Why conceding seven or more goals in a Premier League game is no big deal

Seven goals in a football scoreline simply looks wrong. It's the point when things go from unusual to absurd. It's the stage where the scoreline has to be spelled out on the vidiprinter to prevent confusion with '1'. Conceding five is bad, six is a significant setback, but seven is a true shock.

For a club like Manchester United, it's almost a once-in-a-lifetime event. Sunday was the first time they'd conceded seven in a league game since 1960 and the first time they'd lost by seven goals since 1931.

But in the context of 7-0 hammerings, Manchester United really weren't that bad at Anfield. They were soundly beaten, of course: dragged apart in the first half, blown away at times in the second and seemingly lacking desire in the closing stages.

But 7-0 was something of a freak scoreline. Expected goals (xG) figures don't tell us everything about a game, but it's worth considering Liverpool's xG figure in this contest, according to Opta, was just 2.8. In that sense, it wasn't even Manchester United's worst showing of the season — they allowed both Manchester City and Arsenal more chances on their respective visits to the Etihad and the Emirates. Liverpool scored with seven of their eight shots on target. It happens, just not very often.

That might not be particularly helpful in cheering up United fans. But the point stands: Manchester United were a little unfortunate that Liverpool proved so ruthless. Burnley also allowed Liverpool 2.8 xG at Anfield last season and conceded just twice. Fair enough. Seven was a bit of a stretch.

This is often the case when a side is on the end of a true battering. Since the start of 2016-17, there have been seven occasions when a side has conceded exactly seven goals – and the opposition's average xG tally is just 3.1. It has never been higher than 3.8, when Stoke lost 7-2 at Manchester City in 2017, and it's been as low as 2.6, when Crystal Palace were thumped by Liverpool 7-0 two seasons ago. Often, for the side on the end of the humiliation, there's no real need to panic.

PL sides conceding 7+ goals since 2016/17 Losing side Opponents Season Goals xGA▼WatfordMan City2019-2085.87SouthamptonLeicester2019-2094.68SouthamptonMan Utd2020-2194.67Stoke CityMan City2017-1873.84NorwichChelsea2021-2273.44Hull CityTottenham2016-1773.35BournemouthLiverpool2022-2393.32LeedsMan City2021-2273.12Man UtdLiverpool2022-2372.78LiverpoolAston Villa2020-2172.7Crystal PalaceLiverpool2020-2172.56

The last side to suffer a serious humiliation in the Premier League were also playing away at Anfield. In August, Bournemouth visited Liverpool and were thrashed 9-0, just the fifth time in the Premier League era a side had conceded nine goals in a game.

At that stage, four games into the season, Bournemouth seemed doomed — even considering they'd picked up a victory on the opening day at home to Aston Villa. You surely can't get hammered 9-0 and expect to compete in the Premier League.

But, again, the xG figures suggested things weren't as bad as they seemed. Bournemouth only allowed Liverpool an xG of 3.3 and, rather than their season collapsing, Bournemouth subsequently enjoyed an excellent run of form.

Granted, it involved them parting company with Scott Parker and appointing Gary O'Neil — at that point only as caretaker manager. But Bournemouth kept a clean sheet in their next match, against Wolves, and went unbeaten in six games. Over half the Premier League, including Liverpool, haven't put together a six-match unbeaten run all season.

Bournemouth weren't conceding nine every week. In fact, it took them another eight games to concede their next nine goals.

Better times for Manchester United as they become the first team to score nine in a Premier League game, against Ipswich in 1995 (Photo: Anton Want/Allsport/Getty Images/Hulton Archive)

So how do sides generally respond to conceding a huge number of goals?

Since the formation of the Premier League in 1992, there have been 44 other examples of a side conceding seven or more goals in a single match. Three of these matches took place on the final day of the campaign, while Everton's 7-0 loss to Arsenal was in their penultimate match of 2004-05. Excluding those examples, there are 40 cases where we can judge how a side responded over their next five league matches.

From those 40 cases, assessing a side's subsequent five results finds they conceded an average of 7.25 goals in those matches, which works out at 1.45 goals per game. It's only 9% higher than the average number of goals conceded by a side in any game in the Premier League era (1.33).

The aforementioned Bournemouth side from earlier this season aren't even the side that fared best defensively in their subsequent five matches after conceding seven. In 2009/10, Aston Villa lost 7-1 at Chelsea, then conceded just three goals in their next five games en route to finishing sixth.

Way back in 1995, Sheffield Wednesday also conceded just three in their five matches after a 7-1 thrashing at Nottingham Forest.

And this kind of thing does actually happen to good sides. Liverpool lost 7-2 at Aston Villa two seasons ago and still came fourth; Arsenal lost 8-2 at Manchester United in 2011-12 and finished third.

It can happen. You have to move on. (Photo: ANDREW YATES/AFP via Getty Images)

There's also no real evidence that teams over-compensate and go ultra-defensive to prevent another thrashing. When sides fail to score many in the next few games, it's generally just because they're bad in general. Ipswich Town were on the wrong end of a 9-0 at Manchester United in 1995, then failed to score in their next five games. But they also had the joint-worst defensive record in the aforementioned 40 cases, conceding 12 times in their next five games.

Maybe the most relevant statistic is that instances of a side conceding seven or more goals in a single game are on the rise. In the first 28 seasons of the Premier League, it happened 36 times – but in the past three and a half seasons, it has occurred on nine occasions.

Maybe that's because of the increased level of inequality within the Premier League, or maybe it's because sides defend with higher lines and when things go wrong, they go desperately wrong. Or maybe, as the xG figures suggest, this is something of a freak occurrence.

Manchester United losing 7-0 at Anfield was an obvious embarrassment, but it's unlikely to have any long-term significance.

On the basis of historical evidence and by assessing the goalscoring form of their upcoming opponents — Southampton, Newcastle, Brentford, Everton and Nottingham Forest — United's defensive record over the next few weeks will be completely back to normal.