The EPL table based on the last 38 games: Arsenal 2nd, Liverpool 3rd…

Manchester City to pip Arsenal for the title, Newcastle to agonisingly miss out on the Champions League and Conference League football for Chelsea? It could happen, according to our Premier League table based on the last 38 matches.

Given how a season pans out, 38 games is as good a sample size as any to judge which Premier League teams should be getting excited or nervous.

We've taken a look at each club's last 38 games in the Premier League, which goes back to January 2022, to see how they're all faring.

It's worth noting that this lacks the full-season symmetry of everyone playing each other twice but there's plenty of interesting findings to feast upon here.

While City and Arsenal are close, Liverpool's excellent form during the second half of last season means they're surprisingly high on this list.

Newcastle's vast improvement has been highlighted by their placing of fifth here, miles above Manchester United and Chelsea.

But fans of Leeds, Southampton and Everton will be concerned by the mediocrity of their teams over the past 12 months. While Everton and Leeds have shown marginal improvement, Saints are currently in the league's bottom three.

More happily, Brighton and Brentford supporters will be delighted by their side's performances in the last 38 games and there's potential for big improvement from both in the next few months.

But don't take our word for it; take your own look at our compiled table.

Note: we've not included teams that were relegated from the Premier League last season or were promoted in the summer, due to not playing 38 games, so Norwich City, Watford, Burnley, Fulham, Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest all miss out.

1. Manchester City – 85 points

2. Arsenal – 84 points

3. Liverpool – 79 points

4. Tottenham – 74 points (GD: 40)

5. Newcastle United – 74 points (GD: 26)

6. Manchester United – 63 points

7. Chelsea – 61 points

8. Brighton – 57 points

9. Brentford – 56 points

10. Leicester City – 49 points

11. Crystal Palace – 48 points

12. Aston Villa – 47 points

13. West Ham United – 38 points (GD: -11)

14. Everton – 38 points (GD: -22)

15. Wolves – 37 points

16. Leeds United – 35 points

17. Southampton – 31 points