The Numbers Game: rivals reunite as Man City head to Liverpool

For much of the past decade, Liverpool v Manchester City was the go-to fixture in the Premier League calendar.

Jurgen Klopp and Pep Guardiola forged one of the great rivalries of the Premier League era.

Man City might have dominated, but they were pushed all the way by Klopp's Liverpool, who broke up Guardiola's monopoly in 2019-20.

But Sunday's clash at Anfield is perhaps not quite the all-on-the-line encounter it used to be between these clubs.

Liverpool beat Man City home and away (winning 2-0 on each occasion) last season, en route to winning their second Premier League title, as Guardiola's side dropped out of the title race entirely.

This term, City are in the hunt for a league double over the Reds.

Liverpool's title defence has been shoddy. They sit sixth, 14 points off leaders Arsenal, though they did at least bounce back from a last-gasp defeat to Bournemouth by thrashing Newcastle United 4-1 last time out to claim their first league win of 2026.

And while City are not storming their way to the title in the way Liverpool did last season, they are in the mix.

Their 2-2 draw at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium last week, which came after they gave up a 2-0 lead, means they head into the weekend six points behind the Gunners, although the gap could be nine points by the time this game rolls around.

What's expected?

City's chances of winning the title are slim, according to Opta's supercomputer, which hands them just a 5.7% likelihood of overtaking Arsenal.

Although Guardiola has stressed there is plenty of time remaining this term, they must also begin to take chances to catch up with Arsenal when they do present themselves.

However, Liverpool are expected to come out on top in this contest, with a 42.7% win probability.

City, on the other hand, won in 30.7% of the model's 10,000 data-led simulations. The chance of a draw is 26.6%.

Liverpool have lost just one of their last 22 Premier League home games against City (W14 D7).

Following their 3-0 win at the Etihad in November, though, City are looking to complete their first league double over Liverpool since 1936-37, which was also the last time they won consecutive league games against them.

In fact, the last team to beat Liverpool twice to nil in the same Premier League campaign was West Ham in 2015-16.

Interestingly, the last three meetings between these sides have been won to nil.

City are the league's top scorers heading into the weekend, having netted 49 times in 24 games – three more goals than any other team. They have the second-highest expected goals (xG), too, of 43.6.

Liverpool, on the other hand, have had the second-most shots (372), though those attempts have only combined for an accumulative 38.7 xG.

Finishing has also proved an issue for the Reds, whose shot conversion rate of 10.5% ranks 15th in the league. City, in contrast, rank second (14.5%). 

Wirtz finally flourishing

Florian Wirtz was widely tipped to hit the ground running in the Premier League. Instead, the former Bayer Leverkusen star needed time to settle.

But he is now getting into his groove, and this is a chance for the Germany international to show his class against one of the league's best teams.

Liverpool went into their meeting with Newcastle United last week on the back of a five-game winless streak in the league, which was their worst such run since 2021. And matters looked like they could get worse for Arne Slot as the Magpies dominated the opening 30 minutes before taking the lead through Anthony Gordon.

Yet Liverpool hit back in style, and Wirtz was crucial to it.

His quick feet and vision teed up Hugo Ekitike to equalise, and the Frenchman doubled his tally two minutes later with an exquisite finish.

Wirtz made it 3-1 midway through the second half, before Ibrahima Konate bundled home late on to add further gloss.

Since December 20, when he set up Alexander Isak against Tottenham, Wirtz has been involved in more goals than any other Premier League player in all competitions (nine – six goals, three assists).

Liverpool have also shown a penchant for coming from behind, too.

Indeed, since the start of last season, only three teams have picked up more points from losing positions in the Premier League than Liverpool (28), while only Brighton (42) have scored more goals in games in which they have conceded the first goal than the Reds (41).

And while Liverpool's wobble earlier this season all but ruined their chances of defending their crown (from MD6 to MD12, the Reds lost more Premier League games than any other club – P7 W1 L6), they have proved extremely difficult to beat since then.

In fact, since MD13, no side has lost fewer games than Slot's team (P12 W5 D6 L1).

Will a fast start be key for City?

Coincidentally, City also come into this game on the back of a win over Newcastle, that one coming in the EFL Cup semi-finals, as Guardiola's men teed up a Wembley showdown with Arsenal next month.

Guardiola's side won 3-1 on Wednesday, sealing a 5-1 aggregate win, but all of their goals came in the first half. And, City were fortunate not to concede more than one goal after the break.

That follows the trend of 2026 so far for City, who are the only Premier League side in 2026 so far who have not conceded a single goal in the first half of a match, scoring six times themselves.

However, they are also the only side that have not scored a second-half goal since the turn of the year, while they have conceded six goals in the second period.

So, Liverpool will have to be wary of City getting off to a flying start, though the Reds may well be smelling blood when it comes to making the most of their opponents' second-half vulnerabilities.

However, only Liverpool (nine) and Manchester United (seven) have won more away games against reigning Premier League champions than City (six), with the Citizens winning five of their last six such visits (L1).

One player who has not thrived at the home of the current champions, though, is Erling Haaland.

The Norwegian goal machine has failed to score in all three of his Premier League away games against Liverpool. Anfield is one of just two grounds he has played at but not scored in the competition, along with Sunderland's Stadium of Light.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Liverpool – Hugo Ekitike

Ekitike has scored or assisted every 112 minutes in the Premier League this season (10 goals, two assists in 1,342 minutes), the best ratio by a Liverpool player in their first season at the club since Mohamed Salah in 2017-18 (32 goals, 10 assists – one every 70 minutes).

His double against Newcastle took him to 10 Premier League goals this season; at 23 years and 225 days, he became the youngest player for Liverpool to reach double figures in a league season since Michael Owen in 2000-01 (21y 138d).

Wirtz and Ekitike, meanwhile, have combined for six goals in the Premier League this term, more than any other duo.

Manchester City – Antoine Semenyo

Semenyo has previous at Anfield. The winger, who has scored four goals in six City appearances, netted twice for Bournemouth in a 4-2 win for Liverpool in the opening game of the campaign.

Since Semenyo joined City, only Rodri (12) has been involved in more open-play shot-ending sequences for Guardiola's team than the Ghana international (10).

Semenyo is not the only attacking force Liverpool will have to contend with. Indeed, only Bruno Fernandes (3.4) has created more chances per 90 minutes in the Premier League this season than Rayan Cherki (three). It is the most by a player in their debut season (minimum 1,000 mins played) since Emiliano Buendia in 2019-20 for Norwich City (also three).