The Numbers Game: Can all-attacking Chelsea break through solid Arsenal?

Just two games into the Premier League season, and we are down to just four teams with a 100% record so far.

Manchester City and Hull City could extend their perfect starts on Saturday, but only one of Arsenal or Chelsea would be able to join them on nine points if that is the case.

The reigning champions have used their defensive solidity as their base so far and have not conceded a single goal as they recorded wins over Coventry City and Aston Villa.

Things have been a little bit more chaotic at the start of Xabi Alonso's Chelsea reign, with the Blues delivering entertainment in their high-scoring matches with Fulham and Brighton.

Chelsea will be determined to lay out a statement of intent for the season as they look to improve on last season's disappointment, while Arsenal will want to stay ahead of the pack in their title defence.

But which side, if either, will walk away from the Emirates with three points? Here we use Opta data to look at the biggest talking points.

What's expected?

Both teams will be extra motivated given their perfect record so far, but the supercomputer is backing Arsenal as strong candidates to come out on top with three points.

The Gunners are unbeaten in their last nine Premier League matches against Chelsea (W6 D3).

It is their best unbeaten run against the Blues since a run of 19 between 1995 and 2005.

And Chelsea have lost their last four away Premier League games against Arsenal by an aggregate score of 11-2. Their last win there was in August 2021 (2-0).

Arsenal are also particularly strong in derby matches. They have lost just one of their last 29 Premier League London derbies (W22 D6) and are unbeaten in their last 16 (W12 D4).

The last side to have a longer unbeaten run was the Gunners themselves between August 2022 and November 2023 (17 games).

So, Arsenal are given a 57.4% chance of victory, while Chelsea came out on top in just 19.2% of the 10,000 pre-match simulations.

There is still a 23.4% chance of a draw, which would ensure both teams' unbeaten start continues.

Arsenal build out from the back

Last season, it was Arsenal's strong defensive capabilities – along with their set-piece prowess – that acted as the baseline for their title charge.

So, it is no surprise that Mikel Arteta has continued to fine-tune that strong backline as they attempt to defend their title.

Across the first two matchdays of 2026-27, Arsenal faced the fewest shots (11), the fewest shots on target (one) and allowed their opponents the lowest expected goals (0.5 xG) of any Premier League side.

Since 2022-23, the Gunners have had 16 games where their opponents have not had a shot on target – twice as many as any other side (Liverpool, eight).

They did not face a single shot on target against Villa on Monday, with Unai Emery's side firing off seven shots without testing David Raya.

Only Petr Cech with Chelsea (82), Pepe Reina with Liverpool (92), Ederson with Manchester City (106) and Peter Schmeichel with Manchester United (108) have needed fewer starts to reach 50 clean sheets for a specific club in Premier League history than Raya's 109 with Arsenal.

Indeed, since joining Arsenal in 2023-24, the Spaniard has kept more clean sheets than any other goalkeeper across Europe's big five leagues.

Since the start of March, Arsenal have kept eight Premier League clean sheets – three more than any other side. The only side in Europe's big five leagues with more is Juventus (nine).

Arsenal had a quieter transfer window than their direct rivals, but Arteta is already getting the best out of his players with minimal changes, having named the same starting XI in both league matches so far.

And it has paid off; they have now started their Premier League season with two wins in a row for the seventh time in the last eight seasons, including the last five in a row.

However, only once in the last 21 seasons have the Gunners started their campaign with three wins, doing so in 2022-23, and Arteta will be determined to add 2026-27 to that list.

Chelsea deliver entertainment

While Alonso may have hoped for a slightly more relaxed start to life at Stamford Bridge, he will not be displeased by the results so far, having also beaten Luton Town in the EFL Cup.

The Blues last won their opening four games to start a season in 2016-17 (Antonio Conte's first four) and their opening three Premier League games in 2018-19 (under Maurizio Sarri).

Chelsea are the joint-top scorers in the Premier League this season, having netted seven times across their two matches so far.

In fact, their league games in 2026-27 so far have seen 12 goals (seven for, five against), the joint-third most in a side's first two games of a campaign in the competition, behind only Arsenal in 2004-05 (13) and Leeds United in 2020-21 (14).

They could become the first side to see their opening three games of a top-flight season all have at least five goals since Arsenal in 1988-89.

Their new front three of Morgan Rogers, Joao Pedro and Cole Palmer looks like it has already gelled, with the trio among the goals in both wins.

Against Brighton on matchday two, for the second Premier League game running, all three of Palmer, Rogers and Joao Pedro got at least one goal or assist.

Joao Pedro has scored and assisted in both of Chelsea's Premier League games this season, the first player to do so in the club's first two matches of a campaign.

The only player to score and assist in each of his first three appearances of a Premier League season is West Ham's Michail Antonio in 2021-22.

He is also the fourth Brazilian to score in both of a side's first two Premier League games of a season, after Elano (Man City, 2008-09), Richarlison (Everton, 2018-19), and Gabriel Martinelli (Arsenal, 2022-23).

And Rogers has slotted right in since his big-money move from Villa; against Fulham on MD1, he became the first Blues player to have 3+ shots (three) and create 3+ chances (four) in the first half of his debut for the club on record since 2003-04.

But defensively, Alonso will have concerns.

Chelsea have gone 18 games without a clean sheet in the Premier League, their longest run without a shutout in league competition since a run of 31 matches between November 1960 and August 1961.

Emiliano Martinez came in for his debut – just hours after the club announced his signing – but he will be desperate for a first shutout with Chelsea, which will feel even sweeter against his former club.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Arsenal – Bukayo Saka

Bukayo Saka has scored in each of his last two Premier League appearances, last scoring in more consecutively between January and February 2024 (five in a row).

The last Arsenal player to score in their first three games in a season was Alexandre Lacazette in 2020-21.

Saka has won Arsenal 82 points via his goals and assists in the Premier League. This moves him past Ian Wright as the outright fourth-highest points winner for the club.

Only Thierry Henry (160), Dennis Bergkamp (112) and Robin van Persie (92) have won more Premier League points for the Gunners via their goals and assists.

Chelsea – Cole Palmer

Palmer has scored 49 goals in 98 Premier League games for Chelsea.

Only two players have reached 50 for the Blues in fewer than 100 games – Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink (84) and Diego Costa (85).

Palmer's two goals so far this season have come from 0.94 expected goals (xG), while he has had the joint-most shots (nine) and shots on target (three) among Chelsea players this season.

He also got his first assist of the campaign last time out, and he has been involved in four goals across his last three Premier League matches (three goals, one assist).