Despite 12 places and 27 points separating Borussia Dortmund and Mainz in the Bundesliga, Niko Kovac said his team's upcoming clash was far from a foregone conclusion.
Dortmund sit second in the top-flight after a fine recent run of form and are within six points of leaders Bayern Munich ahead of welcoming Mainz to Westfalenstadion on Friday.
And according to the Opta supercomputer, BVB have a slight chance of overhauling Vincent Kompany's team at the summit to win their first top-flight title since 2011-12.
Indeed, Dortmund finished top of the pile in just 2.6% of its season simulations, with Bayern romping to a 35th Bundesliga crown in a whopping 97.4% of those scenarios.
However, BVB are still in with a chance of another trophy after reaching the last 16 of the Champions League, with a two-legged tie against Atalanta to come later this month.
The Bundesliga giants will face RB Leipzig and Bayern either side of their European commitments, and Kovac acknowledged the importance of his team's upcoming fixtures.
"We now have five important matches in two weeks," Kovac said. "Mainz is the most important game for me because a win will help us to prepare for the upcoming games."
But Dortmund take on a Mainz side who have been revitalised under Urs Fischer since the 59-year-old replaced Bo Henriksen at the end of last year.
Mainz have already picked up 13 points in six Bundesliga games in 2026, climbing to 14th in the table after sitting at the bottom of the table with eight points after 15 games.
Only Dortmund (16) and Hoffenheim (15) have collected more points than Mainz (13, level with Bayern and Stuttgart) in the Bundesliga this year.
In addition, Fischer has picked up 15 points in his first eight Bundesliga games with Mainz. Only Jurgen Klopp in 2004-05 previously picked up at least as many points in his first eight top-flight matches with the club.
"I'm delighted that he's back in the Bundesliga. He did a great job in Berlin," Kovac said of Fischer. "You can see that he's now demonstrating those qualities at Mainz too.
"Mainz are fighting for survival. They put in good performances in Munich and Leipzig. This is not a walkover, this is a very well-prepared team."
Kovac also confirmed that Marcel Sabitzer and Karim Adeyemi are in line for a return to the squad after missing their 2-1 win over Wolfsburg last time out.
Yan Couto could also be back in contention after recovering from illness, but Emre Can and Filippo Mane are still out with injuries, while Nico Schlotterbeck is suspended.
"I am convinced that we have enough quality to win the game," Kovac added.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Borussia Dortmund – Serhou Guirassy
Serhou Guirassy has scored three goals in his last two league games and has four Bundesliga goals in 2026, just one goal fewer than he managed before the winter break (five).
He has netted 30 goals in his first 50 top-flight appearances for Dortmund – only Erling Haaland (50) and Timo Konietzka (41) have scored more for the club in their first 50 Bundesliga outings.
Mainz – Nadiem Amiri
Mainz's in-form Nadiem Amiri has scored in five consecutive Bundesliga matches for the first time. Scoring in six consecutive appearances would equal the club record in a single top-flight season, which Mohamed Zidan achieved in 2012.
With nine goals, Amiri has set a new personal best within a single league season. In 2026, he is the joint-top goalscorer in the top-flight with six goals, alongside Andrej Kramaric.