Can Real Madrid qualify for UCL round of 16 against Monaco on Matchday 7?

Real Madrid take on Monaco on Matchday 7 of the league phase of the 2025-26 Champions League, hoping to edge ever closer to direct qualification for the round of 16.

Arbeloa’s first Champions League test

Álvaro Arbeloa takes charge of Los Blancos for the first time in the Champions League and will be desperate to see his team bounce back from a home defeat to Manchester City on Matchday 6.

The 2-1 loss to Pep Guardiola’s side left Madrid seventh in the standings with 12 points. The top eight teams qualify directly for the round of 16 and, with no fewer than 13 clubs sitting within three points of that cutoff, there is little margin for error in the final two games.

Why a win against Monaco is not enough for Madrid

Even if they defeat Monaco at the Bernabéu on Tuesday, Real Madrid cannot secure direct qualification on Matchday 7. A victory would move them to 15 points, level with Bayern Munich, who currently sit second in the table.

But even in the unlikely event that every other result went their way, it still would not be enough to guarantee a top-eight finish. In addition to leaders Arsenal on 18 points, seven other teams - Bayern, PSG, Manchester City, Atalanta, Inter Milan, Atlético Madrid, and Liverpool - could all finish the league phase with at least 15 points, even if they all lost on Matchday 7. That scenario, of course, borders on fantasy.

As a result, the LaLiga giants will almost certainly need at least a point in their final league-phase game away to Benfica on Wednesday, January 28, to qualify directly for the round of 16.

Champions League: Tiebreakers in the league phase

If two or more teams finish level on points, the next tiebreaker is overall goal difference, an area where Real Madrid are well positioned. They currently sit three goals ahead of Atlético Madrid and Liverpool, both tied with them on points, four better than Atalanta, and level with Manchester City, who are one point ahead.

In a congested table where nerves are starting to fray, that cushion could yet prove decisive.