WSL predictions: Can Chelsea put pressure on Man City ahead of the winter break?

With the end of the year drawing closer, the Women's Super League is getting set for the winter break after one more round of matches.

No matter what, Manchester City will sit top of the table for Christmas as they currently hold a six-point lead at the top over Chelsea, who saw their record-breaking 34-game unbeaten streak come to an end as they lost for the first time since May 2024.

Manchester United and Arsenal are hoping to keep the pace at the halfway point, but Tottenham are also threatening, with only two points separating second from fifth.

At the other end, West Ham and Liverpool face off for what could prove to be a huge three points in the fight for their WSL safety, with the Reds still without a win this term.

But who is expected to end 2025 on a high? Here, with the help of the Opta supercomputer, we have a look ahead to MD11.

EVERTON V ARSENAL

After a run of three games without a win in all competitions, Arsenal bounced back by beating lowly Liverpool in the league before booking their place in the Champions League knockout stage by beating Twente on Tuesday.

However, they will be keen to keep that run going against Everton, who sprung the biggest surprise of the season last time out, as the Gunners would go second with a win.

They are given a 67% chance of winning by the Opta supercomputer, given they have gone unbeaten in their last 22 meetings with Everton (W19 D3).

Arsenal have, however, only won one of their last three league meetings with the Toffees (D2), after winning 16 in a row prior to that. Another draw has an 18% likelihood. And though they are unbeaten in five WSL games, their last four defeats have come away from home.

Everton are given a 15% chance of victory, meanwhile, but are looking for their first back-to-back league wins since November/December 2023.

Brian Sorensen's team have not had a lot of joy since permanently moving to Goodison Park, though. They have lost each of their last four WSL home games – never before have they lost five in a row.

BRIGHTON V CHELSEA

Sonia Bompastor suffered her first WSL defeat in charge of Chelsea last time out, ending their record unbeaten streak, with the champions truly wobbling.

Draws with Arsenal and Liverpool saw Chelsea drop off the pace before their loss to Everton saw them fall further back from Man City, though they did storm to a 6-0 Champions League win over Roma in midweek.

Despite their recent run of form in the league, Chelsea are backed to triumph against Brighton, winning 77% of the supercomputer's pre-match simulations, compared to the Seagulls' 10%.

That is down to the fact that Brighton have never won in seven previous home league games against Chelsea (D3 L4), though they have held them to three draws on home turf. The chances of a fourth sit at 13%.

The Blues are unbeaten in each of their last eight WSL games against Brighton (W6 D2), and they are looking to continue that run to avoid suffering successive defeats for the first time since July 2015.

Chelsea have accumulated 21 points from their 10 matches this season (W6 D3 L1), which is their lowest points tally at this stage of a campaign since 2018-19 (19) – the last time they failed to win the league.

LEICESTER CITY V LONDON CITY LIONESSES

Leicester City are winless in eight games, but their match against London City Lionesses is almost too close to call for the supercomputer.

The Lionesses are narrow favourites at 38.8% to Leicester's 35.2%, but a draw – at 26% – is the most likely outcome, despite London City's mid-table position.

Leicester won each of their first four WSL games against promoted opposition, but last season were the only team that failed to beat Crystal Palace, losing 2-0 at home (2-2 away).

London City won their last away match 3-1 against Aston Villa on MD9, and are seeking to become the first promoted side in the top-flight to win successive games on the road since Villa in November/December 2020.

They will feel fairly confident they can do so as Leicester have only won their final league game in one of the four calendar years in which they have been a WSL side – that came in their first in 2021 against Birmingham City (D2 L1 since).

MANCHESTER CITY V ASTON VILLA

Top of the table Manchester City are looking to cement their place at the summit ahead of the winter break, and face an Aston Villa side who comfortably beat Liverpool 3-0 on Thursday.

City now finish top of the 2025-26 WSL in 70% of the Opta Supercomputer's simulations, which would see the Citizens win the title for just the second time ever (after 2016).

They have won eight of their 10 WSL games against Villa, winning four times in a row on either side of a winless 2022-23 campaign (D1 L1). The Villans, meanwhile, have never won away to City.

Villa have lost just one of their last eight away league games in the top-flight (W5 D2), however, that was their most recent road trip – a 2-1 loss to Tottenham.

And given City have won their opening five home games in the league this term, they are heavy favourites to win here at 80.8%. Villa's chances of a first away win against them sits at just 7.4%.

In fact, Andree Jeglertz's side have won their last nine WSL outings, and could become just the fourth side to win 10 of their opening 11 games in a single campaign if they can round off the year with three more points.

WEST HAM V LIVERPOOL

The last of the early kick-offs sees the bottom two go head-to-head in what can only be described as a six-pointer.

Liverpool are still awaiting their first win of the campaign, but West Ham, who are the supercomputer's pick to be relegated, are only two points ahead of them with only one win to their name in 2025-26.

West Ham have won only one of their 10 WSL meetings with Liverpool (D4 L5), winning 4-2 at Rush Green under Matt Beard in February 2020.

The Hammers have won their final home league game in three of the last four calendar years (L1), while Liverpool have only won their final away league game in two of the last seven calendar years (D2 L3).

However, this exact fixture has ended in a draw in each of the last three seasons, with Riko Ueki netting a late equaliser for the Hammers in each of the last two campaigns (95th minute in October 2023, 85th minute in September 2024).

And unsurprisingly, this game is tipped to end level once again at 26.4%, though West Ham are given a slight edge over Liverpool in the win probability, with the hosts winning 37.8% of the simulations to the Reds' 35.8%.

MANCHESTER UNITED V TOTTENHAM

Manchester United have suffered a wobble in form over the last month, with just one win from their last four in all competitions, with Tottenham next up in Sunday's final match.

That victory was in United's last WSL outing, beating West Ham 2-1 to stay in touching distance at the top of the table, but only another win would cement their place in the top three for Christmas, especially with Spurs only one point behind them.

They are given a 70.9% chance of victory to Spurs' 12.5% given their impressive record against the north London side. United have only played more games against Everton in the WSL (13) than Tottenham (P12 W10 D2) without ever losing.

United are looking for back-to-back home wins for the first time this season and face a Spurs side who have lost their last two on the road, having won both away games before that.

Marc Skinner's side do have their frailties, which Spurs will be keen to exploit. They have conceded in each of their last six WSL games, their longest-ever run without a clean sheet in the competition.