Big Data delivers brutal Champions League verdict on Real Madrid and Barcelona

The Champions League 2025–26 is just around the corner and, despite Luis Enrique’s PSG sweeping to victory last season, the French side are not the favorites according to OPTA’s AI. The Big Data predictions for the European Cup point squarely toward England, leaving Spanish clubs well behind.

Real Madrid and Barcelona are given little hope of success by OPTA’s supercomputer. Liverpool and Arsenal emerge as the leading contenders. Liverpool, boosted by a summer of heavy spending, top the list with a 20.4% chance of winning. Right behind them are Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal, semifinalists last year, with 16%. OPTA’s analysis highlights Liverpool’s attacking firepower under Arne Slot and Arsenal’s defensive solidity as the decisive factors.

PSG, the defending champions, come in third with a 12% chance of repeating their triumph in the final set for Budapest, Hungary. Spanish clubs, however, barely register in the projections. Barcelona are the first to appear with 8.4% – the same figure as Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City, who underwhelmed last season. Madrid, meanwhile, are handed just 5.8%. For OPTA’s Big Data, a 16th European crown for Los Blancos looks a distant dream. But history has often shown that Madrid thrive when logic says otherwise.

The other Spanish clubs fare even worse. Atlético Madrid are at 0.6%, while Athletic Bilbao and Villarreal barely scrape into contention with 0.5% and 0.4% respectively. Those minuscule figures come after OPTA ran 10,000 simulations of the competition.

The Premier League is, without doubt, the clear frontrunner. Five of its six entrants feature in the Top 10 favorites. Beyond Liverpool, Arsenal and City, Chelsea are given a 7% chance and Newcastle 3%. By contrast, La Liga is left trailing by miles in the race for a Champions League title.

The power of English football was evident last season in the first campaign under the new 36-team league phase. Madrid knocked out City in the playoffs but were dispatched comfortably by Liverpool and Arsenal in the quarterfinals. Girona also fell to both English sides, while Barcelona and Atlético were spared from facing them – a luxury they will not enjoy this year.

PSG and Bayern dealt tougher hands

OPTA also analyzed the difficulty of each team’s eight league-phase opponents. The data suggests PSV, PSG and Bayern Munich drew the shortest straws, with their rivals carrying a combined 92.4% strength ratio. Atlético’s path looks almost as harsh – the sixth-toughest draw with 91.7% – as they face Liverpool, Arsenal and Inter Milan among others. In contrast, Copenhagen, Arsenal, Pafos and Tottenham are seen as the most fortunate.

On May 30 at the Puskas Arena in Budapest, we’ll find out whether Big Data really knew best.

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