The leaders and reigning champions of the Women's Super League go head-to-head in the pick of this weekend's games.
Chelsea have won each of the last six WSL titles, but their crown looks to be slipping as Manchester City hold a nine-point lead at the top after 13 matches.
Sonia Bompastor said the title race was "probably over" following Chelsea's loss to Arsenal last weekend, though she has since backtracked ever so slightly, insisting her side will "never give up" in her pre-match press conference ahead of this tie.
Chelsea have been known for their great escapes over the years, including pipping City to the title on goal difference after a superb ending to the 2023-24 season.
But Andree Jeglertz's side will be determined to ensure that does not happen this time around, especially with the chance to open up a 12-point lead at the top on Sunday.
So, who is expected to come out on top at the Etihad Stadium? Here, we use Opta data to preview the all-important clash at the top of the league.
What's expected?
Despite City's sterling form in the WSL since the two sides met on the opening day of the season, the Opta supercomputer is struggling to split them.
Jeglertz's side have a slightly higher chance of winning, triumphing in 37.7% of the 10,000 pre-match simulations, while Chelsea came out on top in 36%.
So, it stands to reason that a draw could be on the cards, with the chances of that happening being estimated at 26.4%.
But given recent history, Chelsea cannot be ruled out ahead of this clash.
City have won just one of their last eight WSL home games against Chelsea (D5 L2), a 2-0 victory in March 2023 under Gareth Taylor.
And Chelsea have won seven of their last eight games against City in all competitions (L1), beating them twice already this season, including a 1-0 victory in the Women's League Cup semi-finals on January 21.
The Blues could become the first team in WSL history to win four matches in a row against the Citizens.
City out to show title credentials
After their 2-1 defeat to Chelsea back in September, it looked like these teams might be following a similar pattern to last season.
However, Jeglertz has worked magic since then, taking City to new heights, and a win on Sunday would surely mean they have one hand on a trophy they last lifted in 2016.
They go into this weekend's clash with an 87% chance of clinching the WSL title, according to the supercomputer, with Chelsea’s hopes sitting at just 9%.
It is a stark difference to the pre-MD1 simulations that saw Chelsea as the favourites to lift the trophy for the seventh straight season, at 72% compared to City's 15%.
A win at the Etihad would see Jeglertz's side end the weekend 12 points clear of the reigning champions, and regardless of other results, they would have at least an 11-point cushion over the team in second place.
The only team to ever lead the WSL table by more than 10 points was Chelsea at the end of last season (12 over Arsenal).
And the Citizens do look unstoppable at the moment, having won each of their last 12 league games. It is the joint-third longest winning streak in WSL history.
Only City themselves between November 2023 and April 2024, and Arsenal between March and November 2022, have had longer winning streaks in the division (14 each).
City are also the top scorers in the competition this term, having netted 36 times, with their average of 2.8 goals per game significantly higher than last season's average of 2.2 (49 goals in 22 matches).
Their defence has also improved. Though they have conceded the third-fewest goals this term (11), their 0.8 goals conceded per game is down from 1.3 last season (28 goals).
The title race will not be fully decided at the start of February, but Jeglertz will be under no illusions as to just how important a City win might be.
Bompastor eyes landmark win
Chelsea's early-season dominance is in the rearview mirror now; having only dropped points in one of their first seven WSL matches this term (W6 D1), the Blues have since won just two of the following six (D2 L2).
Earlier this season, after a 1-1 draw with struggling Liverpool, Chelsea achieved the longest-ever unbeaten run in WSL history, making it 34 games without defeat in the top flight.
However, since then, they have lost two in four (W2), including a 2-0 defeat to Arsenal last time out.
They have not lost back-to-back league games since July 2015, though, losing away to Sunderland and at home to Man City.
And Chelsea are strong on the road, having taken the lead in each of their last 12 away WSL games, the joint-longest run in the competition's history (level with City – July 2016 to January 2018).
The Blues have only lost two of their last 92 away league matches when leading, losing to Liverpool in both September 2022 and May 2024 (W79 D11).
But Bompastor will be determined to ensure her side get back to winning ways this weekend, as she is looking to earn her 50th victory as Chelsea boss, in what will be her 63rd match in all competitions (D8 L5).
The only manager to reach the milestone in fewer games in charge of a WSL club was Joseph Montemurro with Arsenal, doing so in 61 matches between December 2017 and October 2019.
But, Chelsea are underperforming their expected goals figure more than any other team in the WSL this term (-5.0 – 29.0 xG, 24 goals).
Last weekend, Chelsea had 18 shots against Arsenal but only managed to get one on target, meaning 2025-26 is the first WSL campaign in which they have recorded one or fewer shots on target in multiple games (also versus Liverpool on MD9).
While they are struggling in front of goal, however, Chelsea still have the strongest defence in the league, having conceded just eight times despite facing 12.8 xGA. They have also kept a league-high six clean sheets, and Bompastor will be keen to build on that defensive solidity.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Manchester City – Khadija Shaw
Shaw has scored 13 goals this season, already more than the two WSL top scorers netted in the whole of last season (Shaw herself and Alessia Russo – 12 each).
The Jamaican has netted the winning goal in four of the Citizens' last six matches and has 22 winning goals to her name in the WSL, a figure only team-mate Vivianne Miedema can better (28, Sam Kerr – 21).
Chelsea – Kerolin
Kerolin has scored (three goals) or assisted (three assists) on each of her last five WSL appearances, despite starting only two of those matches.
The Brazilian boasts the best minutes-per-goal-involvement rate of any player in the 2025-26 WSL, at an average of one every 53 minutes.