TA: FIFA is paying close attention to riots in Mexico ahead of the World Cup

The Athletic comprehensively analyzes Mexico's Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) leader Nemesio Cervantes being killed and the impact on the upcoming World Cup.

On Sunday, Mexico's top drug lord Nemesio Cervantes was killed, and a series of retaliatory violence in and around Guadalajara after his death has raised concerns about the safety of the 2026 World Cup. The 2026 World Cup will be held in Jalisco for four games, and the state is the hardest hit area in this Mexican unrest.

The World Cup qualifying play-offs are scheduled for late March at the Akron Stadium in Jalisco, which will also host four World Cup group matches in June this year.

The riots from Sunday to Monday morning have raised serious concerns about the safety of the World Cup. A senior FIFA official, who asked not to be named, admitted that FIFA was deeply disturbed by the chaotic images broadcast on global news channels. The official further stated that if FIFA cannot confirm as soon as possible that the safety of all participants and related personnel is fully guaranteed, the venue for the qualifying play-offs may be forced to be adjusted.

However, by Monday evening, the Mexican authorities had gradually begun to restore order. Late at night, FIFA also issued a public statement expressing its support for Mexico. A FIFA spokesperson made it clear that claims of significant security risks in the area were inaccurate and misleading, and firmly stated that they had "full confidence" in the three World Cup host countries of Mexico, Canada and the United States.

However, the spokesperson did not explicitly state whether the play-offs would continue to be held in Guadalajara, only emphasizing that FIFA would not comment on any "hypotheses and speculations".

"The Mexican branch of FIFA is closely monitoring the situation in Jalisco and is always in close communication with the local government," the spokesperson added. "We will continue to follow the actions and instructions of government agencies at all levels to fully maintain public safety and promote the restoration of social order to normal. We reiterate that we will maintain close collaboration with the Mexican federal, state and local governments."

What exactly happened in Guadalajara?

Since the Mexican authorities successfully killed Oseguera Cervantes, the leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG), the entire state of Jalisco, including the Guadalajara metropolitan area, immediately entered a red alert state, which is the highest level of security in the area when dealing with crises.

After the shooting, suspected members of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) engaged in several armed confrontations with the Mexican army. At the same time, cartel members also set fire to cars and set up roadblocks in many places, and the chaos quickly swept through the city, and many shops were also set on fire and destroyed. In addition, there was a prison riot in Puerto Vallarta, further escalating the situation.

To control the situation, Jalisco Governor Pablo Lemus ordered the suspension of public transportation, offline classes and various large-scale events throughout the state from Sunday to Monday. These emergency measures were originally scheduled to last until Tuesday, but local media reported on Monday evening that some businesses would resume operations on Wednesday, and schools would resume classes at the same time.

Affected by the riots, the Mexican Women's Football League (Liga MX Femenil) has postponed the derby between Guadalajara Chivas and Mexico America, which was originally scheduled to be held at the Akron Stadium on Sunday evening, and several other football matches have also been canceled. However, the friendly match between the Mexican men's national football team and Iceland in Queretaro on Wednesday will still be held as planned.

Lemus said publicly on Monday: "We are fully promoting the restoration of peace in Jalisco and gradually restarting daily activities throughout the state, including the normal passage of surrounding roads."

Why do the riots pose a threat to the World Cup?

The Akron Stadium in Zapopan, near Guadalajara, will host four World Cup matches from June 11 to 26 this year. (In addition, Mexico City and Monterrey will also serve as Mexican host cities, hosting nine other matches, including the opening match of the World Cup)

The most immediate threat is that the violence in the region could spread further, endangering the personal safety of teams, officials, fans, and ordinary people who travel to Guadalajara to watch the games.

Experts told The Athletic that it is impossible to predict whether the local turmoil will gradually subside or break out again between now and the start of the World Cup in June, because the situation within the drug cartel is evolving rapidly in real time.

"Before the World Cup, large areas of Mexico may experience fragmentation and structural disintegration of organized crime forces," said Nathan Jones, a scholar specializing in Mexican drug cartels and government responses, in a telephone interview. "This uncertainty makes it almost impossible for us to predict the future direction of events."

How is FIFA responding?

FIFA's statement to The Athletic on Monday evening was its first public statement on the riots. On the same day, senior FIFA officials spent the whole day urgently studying these events and analyzing their possible impact on the World Cup.

Although FIFA has executives stationed in Mexico City, FIFA's business scale and influence in the area are far less than its presence in the United States. FIFA has offices in South Florida and New York City. It is worth noting that FIFA President Infantino's "charm offensive" against US President Trump has not been replicated in Mexico. FIFA's relationship with Mexico is professional, but not as close as it is with the United States.

A senior FIFA official, who asked not to be named, told The Athletic on Monday that FIFA's information gathering capabilities and policy influence in Mexico are not as strong as in other countries. He added that as global news organizations focused their cameras on the violent riots in Guadalajara, FIFA headquarters was also busy discussing emergency response measures. However, a FIFA spokesperson later denied this statement, insisting that "FIFA maintains strong cooperative relations with the governments of the three host countries."

The spokesperson said: "Communication and cooperation between Mexico and the 2026 FIFA World Cup joint working group has been ongoing for more than three years. Mexico regards World Cup preparation work as a top priority for national security and national honor, and has invested corresponding resources for this purpose. FIFA has full confidence in the intelligence gathering capabilities and operational capabilities of its Mexican partners."

Previously, Guadalajara had promised to host a 39-day FIFA fan carnival during the World Cup. Now, affected by the riots, the holding of this carnival undoubtedly requires further strengthening of security and monitoring.

Currently, FIFA has asked its team in Mexico to submit a field report to fully understand the local situation, and may need to conduct further cooperation with the Mexican Football Association and government officials in the future.

If Guadalajara is not safe, can FIFA change the venue?

A well-informed source at FIFA told The Athletic on Monday that FIFA would only consider changing the venue of the World Cup match as a last resort, and would only initiate this plan after security officials and commercial partners expressed serious concerns about local security.

A FIFA spokesperson also reiterated that "security is always our top priority and FIFA remains confident in the three host countries", and said that suggesting that the organization is under any external "pressure" at this stage is misleading.

To date, FIFA has sold tens of thousands of tickets for the four World Cup matches in Guadalajara, with fans spending hundreds of dollars per ticket, plus local hotels have significantly increased prices due to the World Cup craze, and accommodation costs are also high. Last December, The Athletic analyzed hotel prices in World Cup host cities and found that the prices of some hotels in Guadalajara in mid-June were 405% higher than three weeks earlier.

This also means that if the venue is changed, fans may need to get ticket refunds. In the new host city, various transportation and security plans need to be urgently formulated in a short period of time, which is by no means an easy task. After all, competition venues and training bases usually need to be booked long in advance and are expensive.

Scholar Jones believes that a more likely solution is for the Mexican government to "adopt a saturated security strategy, dispatching troops and national guards to fully enter the region, and truly demonstrate to the outside world their ability to guarantee local security."

In fact, the Mexican authorities have taken a series of measures to quell the riots. At a press conference on Monday, Lemus said that 2,000 more soldiers had been sent to Guadalajara. He reiterated the government's firm goal of restoring order to the city and urged citizens to pay attention to statements and updates from reliable official channels. A spokesperson for Lemus also told The Athletic on Sunday that the governor's office had not received any notifications from FIFA that "should make us worry", and emphasized that "we are currently fully focused on controlling the situation."

However, the fate of the upcoming intercontinental play-offs remains uncertain. According to the schedule, New Caledonia will play Jamaica on March 27, and the winner of the two teams will face Democratic Republic of Congo on April 1. On Monday, senior FIFA officials speculated that these two play-offs may be more affected by the riots due to the proximity of the match time and the need to provide a safe and reliable environment for the event.

When asked about the specific arrangements for the play-offs on Monday evening, FIFA said that it would not comment on "various hypothetical situations and speculations", while saying that it "looks forward to working closely with the Mexican authorities to jointly host safe and reliable matches."

In addition, FIFA also hopes to ensure that Guadalajara can successfully host a number of large-scale international competitions in accordance with FIFA's relevant regulations before the World Cup, as a simulation exercise for the World Cup event. If the organizers can successfully complete the hosting of the play-offs, it may alleviate external concerns about the safety of the World Cup this summer to a certain extent.

When will the turmoil in Guadalajara subside?

This violent retaliation by the drug cartel may not become the new norm in the area. Jones described this violence as an almost "conditioned reflex automatic response" by the drug cartel after the arrest of its leader. He explained: "This is essentially the way the drug cartel sends a message to the government: 'We want to shock you, or make you pay the price. Maybe we can't save him, but we can make you pay a big enough price so that you have to think twice before taking similar actions in the future.'"

Jones predicts that this wave of violence will "last about three or four days, until the drug cartel exhausts some energy and achieves a deterrent effect on the Mexican government." In fact, by the second day of the riots, there were already signs of a calming down of the local violence.

Jones further stated: "The key question next - whether the local situation can truly return to calm - depends on whether the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) has a succession mechanism."

In other words, the key question is whether CJNG can quickly elect a new leader. If the group fails to identify a successor in time, or the Mexican authorities successfully locate and crack down on potential successors, then CJNG is likely to split into multiple factions. In this case, although the overall strength of the group will be weakened, the power struggles between factions may lead to continuous chaos in the area. Jones added: "We have seen this countless times throughout Mexico. People always think that if you cut off the head of a monster, the monster will die. But the reality is that after cutting off one head, more heads will emerge, they will fight each other, and they will continue to confront the government, eventually leading to escalating violence."

Guadalupe Cabrera, the author of a forthcoming book on "new generation" drug cartels, expressed similar concerns in a phone interview with The Athletic on Monday morning while traveling from Michoacan, which borders Jalisco, to Mexico City.

She told the magazine that although the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) "has forces throughout Mexico", it is "more like a franchise model" compared to its rival Sinaloa Cartel, which may "allow the local violence to be alleviated faster than in the past." But she ultimately admitted: "We really don't know."

Will the drug cartel target the World Cup?

Experts generally believe that this is unlikely to happen. The reason is that drug cartels are no longer just organizations engaged in drug trafficking, they have developed into huge corporate groups, trying to control all areas from illegal industries to mainstream society and even people's daily lives. Just like local restaurants and hotels see the World Cup as an important economic opportunity, drug cartels, to some extent, have the same idea.

Correa Cabrera said: "They are essentially businessmen, and what I want to say is that we are now talking about companies, businesses, and groups of entrepreneurs." She said that because of this, she believes that drug cartels will try to reduce violence during the World Cup to avoid attracting high attention from security departments or scaring away tourists who come to watch the games. Jones agreed with this view. "Normally, I think they would prefer to keep a low profile and avoid trouble," he said. "Events like the World Cup attract a large influx of people from all over the world, and the composition of organized crime groups is very complex. There may be a lot of prostitution/sex trafficking during any major sporting event, and many criminal groups will participate in it. In addition, they may also collect 'protection fees' from local groups that profit from this type of activity..."

"They may also expect to obtain a series of potential incomes from the World Cup, but at the same time, the substantial increase in law enforcement may also make them feel a little uncomfortable."

Jones also added that this situation may change if the drug cartel and the government break out into fierce conflict. But he also said: "The drug cartel may also make tactical or operational decisions, such as they may think, 'We are currently weakened and have been fighting the government for more than a month. Since they want us to calm down, maybe we will temporarily restrain ourselves and use this time to reorganize and restore our strength.'"

How will all of this affect Guadalajara's World Cup security plan?

This September, Lemus publicly talked about the security plan that the state has formulated for the World Cup.

"During the World Cup matches, the federal government will send us a large number of national guards and Mexican army personnel to fully strengthen the security defense of the Guadalajara metropolitan area," Lemus told The Athletic at the time. "We are currently building the largest intelligence center in Mexico. Once completed, Jalisco will become the state with the largest number of video surveillance points in the country."

The violent conflicts that broke out on Sunday are likely to promote the accelerated implementation of these security plans. It can be speculated that Lemus will now request Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum to provide more resources and financial support to further strengthen the security protection measures in Guadalajara. This September, Lemus revealed that the federal government has allocated funds to the three World Cup host cities in Mexico.

He also confirmed that Guadalajara will hold the FIFA Fan Festival in the city's historical center, which is currently undergoing renovation and is expected to attract 200,000 fans during the World Cup.

With the world's attention focused on it, Lemus is doing everything possible to avoid Guadalajara being caught in a negative public opinion vortex due to the riots. "Now is a time that requires unity, we must work together, and everyone must understand that we are committed to restoring peace and order in Jalisco."