 (two).

Another loss on Saturday would see Chelsea suffer four defeats inside their opening 10 games of a season for just the third time in 31 years, after previously doing so in 2015-16 (five defeats) and 2023-24 (four).

The Blues suffered a sucker punch late on in their most recent league game, a 2-1 defeat to Sunderland, and a topsy-turvy 4-3 EFL Cup win over Wolves in midweek did little to inspire confidence among their supporters.

Having cruised into a 3-0 lead via first-half goals from Andrey Santos, Tyrique George and Estevao, Chelsea were pegged back to 3-2 and 4-3 late on, with Jamie Gittens' stunning volley ultimately proving enough to get them over the line.

Maresca shuffled his pack at Molineux, with Marc Cucurella, Pedro Neto, Enzo Fernandez, Moises Caicedo and Liam Delap all coming off the bench, though the latter was sent off for two petulant bookable offences.

So there will be a very different look to Chelsea's line-up at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, but Maresca will certainly want to see a more mature performance. 

He described Delap's red card as "stupid and embarrassing", and Chelsea's five dismissals in all competitions this season are the joint-most of any team from Europe's top five leagues, alongside Girona. No other team has received more than three red cards.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Tottenham – Micky van de Ven

Against Everton last week, Van de Ven became the first Spurs defender to score twice in a Premier League game since Jan Vertonghen in March 2013 against Liverpool.

He is in line to make his 50th Premier League appearance on Saturday, and his importance to Spurs' defence cannot be overstated.

Since Van de Ven joined in 2023, Spurs have averaged 1.7 points per game when he has appeared in the Premier League, compared to just 1.1 without him.

Chelsea – Joao Pedro

Joao Pedro has two Premier League goals since joining Chelsea from Brighton, and he will carry their attacking hopes on Saturday, with Delap suspended and Cole Palmer out injured.

He has contributed to a long run of Chelsea goals by players not yet in their thirties.

Excluding own goals, each of their last 101 goals in the Premier League have been scored by players under the age of 30, the eighth-longest run in the competition's history.