TA: Villa in their prime, Arsenal and Man City fluctuating in EPL title race

Recently, The Athletic published a special article analyzing the competitive landscape of the Premier League this season. Overall, the title race in the Premier League this season has gradually evolved from a two-horse race to a three-way tug-of-war among Arsenal, Manchester City, and Aston Villa.

Is the Premier League now a three - horse race? 

Within two weeks, Arsenal's lead in the standings has shrunk from 6 points to just 2 points. Manchester City is now within striking distance - as is Aston Villa, who, after a poor start to the season, have won 9 of their last 10 Premier League games.

Villa's victory over Arsenal on Saturday told us a lot about Unai Emery's team. As for the league leaders, it's even harder to judge. 

On the one hand, this was Arsenal's first defeat in their last 12 Premier League matches, and it also marked the end of their 18-game unbeaten streak across all competitions since losing to Liverpool on the last day of August. On the other hand, this was their third consecutive disappointing away game: they were equalized in added time at Sunderland, failed to beat Chelsea (1-1) despite having an extra man, and now lost to Villa.

Inevitably, people will talk about the issue of mentality—or more specifically, vulnerability, as this is the default narrative surrounding Arsenal, as if people are accustomed to viewing this team in the same way they did Arsenal in the late 2000s and the early to mid-2010s—a team that often had a series of weak links in key positions along the spine. And this team, built around players like Gabriel and Rice, is far more resilient. 

Gabriel has been absent since suffering a thigh injury during Brazil's national team match last month. Saliba has missed nearly three games due to an injury that Arteta described as "strange". One of their backups, Christian Mosquera, will be out until mid-January with an ankle injury. Against Villa, they fielded their first-choice right-back, Timber, alongside Inkapie, who joined on loan from Bayer Leverkusen in the summer, as their center-back pairing. Although both players performed their duties diligently against a strong Villa side, the weaknesses in Arsenal's defense were ultimately exploited.

It is hard to imagine any other club in the world having the depth in defensive positions that Arsenal has, but without Gabriel and Saliba, their strength will inevitably be weakened. Gabriel's absence has also affected their offensive threat from set pieces. The current issue is not Arsenal's mentality, but whether they can avoid further losses before their preferred center-back pairing reunites. 

As for the other challengers, Vela's performance in recent months has not always been as outstanding as their record suggests, but their exciting back-to-back victories over Brighton and Arsenal within four days imply a belief and momentum that Chelsea and other teams have yet to demonstrate. 

Manchester City looks far less powerful and stable than when they edged out Arsenal to win the Premier League title in 2023 and 2024, but they can still keep winning. Now it's Arsenal's turn to set a standard that others will find hard to match.