Liverpool top? United 5th or 12th? Opta and Sky Sports predict EPL table!

Are Liverpool destined to retain the title? Could Manchester United really finish in the bottom half of the table again?

The Premier League is back, with more games than ever live on Sky Sports, but what does the new campaign have in store?

Liverpool are out to retain their crown. The champions are the Premier League's biggest spenders in this summer's transfer window as they look to build on the success of last season under Arne Slot.

But will they see off the competition? Runners-up Arsenal have also strengthened. Manchester City have undergone a rebuild. Could Club World Cup winners Chelsea roar into contention?

What about Manchester United and Spurs as they aim to bounce back from record-low finishes? And which clubs are most at risk of relegation? To launch Between the Lines, a new weekly strand explaining the data behind the headlines, we compare the Opta and Sky Sports predicted tables - and find interesting results...

Opta's verdict: Liverpool top, Man Utd 12th!

Opta predict Liverpool will retain the Premier League title following last season's success under Arne Slot, with Arsenal coming second again, albeit by a much narrower margin than last term.

Manchester City, Chelsea, Newcastle and Aston Villa are third, fourth, fifth and sixth respectively, meaning Opta's predicted top six mirrors the final top six last season.

Opta's supercomputer is far from convinced when it comes to Manchester United and Spurs. They are predicted to come 12th and 14th respectively, only three places higher than last term.

FA Cup and Community Shield winners Crystal Palace are predicted to clinch a seventh-placed finish, with Brighton, Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest complete the top 10.

At the other end of the table, Opta expect the promoted teams to go straight back down for the third season running, with Burnley, Leeds and Sunderland finishing 18th, 19th and 20th respectively, a long way off 17th-placed Wolves for expected points.

Sky Sports say: Man Utd, Spurs to rise

The Sky Sports supercomputer is far more optimistic for Manchester United and Spurs in the season ahead.

In fact, Ruben Amorim's side could even be in the frame for a Champions League finish. Sky Sports' predicted table has them fifth, between Chelsea in fourth and Newcastle in sixth.

Spurs, now under the management of Thomas Frank, and beaten on penalties by Paris Saint-Germain in Wednesday's UEFA Super Cup final, are predicted to come eighth.

Liverpool, again, come out on top over Arsenal as champions, with Manchester City in third. But, as in Opta's table, the top two are only separated by a slender expected points margin.

A key difference at the bottom of the table is that newly-promoted Leeds are predicted to survive at the expense of Wolves.

Man Utd better off, Cherries worse off

The two tables feature key similarities, most notably in the make-up of their predicted top fours. But there are huge differences too.

Manchester United are the biggest movers between the Opta and Sky Sports tables, predicted to finish seven places higher by Sky Sports. Spurs are next, featuring six places higher in the Sky Sports table, up from 14th to eighth, while Everton are three places better off, predicted to sneak into the top half.

At the other end of the scale, the Sky Sports table is much more pessimistic when it comes to Bournemouth, putting Andoni Iraola's side six places lower than Opta in 15th following a string of sales.

Crystal Palace, Brentford and Brighton are also given considerably lower predicted finishes, contrary to Opta's optimism.

So why the differences? Both supercomputers are based on averages from 10,000 simulations, using bookmaker odds, historical and recent team performances, and transfer spending.

But the intricacies of the algorithms are different, placing weight on varying factors, which helps to explain some of the disparities seen between the two predicted tables.

Which sides have strengthened most?

The summer transfer window is of course a key factor in predicting how teams will fare. A high spend does not guarantee success. Far from it. But it can be vital to a team's capacity to improve.

All of which helps to explain why Liverpool are tipped to retain the Premier League title by both Opta and Sky Sports. The Reds have spent more on new recruits than any other side this summer, albeit while suffering the tragedy of Diogo Jota's death.

Their total spend is already close to £300m following the arrival of Florian Wirtz for a record fee along with the signings of Hugo Ekitike, Milos Kerkez, Jeremie Frimpong and Giorgi Mamardashvili.

They are not the only ones to have strengthened at considerable expense. The so-called Big Six have spent over £1bn between them this summer. And in fact, Liverpool's net spend is much lower than most of their rivals thanks to some big sales, including those of Luis Diaz and Darwin Nunez.

Arsenal and Manchester City have work to do to shift their unwanted players but their high net spends help to explain why they are predicted to push Liverpool closer this term.

Manchester United, meanwhile, have the highest net spend among all Premier League sides, although, according to their predicted finishes, their recruitment so far this summer has been judged very differently by Opta and Sky Sports.

Why the doubts about Man Utd?

Manchester United have overhauled their attack, making a trio of high-profile additions in Matheus Cunha, Bryan Mbeumo and Benjamin Sesko. So why the 12th-placed prediction from Opta?

They are of course coming from a far lower starting point than Liverpool, having finished 15th last term, but it might also have something to do with how they have so far allocated their funds.

Cunha, Mbeumo and Sesko all have plenty to offer offensively to a side that finished last season as the Premier League's biggest underperformers relative to their expected goals. The lack of firepower and cutting edge needed to be addressed.

But have they overlooked other areas of their squad? Manchester United have invested nearly twice as much in forwards as any other club have invested in any position this summer, but there has been no turnover in goal or in midfield, and only £7m spent on defenders.

This looks problematic given their issues last season were not limited to their attack. Ruben Amorim's side were far from solid in midfield or defence. Only nine Premier League sides conceded more goals. Only eight allowed more expected goals against.

And yet, despite those issues, Manchester United look set to start the new Premier League season with roughly the same personnel as last season in goal, in defence and in midfield.

No challenge from Chelsea?

Chelsea head into the new campaign buoyed by their Club World Cup triumph in the United States but a title challenge is beyond them according to the Opta and Sky Sports supercomputers.

Both predicted tables have Enzo Maresca's side in fourth place, and with near-identical points totals too, ensuring Champions League qualification for a second successive season, but falling a long way short of a push for Premier League glory.

Chelsea, like their Big Six rivals, have invested heavily in new recruits this summer. There is excitement around Estevao, Joao Pedro and Liam Delap in particular. They also start the campaign with a relatively favourable run of fixtures.

But they haven't finished higher than third since their last title triumph in 2016/17. Could a tough run-in, when they face all of Arsenal, Aston Villa, Newcastle, Manchester City, Manchester United, Brighton, Liverpool and Tottenham in the final 11 fixtures, and the exertions of an epic 2024/25 campaign, also bite them?

Another season of strife for Spurs?

Spurs finished last season on a Europa League-winning high but a 17th-placed Premier League finish did for Ange Postecoglou.

Frank has arrived from Brentford as his successor and the club have so far added six new players, including Mohammed Kudus from West Ham and Joao Palhinha on loan from Bayern Munich, both of whom impressed in their UEFA Super Cup loss to Paris Saint-Germain.

Despite that, there is no dramatic transformation in the offing, according to the supercomputers. Sky Sports see their prospects as much brighter than Opta, who predict a second successive bottom-half finish, but even an eighth-placed finish puts Spurs below the level they aspire to.

Leeds to survive, Wolves at risk?

The predicted tables make grim reading for Burnley and Sunderland supporters but there is hope for Leeds, at least according to the Sky Sports supercomputer.

Daniel Farke's side, who pipped Burnley to the Championship title on goal difference last season, are predicted to finish 17th, fractionally ahead of Wolves, who have lost key players this summer in Cunha to Manchester United and Rayan Ait-Nouri to Manchester City.

The West Midlands club have so far spent modestly this summer, their outlay totalling just £48.4m, which ensures a healthy profit from the £103.7m received in sales, but raises questions about the quality and depth available to head coach Vitor Pereira.

What do the Sky Sports writers say?

We asked our journalists to come up with their predicted tables too.

As an average, Liverpool came out as champions, with Manchester United and Spurs in sixth and seventh respectively.

Leeds, Sunderland and Burnley are tipped for the drop.

Leave your comments about the predictions and your own with us!