The Numbers Game: Will PSG compound Liverpool's recent misery?

For the second successive season, Paris Saint-Germain and Liverpool are going head-to-head in a heavyweight clash in the Champions League knockout stages.

PSG are attempting to retain their title, and despite having to go through the play-offs to reach the last 16, look extremely strong.

They brushed aside Chelsea with big wins across the two legs to book their place in the last eight, while Liverpool had to do things the hard way after coming from behind to beat Galatasaray, having lost the first leg.

But while PSG are enjoying another successful season with silverware still in their sights, Liverpool are wobbling once more, winning just two of their seven matches in all competitions since the start of March (D1 L4).

Arne Slot is coming under increasing pressure after back-to-back losses in the Premier League and the FA Cup on either side of the international break.

And the last team he would have wanted to travel to would be the European champions, who have made a habit of beating English sides in the Champions League of late.

So, will PSG's dominance against Premier League sides continue, or will Liverpool get back on course at the Parc des Princes?

Here, using Opta data, we look ahead to the Champions League quarter-final first-leg clash.

What's expected?

PSG triumphed over the Reds on penalties to progress from the round of 16 last year, en route to winning the Champions League for the first time.

Overall, PSG and Liverpool have met on six previous occasions in European competition, with the victories (not counting penalty shoot-outs) split evenly at three each.

Across last season's tie, which finished 1-1 on aggregate before PSG's shoot-out victory, Liverpool averaged just 38.6% possession and had 14 fewer shots on target than Luis Enrique's team across the two legs (four for, 18 against).

It is their biggest negative shot-on-target differential in a Champions League knockout-stage tie on record (since 2003-04).

Liverpool will be hoping for a much better performance this time around, but they are not expected to win at the Parc des Princes, with PSG the favourites in the first leg.

PSG are given a 52.5% chance of winning on Wednesday by the Opta supercomputer, with Liverpool's chances sitting at 24.5%. There is a further 23% chance of the first leg ending level.

Another English test awaits PSG

Before PSG took on Chelsea in the last round, Luis Enrique joked that his team might as well be trying to win the Premier League, given how often they face English clubs.

And after thrashing the Blues 8-2 on aggregate, PSG are unbeaten in their last six Champions League games against English sides (W5 D1), having already faced Tottenham and Newcastle United in the league phase this season before meeting Chelsea.

That is as many victories as they recorded in their previous 15 encounters with such opponents in the competition (D1 L9).

And PSG have progressed from all four of their knockout-stage ties against English opponents since the start of last season (v Liverpool, Aston Villa, Arsenal and Chelsea).

PSG have found a knack for competing well in the latter stages; they are unbeaten in their last seven knockout-stage matches in the Champions League (W6 D1) and could equal the longest run by a French side in the competition (eight by Lyon – April 2004-March 2006).

However, in four of the last five editions of the Champions League, the holders have been eliminated at the quarter-final stage (Bayern Munich 2020-21, Chelsea 2021-22, Manchester City 2023-24 and Real Madrid 2024-25), with only the latter in 2022-23 managing to progress to the semi-finals.

They remain among the favourites to win it, with the supercomputer giving them a 12% chance of regaining their trophy, with only Arsenal (28%), Bayern (21%) and Barcelona (17%) ahead of them.

PSG look unstoppable in front of goal, though, and are the highest scorers in the competition before the quarter-finals, netting 34 goals from 25.2 expected goals (xG), an overperformance of 8.8.

They also top the charts for shots (241) and shots on target (90), but they will be coming up against one of their toughest tests so far, with Liverpool boasting one of the best defences in the competition.

Can Slot end Liverpool's slump?

Slot is coming under increasing pressure as Liverpool's season threatens to spin out of his control, with the Champions League the last piece of silverware on offer to them.

Liverpool were comprehensively beaten 4-0 by Man City in the FA Cup quarter-final at the weekend, with familiar issues rearing their head as they lost a 15th game in all competitions in 2025-26.

It is their most defeats in a single season since 2014-15 when they lost 18 matches under Brendan Rodgers.

Prior to the international break, they were also beaten by Brighton, meaning they are embroiled in a race to finish in the Champions League places.

So, with a big result needed against the reigning European champions, Liverpool will be hoping to put on a better show than they did in the away leg against Galatasaray in the last round.

They lost 1-0 at RAMS Park in the first leg against Gala, despite getting six of their 15 shots on target, but they responded brilliantly to dominate the clash at Anfield to clinch a 4-0 win.

Liverpool had 32 shots in that match, racking up 4.9 xG from their 32 attempts, with 16 of those on target.

And they overturned a first-leg deficit to progress from a two-legged knockout tie in the Champions League for just the third time (in eight attempts), after the 2006-07 semi-final v Chelsea and 2018-19 semi-final v Barcelona.

Up to the start of this quarter-final round, PSG (90) and Liverpool (85) were the two teams with the most shots on target in the Champions League this season.

However, while Luis Enrique's side are the top scorers, Liverpool have netted just 24 times from 27.7 xG (-3.7).

At the other end, they have looked strong defensively. They have conceded just nine goals in the tournament so far, with only Arsenal (five) letting in fewer.

And only Chelsea (84) have faced fewer shots than Liverpool's 88, with only 29 of those on target – they are also second in that metric behind Arsenal (27).

This is the only piece of silverware left on offer to Liverpool, and Slot could really do with a change in fortunes.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Paris Saint-Germain – Khvicha Kvaratskhelia

Kvaratskhelia has been directly involved in 11 goals in 11 games in the Champions League this season (seven goals, four assists).

It is already the joint-second most by a PSG player in a single edition (level with Kylian Mbappe from 2020-21) and trailing only Ousmane Dembele from last season (14 in 15 games).

Meanwhile, only Mbappe (18) has been directly involved in more Champions League goals than Kvaratskhelia since the start of 2025 (16 – 10 goals, six assists).

Liverpool – Florian Wirtz

Wirtz has created 27 chances from open play in nine Champions League games for Liverpool.

The most by a player in their first 10 games for a club in the competition (on record since 2003-04) is 32 by Mesut Ozil for Real Madrid, while Wirtz's total is already the most on record by a player for an English club through 10 appearances.

Despite that, he has accumulated just 3.4 expected assists (xA) in the competition – the second-highest total for Liverpool behind Mohamed Salah's 3.8 xA – and registered three assists.