TA: No one at Manchester United can replicate Casemiro's role; midfield balance shattered

Manchester United earned just 6 points in their first 6 Premier League matches this season, currently ranking 14th, a stark contrast to the team's performance under Carrick last season. The Athletic analyzed the changes.

The report states that from mid-January, when Carrick was appointed interim manager, until the end of the 2024-25 Premier League season, Manchester United accumulated more league points than any other team during that period.

The team secured 12 victories in its last 17 matches of the season, compared to only 8 wins in the preceding 23 matches, including iconic victories against strong opponents like Liverpool, Manchester City, and champions Arsenal.

For those who question why the club chose to continue trusting Carrick to lead the team, these statistics are worth remembering. However, it is precisely this glorious past that makes the harsh reality facing the current decision even more glaring.

The 1-1 draw against Tottenham last weekend means Manchester United has only 6 points from 6 league matches, marking the team's worst season start in 40 years. This week's Champions League defeat to Atlético Madrid means only 2 wins in the first 9 matches across all competitions.

The coach hasn't changed, and the squad is largely the same, but the team's performance and results have plummeted. What exactly is the problem?

Opponents have adapted, but Manchester United has failed to respond

"You can't keep playing the same way as last year," Lisandro Martínez said in an Amazon Prime interview after Manchester United's loss to Atlético. "All opponents have figured you out, they know how you play, they know every detail. If you don't make changes, next season will be a big problem."

Considering Martínez's previous criticism of Manchester United's summer transfers, these remarks sound like a call for the club to bring in new players. But this also reflects the most obvious change in Carrick's current situation: he is no longer the "unknown quantity" that opponents couldn't decipher.

Last season's success relied on sharp counter-attacking tactics, utilizing the speed and quick interplay of attackers to deliver a fatal blow before opponents could settle. Now, opponents have understood this approach, and their formations are specifically designed to compress Manchester United's sprinting space.

In the opening match of the season, Hull City set the tone with a compact, defensive strategy. As journalist Con O'Neill analyzed, Manchester United's attacking build-up now often faces opponents' low-block defense. Once opponents drop deep, Manchester United's attack struggles, with the match against ten-man Manchester City being an example.

Player shortcomings have further exacerbated the problem. After losing Sesko's aerial threat and ability to make forward runs, Manchester United's attack primarily relies on Mbeumo, Cunha, and Zirkzee. These players often drop deep to receive the ball, losing their way amidst dense opposition defenses.

Midfield defense has become vulnerable

Not renewing Casemiro's contract was the right decision in the long run. But losing this unique midfielder, combined with increased defensive demands when the team is without the ball, has created a tricky problem for Manchester United.

Casemiro's departure prompted Manchester United to rebuild their midfield this summer, signing Tielemans, Andrey Santos, and Carlos Baleba. So far, none of them have been able to replicate the Brazilian midfielder's defensive role, and Manchester United's midfield balance between attack and defense has been disrupted.

The signing of Tielemans this summer was widely regarded as a quality acquisition.

Casemiro was not known for his extensive running, mobility, or covering large areas defensively, but he perfectly fulfilled his role as the team's first line of defense, making decisive challenges and early interceptions to protect the back four.

Crucially, his excellent defensive awareness freed up Kobbie Mainoo, allowing him to focus on creative tasks in attacking play. Casemiro typically stationed himself deep in the central midfield. His running coverage wasn't strong, but he relied on excellent positioning to clear opposition attacks.

This season, Mainoo has mostly partnered with Tielemans, forming a double pivot in Carrick's 4-2-3-1 system. Neither is a pure defensive midfielder, and the problems have become evident. Both like to push forward and participate in attacks with their technical ability. Individually, this maximizes their strengths, but it leaves the defense lacking sufficient protection.

Neither player excels in terms of off-the-ball movement. Tielemans has contributed some excellent tackles and interceptions, with a standout performance against Atlético, but once opponents get past him, he struggles to track back.

To increase pressing intensity and proactively control the game, Manchester United has left large spaces in front of their defense, further amplifying this defensive vulnerability. Last season, Carrick prioritized tactical compactness over blindly fighting for pitch control; but in preseason, Manchester United experimented with a 4-2-4 high-pressing structure. This approach has been largely ineffective in the Premier League, leading to significant defensive risks without corresponding rewards. Committing more players forward to dominate the game has resulted in huge defensive vulnerabilities. The match against Tottenham illustrated the chaotic pressing system.

Santos, signed from Chelsea for £50 million, is more defensively oriented, but in the opening match of the season against Hull City, his midfield partnership with Tielemans was easily breached by the opposition, lacking intensity and physicality. Since then, he has not started in the Premier League again.

The team has high hopes for Baleba; his aggressive playing style and extensive running ability can bring balance and defensive solidity back to the midfield. The enthusiastic welcome he received from Old Trafford fans shows how desperately the team needs such a player. However, the match at the Metropolitano Stadium, where Manchester United's high press was repeatedly broken by the opposition, also proved that Baleba alone cannot immediately solve the problem.

Forward line struggling, including key stars

Under Carrick last season, Manchester United failed to score in only one match; this season, in the first 9 matches, they have already had 3 goalless games. It's not a lack of shooting opportunities: in the 2024-25 Premier League, Manchester United's average shots per game are even higher than under Carrick last season, but their shot accuracy has dropped significantly, from 39.2% to 25.2%.

Two major sources of goals have dried up: one is Casemiro's permanent departure, who scored 9 goals for the team last season; the other is Sesko's temporary injury absence, having scored 12 goals last season (7 of which came under Carrick).

The other three main goalscorers from last season – Mbeumo, Cunha, and Bruno Fernandes – have yet to find consistent form in front of goal. Part of the reason is a lack of solutions against low-block defenses, forcing many players into speculative long-range shots. High-quality goals, like Mbeumo's opener against Tottenham, are rare.

Injuries to Sesko and Amad have forced constant adjustments to the forward line. Cunha has played as a central striker in several matches, but this is not his most suitable role. Marcus Rashford primarily plays as a left winger; his speed and direct running have created many good opportunities, but he consistently lacks the final product.

Fernandes' form is particularly worrying. His running, creativity, confidence, and passing accuracy are central to Manchester United's attacking play. Apart from a hat-trick against Ipswich, Bruno has been a shadow of his former self. He remains one of the most active players in the team's high press, but when on the ball, he struggles to deliver incisive passes that break defensive lines and lacks the composure needed for high-quality execution, leading to a continuous decline in his impact on the game and frequent displays of frustration on the pitch.

On one hand, like his teammates, he has less space in front of the opponent's box; on the other hand, fatigue is also a factor. Portugal coach Jorge Jesus revealed that Fernandes is not fully recovered physically, and he was deliberately rested for one match during the international break. This has led to a re-evaluation of why his form has declined so significantly compared to last season.

Carrick has downplayed the impact of injuries, but the continuous high workload has almost inevitably taken a toll on Fernandes.

Last season, the team had no Champions League commitments, but with the Champions League starting this season, the physical demands on Fernandes and his teammates will face a greater test. The issue of fatigue is, to some extent, beyond Carrick's control. The only thing he can do is find a difficult balance between rotating players and pursuing victory in every match.

Carrick secured the permanent manager contract this summer because he could quickly solve the tactical problems inherited from his predecessor and address the team's squad weaknesses. Now, his ability to adapt on the fly and solve problems is facing an even tougher test.

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