TA: Welcome to the Premier League’s late-goal era

Now, the Premier League looks more competitive. Liverpool’s 84 points to win the league last season was the lowest title-winning tally since Leicester’s improbable triumph in 2015-16, with mid-table sides such as Bournemouth and Brighton stronger than ever.

Steve Bruce. Alisson. Sergio Aguero.

Stoppage-time winners are the Premier League’s most powerful narrative device, single moments that can flip the course of a season in an instant. This year, the league’s scriptwriters have leaned into the drama more than ever.

Of the 70 matches played so far, 10 have been won by stoppage-time goals, the highest share in any Premier League campaign. This is not simply an early-season quirk. When measured against any 70-match stretch, we have never seen late drama arrive so often. The closest comparison came in December 2007, when Reading and West Ham both struck at the death to raise the rolling tally to nine.

The impact of late goals becomes even clearer once stoppage-time equalisers are included, with 21 per cent of results this campaign decided late on. The season is still young, and that percentage is likely to settle as more matches are played, but the late drama has shaped the early table.

Without added time, Manchester City would sit top. They would have gained two extra points had they prevented Gabriel Martinelli’s stoppage-time equaliser in their 1-1 draw with Arsenal. Liverpool have suffered in added time with back-to-back 2-1 defeats to Chelsea and Crystal Palace, yet remain in added-time credit, thanks to winners against Newcastle and Burnley.

A lack of added time against Liverpool was the source of David Moyes’ ire after Everton’s 2-1 defeat at Anfield; he argued that the three minutes tacked on were insufficient. The fact that three minutes now seems paltry offers a clue to this season’s increase. In recent years, officials have been far more diligent about timekeeping, leading to a rise in the volume of stoppage time played.

That shift has pushed decisive moments later than ever. The average stoppage-time goal this season has arrived at 93 minutes and 31 seconds, the latest across the last eight Premier League campaigns.

Another hint that they are late lies in the identity of the goal scorers. Arsenal’s Mikel Arteta is one of a new breed of managers who like to refer to substitutes as “finishers”, a term that psychologically reinforces their importance as players who can change results rather than as peripheral squad members.

“The finishers are going to be more important this season sometimes than the starters,” said Arteta after their 2-0 Champions League victory against Athletic Club, where substitutes Leandro Trossard and Martinelli scored both goals.

The numbers have vindicated Arteta’s rebranding, with substitutes more decisive than ever. Martinelli’s strike against City was one of nine stoppage-time winners or equalisers scored by substitutes — 60 per cent of all added-time goals and already half the record for a single season.

A week later, on September 27, the Premier League set a record for the most decisive late goals by substitutes in a single day. Maxim De Cuyper, Eddie Nketiah and Eli Kroupi all came off the bench to score for Brighton, Crystal Palace and Bournemouth respectively. That same weekend also brought late strikes from starters Joao Palhinha for Tottenham against Wolves and Gabriel’s late header for Arsenal in their 2-1 victory over Newcastle.

It is now six times that substitutions have rescued a result for Arteta, just two behind Arsenal’s most successful modern manager, Arsene Wenger.

Elsewhere, Jurgen Klopp leads the way for late-impact changes, with 13 decisive goals from substitutes. Alex Ferguson only saw four such moments, but each was unforgettable. All were winners: Diego Forlan against Chelsea, John O’Shea’s strike at Anfield, Michael Owen’s dramatic derby goal against Manchester City, and Federico Macheda’s curled debut finish against Aston Villa. These moments are seared into the Premier League’s collective memory, and have probably burnished Ferguson’s reputation for late strikes beyond the statistical reality.

Whatever the underlying reason for the spike in late goals, it helps reinforce the fact that, in the Premier League, the richest moments arrive when time is at its scarcest.