When Guardiola will decide future and City sound out possible replacements

Usually Pep Guardiola would circle the pitch alongside his players to applaud those who stayed behind, especially on a night that presented far more positives than such a crushing Champions League defeat would immediately suggest.

But such was the chaotic nature of Real Madrid’s visit to Manchester City, so many aspects to ponder and so many to offer enthusiasm for a brighter future, that once the handshakes were done, Guardiola and his checked overshirt were down the tunnel.

A night that had him asking, “what if?” and a night that must have instilled belief that this City rebuild is heading in the right direction. Does he really want to mark this, a fourth exit in five years at the hands of Real, as his final act in Europe as manager?

The way it played out was in keeping with Guardiola’s overall record in the competition in England. Ultimately a hard luck story yet one with regret, chief among them the mental fragility of a team who can allow one goal to quickly become two and find themselves behind the eight ball, chasing pockets blind.

In that sense, City 1-2 Real Madrid, and 1-5 on aggregate, was a movie of Guardiola’s decade in charge. It could have been a whole lot different were Thibaut Courtois not inspired, were City to put in just one of their early chances in the Bernabeu or were Bernardo Silva not to instinctively fling an arm. Those will gnaw away at Guardiola, whose tally of one trophy in 10 seasons was put to him in the context of his own future in the aftermath.

‘Everyone wants to fire me, why?’ he said, exasperated at a third question on the topic. Depending on who you talk to, his answers ranged from suggesting that he would remain for next season – his contract ending in 2027 – to the conclusion that vagueness in responses can only mean he is waving goodbye this summer but doesn’t want to publicly commit to such in fear of its ramifications.

The reality appears bang in the middle of these two things. Guardiola might be perceived as vague and non-committal because he genuinely doesn’t know what lies ahead. Some days he questions his energy levels. Other days, it is as if he’s 36 and starting with Barcelona’s B team all over again.

Staff know this, they see it. Guardiola wears emotions and thoughts on his sleeve - even sleeves of a baggy persuasion that wouldn’t look out of place in middle America.

The plan, it is understood, is for the 55-year-old to go away on Monday after the Carabao Cup final and think on what is best for him and what is best for City, a moment that affords him the space to truly weigh things up. Whether he has had enough time required to make such a life-altering decision is unlikely given the packed schedule and the sort of inconsistency in performance that keeps him stuck to the tactics board.

There will come a point that director of football Hugo Viana will have to be made aware too. City, as we know, have spoken informally to Enzo Maresca, whom Real Madrid looked at in the wake of Xabi Alonso’s departure. Maresca will not be the only one who has held a conversation with Viana and Guardiola has always seen the future planning as prudent.

It is not the first time City have sounded out potential replacements, with Guardiola’s knowledge – conversations with possible successors most notable in 2021. Last season he made the call to renew amid a run of surprise defeats while away in Dubai and having discussed things with chairman Khaldoon Al Mubarak.

There is so much to work with here and Guardiola continues to reference how ‘we will be back’ next season, explaining that usage on Tuesday night by saying the plural is merely that he will always feel part of the collective at a club he has managed for so long.

The reaction to their history-making fourth consecutive Premier League title in 2024 has had a bearing on all of this, City opting against aggressively hitting the transfer market that summer and being lulled into thinking the squad could go again without overhaul. It couldn’t, so the transfer business since has not been as seamless.

That gives Guardiola a project. Younger players who will be more capable of challenging next year, having grown to learn to play alongside each other with more assurance. Seeing tangible improvement is what he is in the game for and it will act as dopamine because this City team in its current guise will only improve.

When he is away next week, after Arsenal at Wembley, the club’s hierarchy will hope those thoughts are more prevalent than thinking back to the long, hard winters.