The Premier League xG table: Evaluating the attacking performance of every club

In case anyone needed reminding, scoring goals helps you win games of football.

For those who like to dig a little deeper, it is interesting to see how often a team scores goals relative to the opportunities they create. Yes, your team might rocket a 40-yard strike into the top corner from time to time, but how sustainable is that method of attack across a season?

That's right, we're talking about expected goals (xG).

For those that need a refresher, xG simply measures the likelihood of a shot becoming a goal before the player shoots — accounting for many factors, including the type of shot, the distance from goal and the angle it is taken from.

Across a season, xG can provide greater predictive value in the number of goals a team will score in the future than… actual goals. However, as the season draws to a close, there is less time for things to balance themselves out across all Premier League teams.

For one team, some excellent finishing, some calamitous opposition goalkeeping, or just a massive dollop of luck might be the core reason for their overperformance in front of goal.

For others, the opposite might be true, and some teams might feel aggrieved that they have not converted more of their chances across the season.

Looking at each side's non-penalty goals scored versus their xG, where are the interesting quirks?

Fulham are flying high, Leeds, Aston Villa, Brentford and Bournemouth have obeyed the xG rules — and Chelsea are begging for the season to be over…

Arsenal (13.9 goals above expectation)

Any side who pushes Manchester City all the way for a Premier League title will often have some degree of overperformance in front of goal.

No side has scored above their non-penalty xG more than Arsenal — albeit with one more game played than City — with nearly 14 goals scored above expectation based on the quality of chances they have had. Unsurprisingly, this is the most sustained goalscoring overperformance since Mikel Arteta became manager.

Two players who encapsulate Arsenal's finishing quality most have been Gabriel Martinelli and Martin Odegaard — both of whom are enjoying the most prolific campaigns of their careers.

For captain Odegaard in particular, the Norwegian has a penchant for a goal from distance, intelligently positioning himself in space to get a clear shot on goal. This was shown in Arsenal's most recent clash with Newcastle, as Odegaard pulls away to have an extra second on the ball.

Is this sustainable for Odegaard to be consistently scoring from distance in the long term? Probably not.

Will any Arsenal fan care if it means them lifting a Premier League title? Not a chance.

Will the xG Premier League title be a consolation should they finish second in the real table? Almost certainly not.

Manchester City (13.1 goals above expectation)

Two words — Erling Haaland. Shall we move on?

Granted, it isn't just Haaland's finishing that is contributing to City's overperformance — with Phil Foden bagging five goals more than expected in the Premier League — but having the world's most clinical striker is naturally going to boost your numbers.

A typical xG model has good predictive power for mere mortals, but we've worked out by now that the Norwegian powerhouse is otherworldy and doesn't operate by conventional standards.

At the start of the season, there was a case to be made that Haaland's goalscoring overperformance couldn't continue at the same level as it has in recent seasons.

That might still be true in the long term, but Haaland's numbers show how lucrative his opportunities are — with an xG per shot of 0.19 meaning his average chance quality has a 19 per cent likelihood of being converted.

City craft some of the best attacking phases of play in the Premier League and they score above expectation — it's just unfair, isn't it.

Tottenham Hotspur (11.5 goals above expectation)

A further example of how having an elite striker helps when it comes to scoring goals — who knew?

Spurs being the third-biggest overperformers is largely thanks to one man. In previous seasons, that player was Son Heung-min, who regularly had the title of the Premier League's biggest xG defier but, true to form, Son has made a simple pass to his team-mate, gifting the current title to Harry Kane.

No Premier League player has outperformed their xG more than Kane this season, with 0.63 non-penalty goals per 90, his best attacking rate since 2017-18. Kane has taken nearly a quarter of Spurs' total shots this season and converted at a typically above-average rate.

In a season in which Kane overtook Jimmy Greaves to become Spurs' leading goalscorer — and became England's out-and-out top goalscorer in March — there was plenty for the 29-year-old to celebrate on a personal level.

Without him, Spurs' attacking output would have been far worse off.

Fulham (9.4 goals above expectation)

In absolute terms, Fulham's nine goals scored above expectation are right up there with the best in the league, although it's important to acknowledge their volume of shots relative to the teams above them.

Therefore, looking at the share of total goals above expectation, Fulham have scored 26 per cent more goals than they were expected to based on the quality of their chances — a higher rate than any other side in the Premier League.

As you can see by their average shot quality — denoted by their xG per shot — Fulham haven't crafted the most clear-cut opportunities but have certainly made the most of them when they have.

Looking at their expected goals on target (xGOT) — which provides a modified value of an on-target shot after the player shoots — Fulham have added the most value to their strikes when compared with their (pre-shot) xG by 6.4 goals.

Put simply, those long-distance efforts from Willian (five goals from 3.1 xG) and Manor Solomon (4 goals from 2.4 xG) were executed so well that they boosted the probability of scoring more than most.

A job well done for Marco Silva's men, but something to be aware of next season as the chances of a similar output would appear unlikely.

Liverpool (1.4 goals above expectation)

After Fulham, we see a bit of a drop to Liverpool, who are hovering above expectation — just.

Liverpool's Jekyll & Hyde season has seen them beat teams 9-0 and 7-0 but fail to score in nine of their 35 Premier League games. That has culminated in a minor overperformance of 1.4 goals overall — largely from the work of Roberto Firmino, whose four goals above expectation is more than any other Liverpool player.

At the other end of the scale, Darwin Nunez's bulldozing style has meant a lack of finesse in his finishing at times and he's scored three goals fewer than expected. However, with a 0.64 non-penalty xG per 90 the highest in the Liverpool squad, the chances he is getting look sustainable.

As The Athletic have previously analysed, the important thing is that he is getting in the right areas — expect to see an uptick in his and Liverpool's goalscoring output next season.

Leicester City (1.3 goals above expectation)

Leicester are similarly just above expectation in their goalscoring — so why are they camped at the bottom of the Premier League table?

Their 1.3 non-penalty goals per 90 is good enough for mid-table from an attacking perspective, with enough firepower in the squad to pose a threat to opposition defences in the form of Harvey Barnes, Jamie Vardy, James Maddison and Co.

Unfortunately for them, the problem has been at the other end of the pitch, with only Leeds United and Everton averaging a worse xG against rate per 90.

If Leicester do go down at the end of the season, it won't be because of their attack.

Crystal Palace (1.0 goal above expectation)

If we asked you who had the highest “big chance” conversion — defined by Opta as a situation where a player should reasonably be expected to score — would you have answered Crystal Palace?

Granted, their raw tally of 46 big chances created is the third-lowest in the Premier League, but their 54 per cent conversion rate holds up very nicely.

When the threat of relegation became real in recent months, it has certainly been useful to put away those clear-cut opportunities to help steer them away from the drop zone. In particular, Eberechi Eze's six big chances scored from seven opportunities leads the way for Palace, ahead of Wilfried Zaha's five from 10 big chances.

Palace have been purring in front of goal since Roy Hodgson returned, with their 12 non-penalty goals in seven games accounting for more than one-third of their season's tally. Overall, they have converted their chances at a rate you would expect them to across the course of the season.

Leeds, Aston Villa, Brentford and Bournemouth

Let's bucket these four teams together as sides who have scored within one goal of expectation based on the quality of chances they have generated.

The xG gods like this — well done Leeds, Aston Villa, Brentford and Bournemouth.

Nottingham Forest (1.7 goals below expectation)

Forest have performed at almost par in front of goal this season, scoring below expectation by nearly two goals. That being said, a goal can make all the difference when you're fighting for Premier League survival at the bottom of the table.

One thing to note is that more than one-third of Forest's total efforts (36 per cent) have been outside the box — the sixth-highest share in the division.

From a shooting perspective, you have Brennan Johnson at one end of the scale, who has taken to the top tier of English football like a duck to water with eight goals scored but added the most value to his efforts (2.3 goals) when looking at his xGOT.

At the other end of the scale, Taiwo Awoniyi's finishing has been far from clinical. Despite six goals scored, Awoniyi has ultimately scored the efforts he should be scoring on average but offered little to turn low-quality chances into high-quality strikes on goal.

Southampton (3.4 goals below expectation)

Considering Southampton are rooted to the foot of the table, you would think their underperformance in front of goal would be more significant — having only scored three goals fewer than expected this season.

The issue has been their ability to generate chances in the first place, with their 0.9 xG per 90 being the lowest in the Premier League. What might be contributing to this? Well, one metric no team should enjoy being top of is the highest share of shots outside the penalty area. Thirty-nine per cent of their shots have been hit from outside the box.

With 39 per cent of their efforts coming outside the penalty area, it is of little surprise to see that Southampton are simply not working the ball into lucrative zones to score.

Yes, they have a cheat code in James Ward-Prowse from free kicks, but that alone won't keep you in the Premier League. He has taken 32 shots from outside the area, more than any other Southampton player ahead of Romain Perraud (18).

Newcastle (3.4 goals below expectation)

Newcastle seem to be an interesting case of a slice of bad luck at times this season.

Let's be clear, Eddie Howe's men have had a phenomenal campaign with some of the strongest attacking numbers in the division, but they could have had a few more if they hadn't hit the post 16 times, led by Callum Wilson and Joelinton, who have each struck the woodwork three times. They've hit the woodwork more than any other side in the Premier League this season — helping to explain their goalscoring underperformance relative to their chances created.

Newcastle fans will hardly lose sleep over the fact their team have scored 3.4 goals fewer than they should have done considering the chances they have generated.

Instead, they should be pleased with the fact that their non-penalty xG of 1.8 per 90 is the fifth-highest in the Premier League this season — which is a greater indication of future outcomes to carry through into next season.

Brighton (5.1 goals below expectation)

Ah, the poster boys of xG underperformance for the past few seasons.

Roberto De Zerbi has got Brighton firing since he arrived in September, with a non-penalty xG per 90 of 1.9 good enough for the third-best attack in the Premier League.

As you can see below, Brighton experienced a rare overperformance in their goalscoring shortly after De Zerbi arrived before a sharp descent in recent weeks — even despite their 6-0 victory over Wolves in April.

It's important to reiterate how Brighton's overall attacking output has improved significantly, but that underperformance still lingers, relative to their chances created.

One core explanation for this is that Brighton have been particularly wasteful from set pieces. Their 54.8 set plays per goal places De Zerbi's men as the least efficient team in the Premier League from (non-penalty) dead-ball situations.

One to work on over the summer, perhaps.

Wolves (5.6 goals below expectation)

Wolves' issues in front of goal has been their key theme from this season.

In March, they had the unwanted quirk of going one year without a recognised centre-forward scoring a goal in the Premier League.

How did that happen? Well, Wolves currently have the lowest shot quality in the league, with an xG per shot of just 0.08.

Only Southampton have a higher share of shots outside the box, which tells its own story.

When you're relying on thunderbolts from Ruben Neves — as Wolves' most prolific shooter this season with 62 non-penalty shots — you know you're bound to underperform your goalscoring output against expectation.

Manchester United (7.5 goals below expectation)

“We know the problem. The problem is we don't score,” said Luke Shaw after their last-minute defeat to Brighton last week. “In the first half, we had three or four big chances that we should be scoring. That's happened a lot of times this season. The game is completely different if we score early on.”

A succinct and — unfortunately for United — accurate assessment from Shaw, with The Athletic recently analysing their struggles in front of goal in recent weeks.

Despite generating the sixth-highest big chances in the league this season, United's big chance conversion is the fifth lowest in the division, highlighting their wastefulness in front of goal. This is shown in the graphic below, which underlines their biggest goalscoring underperformance across a 10-game average for the past three seasons.

While Marcus Rashford has had a prolific campaign in front of goal, the light has been shone brightly on United's need for an out-and-out centre forward next season.

West Ham (8.7 goals below expectation)

One of the key explanations for West Ham's troubles in front of goal is their inability to work the goalkeeper as much as they should.

No Premier League team has a lower on-target shot percentage than West Ham this season. It doesn't matter if you get into good, bad or average positions to score, if you cannot hit the ball within the frame of the goal then you're naturally going to run into problems.

Fortunately for West Ham, they have done enough to keep relegation at arm's length, but David Moyes might want to get his squad doing some intense shooting practice during pre-season.

Everton (9.6 goals below expectation)

Could Everton have been safe by now if they had put away more of their opportunities?

Curiously, they managed five goals in a single game against Brighton for the first time this season — more than their previous six Premier League games under Sean Dyche — when they might have wished to spread the goals out a tad.

Only Wolves (27) have scored fewer than Everton's 29 non-penalty goals this campaign, which tells you everything.

Neal Maupay has failed to find form in an Everton shirt, underperforming against his xG for the fourth season running in the Premier League.

Meanwhile, not consistently having your talisman has not helped at all, but Dominic Calvert-Lewin has not converted the chances he has had, underperforming more than any of his Everton team-mates this season as he struggled for fitness and form.

If not for that recent 5-1 thumping of Brighton, Everton would have most likely been rooted to the bottom of the xG table — but instead, they have left the mantle to…

Chelsea (10.1 goals below expectation)

Oh, Chelsea.

The Athletic recently analysed Chelsea's struggles in front of goal, from the poor finishes to the lack of communication between team-mates. Three managers later, they are no further forward.

One theme in their season has been their inability to profit from dangerous situations. While they have often had the ball for long periods, they have struggled to turn that dominance into a shot — let alone a goal.

To rub salt in the wounds, no Premier League player has underperformed his xG more than Kai Havertz, scoring 4.2 goals fewer than he should based on the quality of his chances.

With football's obsession with Hey Jude in recent seasons, it's worth borrowing a line from the song.

While Jude takes a sad song and makes it better, Chelsea take a happy forward and make them worse… in front of goal. Torres, Morata, Werner, Lukaku, Aubameyang, and now Kai Havertz have forgotten where the back of the net is.

Chelsea should simply draw a line under this season — it has been one to forget.