The Numbers Game: Improving Liverpool chase rare top-four feat as Arsenal visit Anfield

Arsenal were on the wrong end of a monumental upset in midweek, as they were dumped out of the EFL Cup by League Two outfit Fleetwood Town.

And the Gunners, who are only behind Manchester City on goal difference at the top of the Premier League table, face arguably their sternest test of the season to date on Sunday, as they make the trip to Anfield.

Mikel Arteta has never overseen an away Premier League victory over Liverpool, who are themselves in high spirits after winning back-to-back league games and dumping Chelsea out of the EFL Cup.

But will the Reds be able to trouble the champions? Here, we delve into the Opta insights to provide a data-powered preview for Sunday's game.

What's expected?

The Opta supercomputer makes Arsenal slight favourites for this match, and with a 41.8% win probability, they are the only away team favoured to take maximum points on matchday nine in the Premier League.

Liverpool won 32.7% of the model's pre-match simulations, while the remaining 25.5% saw the points shared.

Arsenal are still favourites to retain their title in the supercomputer's 2026-27 season projections, with a 57.7% chance of doing so. Man City are second favourites at 31.1%, with Liverpool third – a 4.8% chance of claiming the crown.

Liverpool have only won one of their last eight Premier League games against Arsenal (D5 L2), though that triumph did come by a 1-0 scoreline at home last season.

However, Anfield has certainly not been a happy hunting ground for the Gunners lately.

Arsenal are winless in their last 13 away Premier League games against Liverpool (D5 L8) since winning 2-0 in 2012-13. 

They have never gone 14 matches without a victory at Anfield in their league history, also enduring another 13-game streak between 1975-76 and 1987-88. 

That run was broken by a famous 2-0 win on the final matchday of 1988-89, which secured the old First Division title.

Should Arsenal take all three points, they will become just the second team to bring up 300 away wins in the Premier League, after Manchester United (328 ahead of this weekend's trip to Chelsea). 

However, their 18% win rate at Anfield in the competition (six victories in 34 trips) is their lowest at any venue they have visited at least 10 times.

Big tests bringing the best out of Iraola's Liverpool

Andoni Iraola endured something of a stuttering start in charge of Liverpool, who played out 2-2 draws with Newcastle United and Nottingham Forest in his first two Premier League games at the helm.

However, Liverpool have been on an upward trajectory since the start of September, with the only blip in that time being a 3-0 defeat to leaders Man City, in a game where Ryan Gravenberch's red card left them down to 10 men.

From the start of September onwards, no team has kept more Premier League clean sheets than Liverpool's four (in six games), which is only one fewer than they managed in their first 22 matches this calendar year (five).

And they have not had things easy in that time, either, as their last two Premier League games saw them beat Brentford, who started the day fourth in the table, and Brighton, who started the day third. 

Arsenal are second going into MD9, giving the Reds – who also eliminated Chelsea from the EFL Cup following a dramatic penalty shoot-out in midweek – a chance to beat three teams who started the day inside the top four in a row. 

The only previous instance of a team achieving this feat in three consecutive Premier League games saw Man Utd beat Arsenal (third), Tottenham (second) and Man City (fourth) in August and September 2009.

Dating back to his time at Bournemouth, Iraola has only lost two of his 27 Premier League games in 2026 (W12 D13), so it should come as little surprise that the Spaniard has managed to get Liverpool back on track quickly.

In fact, Iraola has the lowest defeat percentage by any Premier League manager (7%) in a single calendar year (when overseeing at least 20 games) since Jurgen Klopp lost one of his 37 games in charge of Liverpool in 2019 (3%).

In the year that followed that run, Klopp became the first Reds boss to lift the Premier League trophy. While a legitimate title challenge looks beyond Liverpool at present, a victory over the reigning champions would provide yet more proof that Iraola's methods are working.

Miserly Arsenal may deny us a classic

Traditionally, Liverpool and Arsenal have provided some of the most dramatic and goal-laden contests in Premier League history.

From Andrey Arshavin scoring four times in a chaotic 4-4 draw at Anfield in 2009, to Liverpool thumping the Gunners 5-1 in both 2014 and 2018, there have been plenty of matches to remember between these two giants of English football.

Indeed, between January 2016 and May 2025, all 19 Premier League games between Liverpool and Arsenal had at least two goals scored (78 in total, 4.1 per game). 

Last season was a different story, however, as only one goal was scored over their two head-to-head meetings – an incredible Dominik Szoboszlai free-kick that gave Liverpool a 1-0 home win in August 2025. The Reds were the only side to stop the Gunners from scoring in 2025-26.

But you get the sense Arteta would not mind if Sunday's game was similarly cagey. When it comes to defensive solidity, the Gunners are in a league of their own.

They have kept the joint-most clean sheets in the Premier League in 2026-27 (five), as well as facing the fewest shots on target (24), giving up the lowest expected goals against figure (6.2 xGA) and allowing the fewest big chances to their opponents (11). 

In 2026, they have kept a clean sheet in 56% of their league matches (15/27), the third-best tally in a year in their league history, behind 1998 (61%, 23/38) and 1903 (59%, 19/32).

Arsenal's defenders had to show their forwards how to finish last time out in the Premier League, with Ezri Konsa and Gabriel Magalhaes on target against Everton, and the absences of the injured Bukayo Saka and the suspended Max Dowman – who was sent off against Fleetwood – are far from ideal.

But just like last season, it is Arsenal's miserly defensive record that has them in title contention, and they will be determined to register a statement result in front of a hostile Anfield crowd. 

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Liverpool – Alexander Isak 

Isak has been key to Liverpool's steady improvement, scoring six goals in his last six Premier League games, which amounts to two-thirds of the Reds' overall tally across those matches (6/9). 

His minutes-per-goal ratio under Iraola, meanwhile, is the best of any player to score under the Spaniard across his career in Europe's top five leagues (one every 95 minutes).

Arsenal – Declan Rice 

Arsenal midfield duo Rice and Martin Odegaard may have to shoulder the creative responsibility here, and they were the top two players for line-breaking passes in the final third across the first eight matchdays of this Premier League season (Rice 93, Odegaard 89).

Among all non-defenders, Rice also ranks second in the competition for total progressive carries, with 85. Only his England midfield partner Elliot Anderson (88) has registered more.

However, he will face a late fitness test to see if he will be in contention at Anfield, having missed the Fleetwood game due to a knock.