The Numbers Game: Can Amorim end Man Utd's Palace hoodoo?

Manchester United looked to be on the up before facing Everton, but a disappointing defeat put some of the pressure back on Ruben Amorim.

The Red Devils were unbeaten in five matches before Monday, their longest such run under Amorim, but a Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall stunner sealed a 1-0 win for 10-man Everton at Old Trafford.

And United's hopes of quickly turning things around and getting back to winning ways are not helped by a trip to Crystal Palace next up.

In the league, Palace are unbeaten in three, but come into this game on the back of a 2-1 loss to Strasbourg in the Conference League.

However, Palace are a force to be reckoned with at Selhurst Park, with their unbeaten streak on home soil stretching back to February, with Everton the last team to take points off Oliver Glasner's team in front of their own fans.

They have also served as a bogey team for United in recent seasons, making the task of bouncing back that bit harder for Amorim's side.

But who does the supercomputer expect to triumph on Sunday? Here, we use Opta data to look at the key talking points.

What's expected?

Given Palace's strong form at home and United's struggles on the road in the Premier League over the last few months, it is no surprise the supercomputer is backing the Eagles for a win.

It also helps that they have had United's number in recent meetings, winning three of their last four league games against the Red Devils (D1).

That is as many wins as they had managed in their previous 30 clashes (W3 D6 L21).

And, having been winless in 13 home league games against United between 1991 and 2021 (D4 L9), Palace have now won two of their last four against them (D2).

During Palace's four-game unbeaten streak against them, United have failed to score – only against Blackburn Rovers (1920-1922) and Everton (1971-1973) have they ever failed to score in five consecutive league games.

Palace came out on top in 54.1% of the supercomputer's 10,000 pre-match simulations, with a further 23.6% chance of getting a draw and extending their recent unbeaten run.

United, meanwhile, are given just a 22.3% chance of getting back to winning ways, having not tasted victory in their last three outings.

Fortress Selhurst

Despite a wobble that saw Palace win just one of five Premier League games before last Saturday's victory over Wolves, Glasner's side are still in the mix at the top of the table.

Heading into the weekend's matches, they sit fifth and have lost just twice this term, with only league leaders Arsenal suffering fewer defeats (one).

In fact, Palace have lost just two of their last 18 league matches (W7 D9) and have kept three clean sheets in a row in the competition for the first time since October 2023.

They have accumulated 20 points from 12 games this season (W5 D5 L2), their best start to a league season since 2012-13 in the Championship (21), and best in the top-flight since 1991-92 (20).

Their fine start to the campaign stems from their home form – they are unbeaten in their last 12 Premier League home games (W6 D6), their longest ever such run in the Premier League.

Only once before have they had a longer run without defeat at Selhurst Park in their top-flight history (17 between February and December 1990).

Despite that impressive run, Glasner will be keen to improve that record further, as only two of their six home games so far in 2025-26 have ended in a victory, drawing the other four and failing to score in two of those.

Another pillar of their success has been a solid defensive base. Again, only Arsenal can boast a better record than them.

The Gunners (six) are the only side to concede fewer goals than Palace (nine) in the Premier League this season. It is the fewest goals they have conceded after the first 12 games of a league season since 1981-82 (also nine).

They have faced 14.5 expected goals against (xGA) from the 128 shots they have faced, though only 36 of those have been on target. Palace have also kept six clean sheets, with only Arsenal (seven) enjoying more shutouts.

Dean Henderson has faced 34 of those attempts on target, and according to Opta's expected goals on target (xGoT) model, has prevented 4.4 goals for Palace this term.

Amorim's London calling?

United's loss to Everton saw them lose a Premier League game at Old Trafford after seeing the opposition pick up a red card for the first time ever, winning 36 and drawing 10 of the previous 46.

And boos greeted the full-time whistle, as United's five-match unbeaten streak ended, as well as their run of four consecutive wins at home.

Amorim's side ended that game with 25 shots (six on target) as they failed to find a way past an inspired Jordan Pickford and stoic Everton defence, while they conceded from the only effort on target they faced at the other end.

In fact, the Red Devils' Premier League games have produced a higher expected goals (xG) total than any other side this season (37.1 – F20.1 A17). However, from their 20.1 xG, United have netted just 19 times – two of those were own goals.

Only Liverpool (184) have managed more attempts than United's 183 this season. Of those, 62 have hit the target; Chelsea (67) are the sole team to have done so more often, though the Blues have scored four more goals.

United's 10.4% conversion rate is the joint-seventh worst in the competition, highlighting a familiar issue that they have faced under Amorim since he took over last November.

Another worry for the Portuguese head coach will be United's stuttering away form as they have won just one of their last 11 away games in the league (D4 L6), beating Liverpool 2-1 last month.

Indeed, half of United's away wins under Amorim (2/4) have come at the home of the reigning Premier League champions (also beating Manchester City 2-1 in December 2024).

United have won just three of their last 26 top-flight away games against sides from London (D7 L16), with all three of those victories coming against Fulham. Since the start of this run in April 2023, no side have lost more away games in the capital than the Red Devils (16).

However, in their last two away games, United scored the opening goal, went behind and then avoided defeat to earn 2-2 draws with Tottenham and Nottingham Forest, respectively.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Crystal Palace – Daniel Munoz

No defender has more goal involvements in the Premier League this season than Daniel Munoz (two goals, two assists).

Both of his assists have come at Selhurst Park, though both of his goals have come away from home.

And, Munoz has been involved in 10 Premier League goals in 2025 (four goals, six assists) – four more than any other defender.

Manchester United – Bruno Fernandes

Bruno Fernandes has created more chances than any other player in the Premier League this season (31). Manchester City flyer Jeremy Doku ranks second with 27.

However, only three of these opportunities have qualified as a big chance, which is defined by Opta as an opportunity from which a player would reasonably be expected to score.

Fernandes is also one of just two players (along with Phil Foden) to create 10+ opportunities from both open play (20) and set plays (11).