Liverpool will have just a 14% chance of winning the title if they LOSE at Man City, say stat gurus

Liverpool will have just a 14 per cent chance of winning the Premier League title if they lose this Sunday to Manchester City, according to a statistical study.

Analysis from data company Nielsen Gracenote ahead of Sunday's title showdown between the top-two in the English top-flight shows that the Reds' chances of claiming the title would go down drastically with a loss - they would be four points behind with seven games remaining.

Yet a victory would make Jurgen Klopp's side the favourites - but not by much - with their hopes rising to 68 per cent, while a draw would produce little change, with Pep Guardiola's team still favourites at 63% compared to Liverpool's 37%.

Nielsen Gracenote's Euro Club Index ranks Man City and Liverpool as the two best teams in Europe - but their home advantage this Sunday gives them the edge, as well as their one-point advantage.

The Reds have only recently overtaken Bundesliga champions Bayern Munich in the Index - the two teams could face-off in the semi-finals of the Champions League in a few weeks time.

But other than the 2019-20 season when the Reds overtook City, there has never been as small a gap as there is now between England's best two teams from a statistical basis.

More in-depth research focuses on Liverpool's attacking qualities this season.

According to Nielsen Gracenote, this season's attack is the second most potent in their history, with only the Suarez-Sturridge-Sterling-led attack of 2013-14 superior.

Coincidentally, that was another season where Liverpool missed out on the title on the final day of the season to City; this also happened in 2019.

Yet the study shows this season that Liverpool are taking more shots than in any of the six previous seasons in which Klopp has managed the club.

Liverpool have had 557 goal attempts this season, according to Nielsen Gracenote's data, an increase of nearly 30 per cent compared to last season.

Around 2/3 of those shots are being taken by Liverpool's forwards, comprising of the likes of Premier League top scorer Mohamed Salah, Sadio Mane, Diogo Jota, Roberto Firmino and January signing Luis Diaz.

As a result of these figures, the Reds' attack is more potent than City's - for the first time since Guardiola's first season in the Premier League back in 2016-17.

They also create more opportunities and need fewer shots to score than City - a good omen for this weekend's showdown.

After 30 Premier League matches this season, Liverpool have scored 77 goals. As previously stated, only 2013-14 betters that - the Reds were on 82 goals at the same point.

Nielsen Gracenote also took a look at Liverpool's defensive record this season compared to their failed challenge eight years ago.

While they conceded nearly 12 shots per match and had let in 38 goals by this stage of the campaign, Virgil van Dijk's arrival in January 2018 changed Liverpool's solidity at the back.

After 30 matches of each of the three full seasons which Van Dijk has played in, Liverpool conceded 17, 21 and 20 goals respectively. Prior to Van Dijk's arrival, Liverpool were conceding around twice as many goals.

During the 2013-14 title challenge, Liverpool conceded a goal from every 9.2 shots they faced. By 2018-19, with Van Dijk in the team, they were much harder to score against.

Teams playing Liverpool averaged 13.7 shots per goal scored three seasons ago. Liverpool continue to be difficult to score against when Van Dijk is playing as opponents needed 12.7 shots on average to score in 2019-20 and 12 this season.

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